Trump鈥檚 wins underscore his strengths 鈥� and weaknesses
| Pembroke, N.H.
Donald Trump鈥檚 dominant performance in the New Hampshire primary confirms what already seemed clear 鈥� that the former president appears headed toward his third straight Republican nomination.聽
But embedded in Tuesday鈥檚 11-point victory over Nikki Haley, the former president鈥檚 only remaining major rival for the GOP nomination, were some flashing red lights for Mr. Trump鈥檚 prospects in November, when he is likely to face President Joe Biden again.
In short, Mr. Trump is both strong and weak as a general election candidate. He engenders fierce loyalty among his 鈥淢ake America Great Again鈥� base and already has lined up nearly the entire Republican establishment in Washington behind him. At the same time, a not-insignificant portion of the GOP electorate is leery of another Trump nomination, as seen in the New Hampshire results. And many independent voters 鈥� who may decide the winner in November 鈥� are deeply opposed to his candidacy.
Why We Wrote This
With New Hampshire being a battleground state, the results there provide some signals about November. While Donald Trump won strong support from Republicans, he was far less popular among independents.
Overall, Mr. Trump beat Ms. Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, 54% to 43%.聽That would typically be seen as a solid win in an open primary 鈥� that is, a contest with no incumbent running. 鈥淵ou鈥檇 say, 鈥榃ow, this is someone who has a chunk of the party,鈥欌�� says Chris Galdieri, a political scientist at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire.
But Mr. Trump is in many ways 鈥渞unning as a quasi-incumbent seeking another term,鈥� Professor Galdieri adds 鈥� which casts the results in a different light. 鈥淲hat if Joe Biden had performed like this last night?鈥�
As a battleground state, New Hampshire in some ways presents a good approximation of the national electorate. In that context, the showed Mr. Trump鈥檚 weakness among self-identified independents, who made up 44% of voters who turned out for Tuesday鈥檚 Republican primary. Ms. Haley won 58% of that cohort and beat Mr. Trump among college graduates 56% to 42%.聽
Still, Mr. Trump beat Ms. Haley among two other key demographics: women (51% to 47%) and suburban voters (55% to 42%). Female suburban voters are seen as a crucial battleground demographic 鈥� a cohort that could swing the November election.
On Tuesday, 鈥渨hat Trump needed to do in some ways was simple: Get conservatives out to vote,鈥� says Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire. 鈥淚t was Haley who was trying to duct tape this weird coalition of voters together who don鈥檛 have a lot in common.鈥澛�
That coalition included some Democrats who had reregistered as Republicans to vote for her, as well as voters registered as 鈥渦ndeclared鈥� 鈥� both legal moves, but not a big enough base of support to win in a GOP primary contest.聽
For Mr. Biden, too, Tuesday鈥檚 results contained some positives. The president won the Democratic primary easily as a write-in candidate, after the national party committee opted to skip New Hampshire and make South Carolina its first official nominating contest. Mr. Biden didn鈥檛 campaign here, but聽Democratic activists staged a robust write-in campaign.聽The president beat Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota 54% to 19% in a preliminary count, as write-in ballots continue being processed by hand.聽
But New Hampshire had some warning signs for the president. Some 10% of those who voted in the Democratic primary said that they would not support Mr. Biden if he鈥檚 the nominee.聽
The president also faces continuing challenges with the left flank of his party. On Tuesday, at an event in suburban Virginia focused on reproductive rights 鈥� a strong issue for Democrats 鈥� protesters opposed to U.S. support for Israel in the war in Gaza interrupted the president more than a dozen times, shouting 鈥済enocide Joe.鈥澛�
The main show Tuesday, however, was the Trump-Haley smackdown. And Team Biden is suiting up, signaling that it sees the general election as game on.聽聽
Two top Biden White House aides 鈥� Jen O鈥橫alley Dillon and Mike Donilon 鈥撀�. Ms. Dillon ran Mr. Biden鈥檚 successful 2020 bid, and Mr. Donilon, a longtime Biden insider and speechwriter, was another key 2020 adviser.聽
For now, Mr. Trump has to focus on the coming primaries, where he appears to be in a strong position.聽In independent-heavy New Hampshire, Ms. Haley got the head-to-head contest she wanted after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out, but still couldn鈥檛 pull off an upset. After losing the vast majority of self-identified Republicans to the former president, Ms. Haley鈥檚 path forward looks far more daunting.
Yet聽Ms. Haley is vowing to battle on in her home state of South Carolina, where she served as governor and which holds the next Republican primary, Feb. 24.聽In his New Hampshire victory speech, Mr. Trump did little to hide his irritation, slamming his former ambassador to the United Nations as an 鈥渋mposter.鈥澛�
How long Ms. Haley can keep her campaign alive is an open question. The answer is likely to center on how long her money holds out, both in her campaign treasury and in the super political action committee supporting her. One reason to stay in as long as possible, supporters say, is that she could step in if an unexpected event were to derail Mr. Trump鈥檚 bid late in the cycle. The former president is facing聽91 felony counts in four criminal cases.
According to exit polls, the majority of voters in New Hampshire said they believed Mr. Trump would be fit for the presidency even if convicted of a crime, by 54-42%. Among those who said he would not be fit, 83% voted for Ms. Haley, while 13% voted for Mr. Trump 鈥� suggesting at least some portion of the former president鈥檚 supporters could change their minds, depending on what happens.
For the voters of Pembroke, New Hampshire, simply engaging in the quadrennial exercise of voting in the nation鈥檚 first primary was itself cause for enthusiasm. At the local public high school, Democrats and Republicans alike freely discussed their choices with a reporter.聽
鈥淚鈥檓 looking for somebody to change the way our government functions,鈥� said Michael Johns, a Trump voter. 鈥淎ll the debt, all the wars, it鈥檚 time to stop that.鈥澛�
But another voter, who said he cast his ballot for Ms. Haley, had a different take. 鈥淚鈥檓 not a Trump fan,鈥� said Scott, who declined to give his last name. 鈥淗is rhetoric brings chaos.鈥澛�
