A plan for Gaza鈥檚 future is taking shape. Obstacles loom.
| DUBAI, United Arab Emirates; AMMAN, Jordan; and RAMALLAH, West Bank
A massive postwar reconstruction plan is taking shape for the besieged Gaza Strip, if only the combatants and local politics don鈥檛 stand in the way.
Backed by Gulf billions and spurred by public pressure,聽the plan is being advanced by聽Arab states, the聽United States, and the European Union.聽It aims聽to transform life for聽the聽Palestinians and move聽them聽closer to statehood, with new support from the Palestinian Authority.
Moves聽are accelerating after the聽PA聽agreed this week to a proposal by the U.S., the EU, Arab Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan for a 鈥渄ay-after鈥� scenario. The plan seeks to rebuild the coastal strip, unite and overhaul Palestinian governance, and create a Palestinian security force in Gaza to ensure Palestinian and Israeli security.聽
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onThe trauma of war is catalyzing an Arab, U.S., and European push for a 鈥渄ay-after鈥� plan for Gaza. It faces challenges. How they are met may be the difference between reconstruction and peace, and a security vacuum and chaos.
Ongoing talks in Gulf capitals, Amman, and Ramallah are closing in on tough questions,聽including聽who should make up the new Palestinian government, and how to rebuild a territory聽where practically all infrastructure is destroyed.
Yet outstanding challenges continue to stump Arab and Western diplomats聽from three sources: a far-right Israeli government that聽is rejecting a role for the PA in Gaza鈥檚 governance, a militant Hamas that is far from聽having been聽defeated or聽disarmed by the war that broke out Oct. 7, and internal Palestinian divisions.
Observers say how these challenges are tackled may be the difference between postwar reconstruction and peace, and a security vacuum and chaos.
A strip. A plan.
Key to the plan is what Arab diplomats describe as a 鈥渞apid鈥� reconstruction and humanitarian campaign to alleviate the suffering of Gaza Palestinians, create housing, and restore livelihoods.
Under the plan, Gulf states have set an initial budget of $3 billion annually for a 10-year period, with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar as the three largest donors, according to聽a Gulf official聽who requested anonymity.
The priority of the聽rapid part of the聽rebuild will be southern Gaza, where 1 million internally displaced Palestinians have been pushed by the Israeli military.聽The聽effort there will聽be聽to build housing, schools, hospitals,聽and water and energy infrastructure,聽according to those close to discussions.
A parallel, long-term rebuild will be the 鈥渞e-imagining鈥� of northern Gaza and Gaza City, where the bulk of the population once lived, over a 10-to-15-year period, according to a Gulf diplomat聽and聽confirmed by a European diplomat.
In the wake of聽a聽united Arab refusal to put 鈥渂oots on the ground鈥� in Gaza聽right after an Israeli withdrawal,聽a聽compromise聽has been struck by Arab states, the Biden administration, and聽the聽PA聽to police a post-Hamas Gaza with a grouping of former聽PA security officers in Gaza. Those officers were forced into retirement following Hamas鈥� seizure of the strip in 2007.
Gaza governance?
The flow of billions of dollars into Gaza hinges on聽who, precisely, will govern聽the strip.
During聽U.S. national security adviser聽Jake Sullivan鈥檚 visit to Ramallah Saturday, the聽PA聽agreed with the European-American-Arab plan to form a technocratic unity聽government under a 鈥渞evamped and revitalized鈥� PA to govern both Gaza and the West Bank.
Under the verbally agreed-upon plan,聽octogenarian PA President聽Mahmoud聽Abbas would serve as a ceremonial figurehead聽for a聽transitional period, with the聽unity聽government providing services,聽running聽day-to-day affairs, and overseeing reconstruction.
Yet talks are snagging over the details.聽Mr. Abbas鈥� inner circle wants聽the unity government stacked with loyalists and people from the West Bank. The U.S. and聽Arab powers, diplomats say,聽are doubling down, insisting the new government be staffed equally with Palestinians from Gaza and from the West Bank, all apolitical technocrats and civil society members.
鈥淐apable Palestinian technocrats ... don鈥檛 receive the attention they deserve,鈥� Mohammed Baharoon, director of the聽Dubai-based B鈥檋uth聽think tank, says of a technocratic聽government鈥檚 merits.
European, British, and Gulf diplomats鈥� preference, according to multiple sources, is for the聽revamped聽PA to include Palestinian diaspora lawyers, scientists, human rights activists, and business leaders from the West.聽They would be聽imbued with聽a belief in聽good governance, and free of the bitter divisions and petty rivalries that mark Palestinian politics today.
Meanwhile, the聽PA聽is pushing for an international peace conference setting a timeline for a Palestinian state as a condition for promoting the post-Hamas governance plan聽鈥撀燼 political horizon聽that聽would help it sell the initiative to other factions and the public.
鈥淲hat is missing [in the plan] is a political solution,鈥� says Bassam Salhi,聽a聽member of the Palestine Liberation Organization Executive Committee and Abbas ally.聽鈥淲e want a comprehensive vision with the overall end goal of a political resolution, the end of the occupation and recognition of a Palestinian state within 1967 borders.鈥�
But there are also outstanding concerns among Arab diplomats, Europeans, and some Palestinian factions聽over聽whether Mr. Abbas and his inner circle, who have restricted freedoms, cracked down on dissent, siphoned millions, disenfranchised most Palestinians,聽and lost public聽support, can truly reform and facilitate a new era in Palestinian governance.
Noting Mr. Abbas鈥� track record, the Fatah Democratic Reform Bloc,聽a PLO faction that聽retains extensive humanitarian and civil society networks in Gaza and West Bank refugee camps,聽is insisting聽on a firm date for legislative and presidential elections to select new leadership as part of the day-after arrangements.
鈥淣o more Abbas games,鈥� Dimitri聽Diliani,聽the Reform Bloc spokesperson, says of previous empty reform promises, rejecting 鈥渁ny proposal that imposes Israeli or American conditions on who governs the Palestinian people.鈥�
One Gulf official described聽ongoing contentious talks with rival Palestinian factions over a list of names for the new government as 鈥渟urprisingly difficult鈥� and 鈥渁 headache.鈥�
鈥淭he Palestinian Authority is deeply flawed, but they are the only realistic option we have as a moderate governing entity,鈥� says the official, who was not authorized to speak to the press. 鈥淲e have to hold them to account to make sure this works.鈥�
Israeli opposition
Yet聽the day-after plan鈥檚 most significant challenge may come from Israel.
As talks progress, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu聽has been聽increasingly vocal聽about聽his refusal of a聽PA聽role in Gaza, saying recently, 鈥淚 will not allow Israel to repeat the mistake of Oslo,鈥� the peace accords聽that聽established the authority.
On Sunday Mr. Netanyahu reiterated that he would thwart efforts to revive the two-state solution, saying he is聽鈥減roud of the fact that I prevented the emergence of a Palestinian state.鈥�
Arab states reportedly聽are聽attempting to use Gulf funding for reconstruction聽as leverage聽to push Israel to accept a聽PA聽role in a postwar Gaza, sending a message through their envoys to Israel and Washington: No聽Palestinian Authority, no funds for Gaza.
And there are indications Israel may be softening its stance. Tzachi Hanegbi, head of Israel鈥檚 National Security Council, voiced in an op-ed Thursday on a Saudi-owned news site a willingness to accept a Palestinian role in Gaza, but that it 鈥渨ill require a fundamental reform of the Palestinian Authority.鈥�
Hamas and public opinion
Another major hurdle is Hamas and Palestinians who have been excluded from the process.
As diplomats push to revive the PA, a recent poll conducted by the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research reveals a Palestinian public turning its back on the authority and supporting Hamas.
When asked about their preference for聽postwar rule in Gaza, fewer than 1% of Palestinian聽respondents聽said they preferred a unity government returning to Gaza under the supervision of Mr. Abbas, 16% preferred a national unity government without Mr. Abbas, and 7% preferred the PA to return to Gaza as is.
The majority, 60%, preferred Hamas to govern Gaza, but support was split聽along聽regional lines: Seventy percent of West Bank residents preferred Hamas rule in Gaza, compared聽with聽38% of Gaza residents,聽who have lived under Hamas and聽preferred the PA鈥檚 return instead.
Hamas鈥� popularity has tripled among beleaguered West Bank Palestinians since Oct. 7 from 12% three months ago to 44% currently.聽Meanwhile, nearly聽60% of Palestinians called for the PA to be dissolved, according to the poll. It鈥檚 the first time a majority of Palestinians have called for its disbanding.
鈥淩ight now, anything that Abbas puts his hand on is going to be immediately seen as suspect by Palestinians,鈥澛爏ays聽Khalil Shikaki, analyst, pollster, and director of the Ramallah-based research center. 鈥淭o have legitimacy, any future arrangements for Gaza must have the widest support of Palestinians rather than something that the president or his inner circle would be authorizing.鈥�
Palestinian analysts agree that Hamas鈥� approval for any future technocratic government聽will be crucial聽to avoid the militant movement acting as a spoiler. The PA is exploring unofficial talks with Hamas in Turkey, offering seats in the PLO if it gives up armed resistance.
Yet Gulf states, like the U.S., rule out any role for Hamas in a future Gaza as a 鈥渘onstarter鈥� hurting efforts to push Israel to accept Palestinian governance in the strip.
