Nikki Haley has some momentum. Her challenge is still immense.
| Bamberg, S.C.
After blessing the lunch of fried chicken and black-eyed peas with a prayer and ordering a sweet tea, Sharon Carter places her palms on the red-and-white checkered tablecloth at Rusty and Paula鈥檚, the main eatery in Bamberg, South Carolina, and explains why she鈥檚 in such a good mood.聽
Her preferred candidate in the 2024 Republican presidential primary, Bamberg native and former South Carolina Gov.聽Nikki Haley, is having a moment. With a little over one month to go before the first nominating contest in Iowa, the polling, fundraising, and energy are all on the upswing for Ms. Haley 鈥� boosting her argument that she is the one best positioned to challenge former President Donald Trump for the GOP nomination.聽
Last week, the political network founded by billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch , bringing money for TV ads and a ground operation of door-knockers and phone callers. Polls now have her in a clear 鈥� albeit distant 鈥� second place behind Mr. Trump in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and closing the gap with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis聽for second place in Iowa. A town hall last week on the South Carolina coast in Bluffton turned into a rally of 2,500, with hundreds聽 after the event reached capacity. And in a telltale sign of a candidate鈥檚 momentum, her opponents came out of the gate attacking her at the final Republican debate last night in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
Why We Wrote This
Some strategists say former President Donald Trump鈥檚 support is softer than it looks 鈥� with many GOP voters open to an alternative nominee who shares his policies. But it鈥檚 a lot of ground to make up.
鈥淚 love all the attention, fellas, thank you for that,鈥� said Ms. Haley to her three male opponents on stage.聽
The question is, however, will any of it matter in a campaign year that鈥檚 unlike any other? Despite facing multiple criminal indictments, former President Trump remains the overwhelming favorite among Republican voters, leading the field by 20 to 50 points. Ms. Haley鈥檚 strong debate performances, which have clearly contributed to her gains in support, have all come with the caveat that Mr. Trump has not participated.
Haley supporters here in South Carolina, many of them former Trump voters, recognize the long odds. Still, they note she was a long shot in her first, successful campaign for governor. And they point to polls showing she does better than Mr. Trump in head-to-head matchups against President Joe Biden. They are hoping that over the next few months momentum will beget momentum 鈥� and that Ms. Haley will pull off an upset for the ages.
鈥淭here are those that are for Trump because they saw the policies and they agree. But I believe there are more people who are realizing that Nikki鈥檚 policies would be similar 鈥� but she would do it in a polite way,鈥� says Ms. Carter, a retired elementary school teacher who chairs the Bamberg County Republican Party. 鈥淚 really believe she鈥檚 starting to translate that to folks.鈥�
Overhearing Ms. Carter鈥檚 comments as he leaves Rusty & Paula鈥檚 with his wife, Kendra, local hay farmer and lifelong Republican Glenn Gustafson says he鈥檚 been sending Ms. Haley $47 a month to help her become the 47th president. He鈥檚 already told his son that he鈥檒l have to drive him to Washington to watch Ms. Haley鈥檚 inauguration if she wins.聽
鈥淎nd she can win,鈥� says Mr. Gustafson.
鈥淚f Trump wasn鈥檛 running, she would,鈥� his wife adds.聽
Soft Trump supporters聽聽
The conundrum that Ms. Haley faces in the GOP primary race 鈥� how to attract both Trump-averse Republicans and 鈥淢ake America Great Again鈥� supporters 鈥� is personified by these three South Carolinians.聽
Ms. Carter, who voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 but then decided to vote for Mr. Biden, 鈥渢he lesser of two evils,鈥� in 2020 because 鈥渃haracter is important,鈥� isn鈥檛 sure what she鈥檒l do in 2024 if Mr. Trump is the GOP nominee. The Gustafsons, both two-time Trump voters, are more sympathetic to the former president. His term in office was 鈥渃haotic,鈥� they agree, but it was far better than the Biden administration. They鈥檇 vote for Mr. Trump next year if he鈥檚 the nominee, to get Mr. Biden out of office.
All three, however, see Ms. Haley as the best choice for the party.
