Can Nikki Haley exploit Trump vulnerability in suburbs?
| PEMBROKE, N.H.
Here in suburban Pembroke, New Hampshire, all eight flyers that arrived at the home of聽some聽registered Republicans this week focused on former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley: four in support, four against.
And with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis largely skipping New Hampshire to focus on later primaries, Ms. Haley鈥檚 assertion that 鈥渋t鈥檚 a two-person race鈥� for the GOP presidential nomination now has a kernel of truth, at least here in the Granite State. Her聽third-place finish in Monday鈥檚 Iowa caucuses, just behind Governor DeSantis and well behind former President Donald Trump, was enough to keep going.
This has been the Haley game plan all along: Make it through Iowa, then go for broke in New Hampshire. Polls show her running second here,聽. The battleground demographic is suburban voters 鈥� particularly those in the southeastern region, two-thirds of the state鈥檚 population.
Why We Wrote This
Suburban voters often play a pivotal role in U.S. elections. They were key to Joe Biden鈥檚 presidential win in 2020. Nikki Haley hopes they鈥檒l propel her to a surprise win in New Hampshire鈥檚 Republican primary.
鈥淚f she has a chance, it is in the suburban part of the state 鈥� especially in the more upper-class, more highly educated towns,鈥� says Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
Suburban voters in Joe Biden鈥檚 2020 victory over Mr. Trump. And聽聽of precinct-level results and entrance polls from the Iowa caucuses showed that Mr. Trump may be vulnerable among聽those same voters in the current cycle. If that plays out nationally, the implications for the general election could be huge if Mr. Trump is the GOP nominee.
Ms. Haley鈥檚 pitch here needs to emphasize electability, political analysts say. In a quick appearance Thursday at the iconic Robie鈥檚 Country Store in Hooksett, she did just that.
In general election polls, 鈥淭rump is tied with [President Joe] Biden, and on a good day, he might be up by two,鈥� Ms. Haley says in a brief version of her stump speech, referring to聽. 鈥淲e beat Biden by 17 points!鈥�
On average, a Haley-Biden general election聽, similar to Trump-Biden matchups.
Haley鈥檚 appeal with suburban voters
Robie鈥檚 may not seem the epitome of suburbia. Nestled along railroad tracks and the Merrimack River in the southeastern New Hampshire town of Hooksett, this family-run small business oozes rural charm.
But Hooksett is within commuting distance of Boston 鈥� and in the Boston media market, which qualifies it as a suburb. Jan Dodge, a retiree who came in to get lunch and see Ms. Haley, worked for a private equity firm in Boston for more than 25 years while living in Hooksett.
What does she think of Ms. Haley?
鈥淚 like that she has a foreign policy knowledge and would support Ukraine, whereas Trump would just hand it over,鈥� Ms. Dodge says, alluding to Ms. Haley鈥檚 two years as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under Mr. Trump.
The space at Robie鈥檚 is small and packed 鈥� reporters and cameras may well outnumber voters 鈥� and many of the voters here are retired. Darcy Tuoti worked in public health, and her husband, Frank, was a machinist. They鈥檙e both registered Republicans and voted for Mr. Trump in the past. But Ms. Tuoti says she considers herself an independent 鈥� and will probably vote for Ms. Haley on Tuesday.
鈥淪he just seems like the person who can hopefully unite the country most,鈥� Ms. Tuoti says.
On Friday, news broke that GOP Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, a former nomination rival, would endorse Mr. Trump. This has heightened speculation that Mr. Trump might put Senator Scott, who is Black, on the ticket. Given the ex-president鈥檚 running controversies around race 鈥� including false suggestions that Ms. Haley isn鈥檛 eligible to run because of her Indian heritage (she is U.S.-born) 鈥� having a Black running mate could help Mr. Trump鈥檚 image.
One battleground: 鈥渦ndeclared鈥� voters
Earlier this week, Ms. Haley held a rally in the historic hotel at Bretton Woods, in the shadow of Mount Washington. This was well north of the state鈥檚 Boston commuter region, but there was still a suburban vibe to the crowd of about 150 people who had braved a snowstorm to attend: well-dressed and polite.
In fact, and so going for those votes can be a squishy proposition.
Being suburban 鈥渋s a state of mind more than anything else,鈥� says Chris Galdieri, a political scientist at St. Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire.
In interviews, attendees at the Bretton Woods event echoed those of the Robie鈥檚 crowd. Some Republicans and 鈥渦ndeclared鈥� voters who previously supported Mr. Trump said they were ready for someone without the baggage. Some were disaffected Biden voters, like Michelle Overhoff, assistant principal at Groveton High School in northern New Hampshire.
Ms. Overhoff said she is unhappy with what she calls 鈥渓agging education reform鈥� and the loss of COVID funding in an area she calls 鈥渟ocioeconomically challenged.鈥�
鈥淲ith Trump, the economy was good,鈥� says Ms. Overhoff, a self-described independent. 鈥淏ut as an educator, I value integrity and acceptance of all. And civility.鈥�
She said she鈥檚 leaning toward Ms. Haley in the primary 鈥� a vote she can make as an 鈥渦ndeclared鈥� voter.
But not everyone at Bretton Woods was impressed by Ms. Haley 鈥� especially when she didn鈥檛 take questions from the audience.
鈥淪he didn鈥檛 rock my world,鈥� says David Magnone, a ski resort contractor from nearby Whitefield.
Ms. Haley鈥檚 support for foreign wars didn鈥檛 persuade his companion, Melissa Boyd: 鈥淥ur battles are not overseas,鈥� she said. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e from within.鈥�
Ultimately, Ms. Haley faces a steep climb in trying to overtake Mr. Trump on Tuesday, says Dr. Smith, the University of New Hampshire pollster. About 40% of New Hampshire Republicans are solidly for the former president, and Ms. Haley can鈥檛 just rely on suburban voters to do the job, he says.
鈥淪he has to not only get them to come out, she has to expand from that,鈥� Dr. Smith says. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 the harder challenge for her. How do you get people who don鈥檛 really dislike Trump to vote for you?鈥�
