Since 2022 Trump has rebounded steadily. What happened?
| Manchester, N.H.
Not that听long ago, many Republican voters were uncertain about former President Donald Trump.
In interviews and surveys, even self-identified Trump fans expressed interest in finding a 鈥渇resh face鈥� 鈥� someone who could carry his policies into the future. Someone untainted by the riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Someone without all the legal troubles and the unfiltered mouth.听
鈥淭rumpism without Trump,鈥� the mantra went.听
Why We Wrote This
As New Hampshire votes, the departure of Ron DeSantis underscores how dominant Donald Trump has become in the Republican nomination race. Yet back in 2022, his rebound looked far from certain. What explains the shift?
For a time, Ron DeSantis looked like he might fit the bill. In the wake of the 2022 midterms, in which the Florida governor won reelection by 19 points even as many Trump-promoted candidates lost, he briefly led in GOP presidential primary polls.
Today, however, the Floridian is out of the race, having endorsed Mr. Trump after a dismal campaign that never could find its footing. And on the eve of the New Hampshire primary 鈥撎齨ow a two-person race between Mr. Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley 鈥� .听A majority of Republicans say they support another Trump nomination, despite 鈥� or, for many supporters, because of 鈥� the听91 felony counts he faces in four criminal cases.
The former president鈥檚 resurgent hold on his party, as reflected in last week鈥檚听strong performance in the Iowa caucuses听and a recent flood of high-level endorsements, can be attributed to a combination of factors. Polls suggest a circling-the-wagons response from voters after his criminal indictments. The passage of time may have softened some voters鈥� memories of the chaotic final months of his presidency.
At the same time, given the strength of Mr. Trump鈥檚 persona, for better or worse, 鈥淭rumpism without Trump鈥� may never have really been a workable concept.听Mr. DeSantis was hamstrung, too, by his reluctance to bash Mr. Trump, lest he alienate the people he hoped would migrate to him.
Ultimately, however, many Republicans may have found their way back to supporting Mr. Trump simply because they do not want President Joe Biden to win reelection 鈥� and they believe Mr. Trump is the strongest candidate to take him on.
鈥淩epublicans believe [Mr. Trump] deserves another chance,鈥� says Scott Jennings, a political adviser in the George W. Bush White House. 鈥淭hey believe he was treated unfairly, and they think [President] Biden is that weak.鈥�
Haley and the party鈥檚 old-style wing听
Ms. Haley, the remaining Trump rival still in the race, has offered a more direct contrast in both style and substance than Mr. DeSantis did. Much of her platform is a kind of throwback to old-style establishment Republicanism that stands for fiscal responsibility, American leadership in the world, and conservative values.听
As United Nations ambassador for two years under Mr. Trump, Ms. Haley also represents a global perspective, in direct contrast to the 鈥淎merica First鈥� posture of both Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis. And more than a few Haley fans, men and women, say that it鈥檚 about time the United States has a female president.听
Ms. Haley frequently points to polls showing her beating Mr. Biden in a head-to-head matchup by double digits.
General election polls show听听on average, which dampens Ms. Haley鈥檚 argument of electability 鈥� perhaps her strongest selling point. For many New Hampshire Republicans, polls showing Mr. Trump winning in November are all they need in deciding what to do Tuesday.听
Mr. Trump is a 鈥渃ad; we know that,鈥� says Joe Hollen, a Trump supporter from Weare who works in information technology. But 鈥渨ith all these stupid lawsuits, yeah, they鈥檙e trying to get him. And I鈥檇 want him as a boss,鈥� he adds. 鈥淗e knows how to run things. He鈥檚 a fighter.鈥澨�
Dueling views of Trump
There are many ways to look at Mr. Trump. In one view, he鈥檚 damaged goods, twice impeached, multiply indicted, and only a few years younger than the octogenarian Mr. Biden. Critics note his verbal gaffes, such as confusing Ms. Haley with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. And critics say听his rhetoric seems more unhinged than ever, replete with a verbal nod about being a dictator in a second term听鈥� but only 鈥渙n Day 1.鈥澨�
But go to a big Trump rally in a sports arena, like the one in Manchester last Saturday night, and it can feel like 2016 all over again. He draws an audience of thousands 鈥� far surpassing the mere hundred or so who show up for Haley events 鈥� and commands the stage for an hour and a half with vigor and, at times, entertainingly.听
Some analysts say Mr. Trump has once again benefited from a divided opposition 鈥� with anti-Trump Republicans unable to settle on a single candidate early enough to create a competitive contest before it was too late.
鈥淭he party didn鈥檛 coalesce around one alternative to Trump, and that鈥檚 what the skeptics needed,鈥� says Shana Gadarian, a political scientist and expert on voter psychology at Syracuse University.
But Mr. Trump鈥檚 early vulnerability in the polls, if it ever really existed, also presented his rivals with a deceptively difficult task: winning over Trump fans who may have been open to an alternative but also didn鈥檛 want to hear any criticism of the former president.
Certainly, there鈥檚 a small slice of the party, 鈥淣ever Trumpers,鈥� who won鈥檛 vote for him 鈥� and will either write in a different Republican, vote for Mr. Biden, or stay home.
But those in the dominant cohort of Republicans听either have always been enthusiastic about Mr. Trump or say they will vote for him grudgingly if he鈥檚 the nominee 鈥� flaws and all.听
They know what Mr. Trump is about and say they鈥檙e willing to live with those real or perceived flaws. The main goal is to defeat what they view as Mr. Biden鈥檚 increasingly left-leaning policies 鈥� including an 鈥渙pen鈥� southern border and student loan forgiveness 鈥� and continuing economic challenges.听
鈥淧eople have to make choices, and can do mental gymnastics to justify voting a particular way,鈥� says Ms. Gadarian.听
A prime example: evangelical 海角大神s who support Mr. Trump foremost because he appointed the Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade 鈥� a long-held goal of opponents of abortion rights.听
鈥淵ou can say, for example, that character isn鈥檛 really that important; because the other side is so bad, we must fight fire with fire,鈥� Ms. Gadarian says.听
What next as New Hampshire votes?
Analysts also say that concerns about the future of American democracy in a second Trump term are prominent to Democratic elites more than to everyday voters. Ask voters in New Hampshire what they care about, and responses include the cost of home heating oil, health insurance, and the flood of migrants at the southern border, not whether Mr. Trump is a wannabe dictator.听
In tomorrow鈥檚 vote, one听wild card is independents 鈥� the 40% of the electorate registered as 鈥渦ndeclared,鈥� who can vote in either primary.听Another wild card is the large pool of new potential voters: people who have moved into the state since 2020, plus young people now old enough to vote 鈥� up to 22% of the state鈥檚 electorate,听.
Mr. Trump may seem to have the nomination locked up,听but New Hampshire has a history of surprises in its first-in-the-nation primary, and if Ms. Haley can come anywhere close to Mr. Trump, that may be enough for her to stay in the race.听
But the South Carolina GOP primary on Feb. 24 could be tough for Ms. Haley, despite her status as a former governor. Mr. Trump has already locked up the endorsements of a slew of prominent Palmetto State politicians, including the current governor. Many appeared onstage with the former president at the Manchester rally last Saturday. And the day before, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, a onetime rival for the GOP presidential nomination, endorsed Mr. Trump at a rally in Concord.