鈥淚 think Nikki can do the same job as Trump, but without all the crap,鈥� says Mr. Gustafson.聽
Of course, they all recognize, as they pull up photos of themselves with Ms. Haley in this exact restaurant, that they might be a little biased. Bamberg, one of the least-populated, poorest counties in South Carolina, is Ms. Haley鈥檚 hometown. Her presidential campaign announcement video was centered around her childhood here. Rusty & Paula鈥檚, the only dining option in town besides a Hardee鈥檚 on the end of a vacant Main Street, features 鈥淗aley for President鈥� signs outside and bumper stickers next to the register. Ms. Haley came in here two weeks before her campaign announcement rally in Charleston, says Ms. Carter, who remembers Ms. Haley from middle school, to let her hometown know she would be running.聽
鈥淚f she continues to rise, the independent and female voters will get behind her more and more,鈥� says Ronny Maxwell, a banker in Bamberg who has voted Republican for the past four decades, including twice for Mr. Trump.聽
鈥淥ur country needs someone who can put 100 percent into presidential duties,鈥� he says, adding that he believes Mr. Trump will be too distracted with his numerous trials. 鈥淚鈥檓 grateful for the progress Trump made in his term, but I鈥檓 hopeful for the future. And I think Nikki is our answer.鈥�
Ed Goeas, a Republican strategist who worked on presidential campaigns for both former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, says the number of 鈥淎lways Trumpers,鈥� or voters who say they will vote for the former president no matter what, has decreased from a majority of Republicans in 2020 to around 40%. The plurality of Republicans today, he says 鈥� around 50% 鈥� are more like Mr. Maxwell and the Gustafsons: Voters who previously cast ballots for Mr. Trump and still like his policies, but would prefer a different Republican presidential nominee in 2024. Just 10% are 鈥淣ever Trumpers.鈥澛�
鈥淚 think everyone is misreading the lead that Trump has, because that lead is in a multi-candidate race,鈥� says Mr. Goeas. By campaigning in such a singular way, and skipping events like last night鈥檚 debate, Mr. Trump is doing little to expand his 鈥淎lways Trump鈥� voter pool, he says. And the more other candidates drop out, which Mr. Goeas believes could happen sooner than it did in 2016, 鈥渢he more it becomes a Nikki-Trump fight,鈥� with supporters of Mr. DeSantis or former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie moving into Ms. Haley鈥檚 camp.聽
鈥淗aley鈥檚 getting the lightning in the bottle at exactly the right time going into the primaries,鈥� he adds.
Will the field consolidate?
Some of Ms. Haley鈥檚 rise has come at Mr. DeSantis鈥� expense. The Florida governor was polling in a strong second place before he even launched his campaign but has seen his support steadily drop ever since. And while Mr. DeSantis has 鈥減ut all his eggs in Iowa鈥檚 basket,鈥� Ms. Haley is 鈥渢he only candidate that鈥檚 in a solid position in all three early states鈥� of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina,聽says Olivia Perez-Cubas, a spokesperson for the Haley campaign. (Polling has been minimal in Nevada, the fourth early voting state, with a caucus in February.)聽
The Haley strategy looks something like this: Perform as well as possible in Iowa, then pull off a surprise win in New Hampshire (which has a history of boosting underdogs), before heading to South Carolina, where she can benefit from a home-state advantage.聽In 2008, former Arizona Sen. John McCain used a New Hampshire win, after coming in fourth in Iowa, to slingshot his way to the nomination.聽
鈥淎long the way, the field continues to consolidate and Nikki gains the most as the field consolidates and gets smaller,鈥� says Ms. Perez-Cubas.聽
But this consolidation is far from assured. Other non-Trump candidates may stay in the race long enough 鈥� as they did in 2016 鈥� to ensure a Trump victory in a fractured field. And while the Haley campaign and some strategists believe she would benefit the most if some rivals were to drop out, it鈥檚 also possible some of those votes would just go to Mr. Trump.
At a debate watch party for Mr. DeSantis across the state in Greenville on Wednesday night, a room of two dozen supporters sharing nachos erupts in laughter when Vivek Ramaswamy holds up a handwritten sign in the middle of the debate that reads 鈥淣IKKI = CORRUPT.鈥� The fourth and final debate was arguably Mr. DeSantis鈥� best performance, and supporters told the Monitor they were encouraged despite the various setbacks he鈥檚 experienced.聽
鈥淗aley is more of a globalist,鈥� says Annette Burgess, wearing a DeSantis hat alongside her husband, Bill, when explaining why she prefers the Florida governor to Ms. Haley. 鈥淎nd DeSantis is pro-life like we are. He signed a six-week ban [on abortion], which was big for us in deciding who to support.鈥�
鈥淚 went to both the DeSantis and Haley rallies here, and I think they鈥檙e both capable leaders, but I have confidence in DeSantis because of how he guided Florida through COVID,鈥� says Jennifer Haring, a Republican voter who voted for Mr. Trump twice. While she鈥檇 prefer Mr. DeSantis to win, she says she鈥檇 be OK voting for Ms. Haley as well.
But when asked which one has a better chance of closing in on Mr. Trump鈥檚 double-digit lead, Ms. Haring laughs.
鈥淥h, I know that鈥檚 not going to happen,鈥� she says, acknowledging that Mr. Trump will likely be the party鈥檚 nominee. 鈥淏ut they鈥檒l both be on the world stage. Maybe they鈥檒l have cabinet positions.鈥�
