One Ireland? In the south, the tide turns toward reunification.
| St Johnston, Ireland
At a roadside diner in this small village in the far northwest of the Republic of Ireland, Kieran Harrigan contemplates a border that once loomed large but now seems barely to exist.
鈥淭he only way you know you鈥檝e crossed the border is the color of the road markings,鈥� says Mr. Harrigan, a retired construction manager, who has watched the frontier fade from identity flashpoint to negligible line.
It has been more than a century since the British government broke off six of Ireland鈥檚 32 counties into Northern Ireland within the United Kingdom, with the remaining counties eventually becoming the independent Irish Republic. Partition sparked sectarian strife in Northern Ireland, which was resolved by the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, a multinational peace treaty that also set terms for how Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic might once again be joined.
Why We Wrote This
With the election of President Catherine Connolly, the cause of a unified Ireland has more political momentum in the Irish Republic than its had in years. But just how realistic is reunification for the republic, both politically and practically?
From where Mr. Harrigan sits, the drift toward Irish unity feels inevitable.
鈥淚t鈥檚 just been chipping away over the decades,鈥� he says. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a mood change in Ireland to a united Ireland.鈥�
The idea of reunification in the republic gained symbolic momentum last month with the election of Catherine Connolly, a vocal proponent of unity, as the nation鈥檚 president. All the Republic鈥檚 main left-leaning parties support preparations for reunification. Only the two historically dominant centrist parties remain more cautious about it.
New pressures, including the rise of the left, the fallout from Brexit, and shifting demographics have made unity feel less abstract and more attainable on both sides of the divide, according to some analysts. The time to act appears ripe.
鈥淧eople expect it now in a way they didn鈥檛 10 or 15 years ago,鈥� says Brendan O鈥橪eary, a political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, and who leads ARINS (Analyzing and Researching Ireland North and South) surveys on Irish public opinion. Recent polling suggests about two-thirds of voters in the republic say they would vote to support unification (about 65%), with some 17% preferring that Northern Ireland stay in the United Kingdom.
Changing winds in the republic
The election of Ms. Connolly could prove a significant catalyst for reunification, as it gives the pro-unity camp a visible figurehead.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a very, very symbolic role,鈥� says Donnacha 脫 Beach谩in, a political scientist specializing in Irish politics. The president cannot make policy or redraw borders, for instance. But, he says, 鈥渟ymbols can be important.鈥�
For decades, Irish reunification has been more aspiration than policy. 鈥淚rish unification is not part of day-to-day politics,鈥� says Dr. 脫 Beach谩in. Politicians, he notes, tend to focus on short-term electoral issues such as housing and health care.
President Connolly鈥檚 insistence on planning for unification could nudge Dublin鈥檚 political class 鈥� especially the centrist parties, Fianna F谩il and Fine Gael 鈥� to start thinking more concretely about how a shared Ireland might actually work.
The party that is perhaps most pivotal in paving the way toward reunification is left-wing Sinn F茅in, the former political arm of the Irish Republican Army. It is now the largest party in Northern Ireland鈥檚 regional legislature and the second-largest in the republic鈥檚 main legislative body, the D谩il. Sinn F茅in is uniquely positioned to press for the referendums needed to realize reunification on both sides of the border. And its growing legitimacy, once unthinkable given its historical ties to the IRA, has given the push for unity new momentum.
鈥淵ou have a dynamic on both sides of the border that鈥檚 unprecedented,鈥� says Dr. 脫 Beach谩in. 鈥淪inn F茅in鈥檚 success north and south shows that if the left unites, it can win, and that changes the political landscape.鈥� If Sinn F茅in were to win the next general election or become the leading party in government in the South, that would bring reunification to the top of the political agenda, with a poll likely materializing within 10 years, he adds.
The earliest that a referendum in the north might be successful is 2030, in the assessment of Dr. O鈥橪eary.
An economy already primed?
If the political will is found for reunification, the economic changes required to realize it might not prove as difficult as they might have been, thanks to Brexit.
Brexit has already reshaped the island鈥檚 economic geography more than any other event since Ireland鈥檚 partition. Taking Britain out of the European Union 鈥� a move which nearly 56% of Northern Ireland鈥檚 voters opposed 鈥� ultimately resulted in a new kind of border dynamic between the republic, Northern Ireland, and the rest of the U.K.
Under the Northern Ireland Protocol, the post-Brexit trade deal that addressed the new state of affairs, the north remains within the EU鈥檚 single market for goods and agriculture, even though Britain does not. Customs and regulatory checks now take place between Northern Ireland and Britain rather than across the Irish border, effectively aligning the North鈥檚 economy with that of the republic.
And if Northern Ireland were to vote for reunification, the newly united state would automatically become part of the European Union. 鈥淭here would be no messy negotiations,鈥� notes Dr. 脫 Beach谩in. 鈥淚f you are interested in rejoining the European Union, reunification is a fast track way of doing that.
鈥淓conomically, Northern Ireland is more directly linked to the republic than at any other juncture before,鈥� he adds. 鈥淓verybody knows that the Republic of Ireland ... is an economic success story and in contrast the same cannot be said of Great Britain.鈥�
That鈥檚 a major boon for the north, and should make bringing it into the republic easier than the reunification of Germany in the 1990s. Ireland鈥檚 recent budget surpluses and strong economic performance, Dr. O鈥橪eary argues, mean the cost of absorbing Northern Ireland would likely amount to only a few percentage points of gross domestic product.
Dr. 脫 Beach谩in sees the economic challenge as real but manageable. Northern Ireland is the poorest part of the United Kingdom and would become the poorest part of a united Ireland. Estimates put the annual cost of integration at anywhere between 鈧�2 billion and 鈧�20 billion ($2.3 billion and $23 billion).
鈥淭he truth is somewhere in between,鈥� says Dr. 脫 Beach谩in. He notes that the Irish government鈥檚 annual budget surplus is currently around 鈧�9 billion, suggesting that integration costs could be handled.
Community cohesion
The real issue, Dr. 脫 Beach谩in warns, is not whether the republic can afford unity, but whether it avoids a scenario like Brexit, where all the hard decisions are made after the referendum. The risk is the Irish 鈥渃ould find themselves sleepwalking into a united Ireland without sufficient preparations.鈥�
Audrey Robinson, from County Mayo, says most people now see reunification as part of Ireland鈥檚 future but stresses that this 鈥渉as to be something that comes from the people of the country, rather than any one politician.鈥� She founds her optimism on younger generations.
鈥淢y nieces and nephews had no experience with the Troubles,鈥� says Ms. Robinson, referring to the violence that scarred Northern Ireland, and sometimes spilled into the south, between 1968 and 1998. 鈥淭hey have a very different attitude ... and could propel something like this forward.鈥�
Older generations tend to see reuniting north and south as righting a historical wrong. Younger people point to Ireland鈥檚 multicultural and welcoming nature, though concerns over immigration and living costs are rising, as they are elsewhere in Europe.
In Ballybofey, builder Caolan Marley worries that reunification could come with a price, but remains firmly in favor of it. 鈥淚f we accept Northern Ireland, the tax levels are going to be so high, it鈥檚 going to change things,鈥� he says.
But 鈥渢he rest of the island of Ireland wants it to happen,鈥� he insists. 鈥淚f it鈥檚 good, bad, or ugly, we鈥檒l fight for it. Ten years down the line, I鈥檓 pretty sure it鈥檒l work out.鈥�
