Democrats are hungry for a comeback. Will Spanberger lead the way in Virginia?
| Charlottesville, Va.
At a Tuesday rally for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger, speaker after speaker hammered home one point: This election is about more than Virginia.
Virginia will 鈥渓ead the way鈥� into the 2026 midterms, trumpeted Bill Nye the Science Guy. It鈥檚 鈥減retty much the center of the political universe,鈥� added former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
鈥淲e know the stakes of this election,鈥� Ms. Spanberger, a former CIA case officer who served three terms in the U.S. House, told the Charlottesville crowd of 1,300. 鈥淲e can prove to the rest of the country 鈥� when we have the opportunity to make a change at home in our state, we will take it.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
Virginia is one of two states holding a competitive race for governor this fall 鈥� a closely watched test of whether Democrats can find their footing after last year鈥檚 election losses.
Gubernatorial races in both Virginia and New Jersey 鈥� which take place the year after presidential elections 鈥� often get outsize attention, as pundits and party leaders sift through the tea leaves for takeaways about the mood of the country heading into the following year鈥檚 midterm elections. Those takes don鈥檛 always prove terribly predictive: Four years ago, current Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin was widely heralded as a post-Trump archetype for the GOP. Today, Governor Youngkin and his sweater vests are on their way out, while President Donald Trump鈥檚 dominance of the party appears complete.
So, at a time when Democrats in Washington are searching for a path out of the political wilderness, Ms. Spanberger鈥檚 campaign could represent a way forward. But with caveats.
The Republican in the race, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, has eschewed traditional campaigning and fundraising, and has consistently trailed in the polls, often by double digits. Notably, President Trump has not campaigned on her behalf; the state GOP chair at one point had to assure a conservative radio host that her campaign was 鈥�.鈥� Ms. Spanberger has raised as Ms. Earle-Sears and appears in a strong position to win on Nov. 4. But that victory could get chalked up to a weak GOP opponent rather than signaling a broader anti-Trump turn in the electorate that could put congressional Republicans on notice.
At the same time, Democrats might find themselves on Nov. 5 with very different models of winning candidates that do little to resolve the party鈥檚 own internal divide. The gubernatorial nominees in Virginia and New Jersey, where Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill is locked in a closer race against a repeat GOP candidate, are both moderate women with national security backgrounds and cautious campaign styles. Meanwhile, in New York, democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani could become the city鈥檚 first Muslim mayor, after a campaign built on viral social media clips and .
鈥淧eople are looking [at Virginia] and are like 鈥業s this going to predict a trend for next year? Is this going to be a model for next year鈥檚 races?鈥欌�� says Kristy Muddiman, a civics teacher in Roanoke who drove to Charlottesville for the Spanberger event. 鈥淭here鈥檚 this great division in the party right now: Do we go more moderate or do we go more progressive?鈥�
Running on affordability
To be sure, running for mayor in a Democratic enclave such as New York City is very different from running statewide in Virginia, a swing state that has leaned more Democratic in recent years but which voted Republican for four decades of presidential contests before President Barack Obama flipped it blue in 2008.
And some in the party have been struck by the ways in which Ms. Spanberger and Mr. Mamdani鈥檚 campaigns are actually similar.
鈥淭he party鈥檚 most-centrist candidate and the most-left candidate actually agree on what the biggest issue is,鈥� says Ben Tribbett, a Virginia-based Democratic strategist. 鈥淭hey are both running on an affordability message.鈥�
How they talk about it, however, is different. In an eight-page PDF document, Ms. Spanberger pledges to address the cost of living by cutting red tape that hinders housing construction and bringing down energy bills. Mr. Mamdani proposes universal child care (which ) and city-run grocery stores in TikTok videos.
Still, some voters say they appreciate that both candidates are focused on the problem 鈥� and are looking for solutions.
鈥淧revious elections have been Democrats just rebuking Republicans,鈥� says Zack Landsman, a Ph.D. student at the University of Virginia, waiting in line for Ms. Spanberger鈥檚 event. 鈥淏ut between [Spanberger] and Mamdani, and the clear actions they are talking about, it makes me very excited about them.鈥�
Though Ms. Spanberger has run television ads tying Ms. Earle-Sears to the president鈥檚 鈥渂ad budget,鈥� and calling her a 鈥淢AGA Republican,鈥� Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato鈥檚 Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, has been struck by how little Ms. Spanberger mentions Mr. Trump in her press releases. 鈥淒uring the 2021 campaign, every other word out of [Democratic nominee Terry] McAuliffe鈥檚 mouth was 鈥榊oungkin is Trump鈥� and I think he overplayed it,鈥� says Mr. Coleman. 鈥淚n this race, DOGE has been a good proxy to not mentioning Trump by name.鈥�
Mr. Trump鈥檚 mass downsizing of the federal workforce through his Department of Government Efficiency has been a defining issue in this race 鈥� Virginia is home to , behind only California and Washington, D.C. And it鈥檚 been compounded by the government shutdown, now into its fourth week with hundreds of thousands government employees furloughed. The impact has been particularly severe in the northern Virginia suburbs where Democrats need big margins to win the state.
There were 鈥渞ed flags鈥� when聽Mr. McAuliffe campaigned in northern Virginia in 2021, says Dominic Thompson, executive director of Fairfax Democrats. 鈥淲e could tell that turnout was going to be rockier.鈥� Now, 鈥渨e see the firings of all our neighbors in NoVa. The national guard in D.C. This election is so nationalized because we were seeing the impacts. Normally it takes time to see those national impacts trickle down to people.鈥�
Asked by the Monitor at a campaign stop in Williamsburg last week whether she was concerned that the federal layoffs and furloughs could affect the race, Ms. Earle-Sears responded that Ms. Spanberger should tell Virginia鈥檚 two Democratic senators to end the shutdown. 鈥淎bigail Spanberger has been playing political football with federal workers all summer long, playing that she loves federal workers more than anyone else on this Earth,鈥� says Ms. Earle-Sears. 鈥淟ove looks like keeping federal workers in their jobs.鈥�
Campaign trail hurdles
That Williamsburg event 鈥� a brief appearance in a restaurant parking lot in front of a dozen or so supporters 鈥� was largely indicative of the campaign Ms. Earle-Sears has run, which has been characterized by and . The event was focused on Virginia schools鈥� bathroom and locker-room policies for transgender students, an issue that the lieutenant governor has made a cornerstone of her campaign.
Ms. Earle-Sears has campaigned on the promise to 鈥渒eep a good thing going鈥� and continue many of Mr. Youngkin鈥檚 policies. She frequently speaks about her moral opposition to abortion 鈥� an important issue in. Although she has supported 15- and 6-week bans in the past, Ms. Earle-Sears said in the one gubernatorial debate earlier this month that the policy is 鈥渘ot going to be my view, it鈥檚 going to be the view of the majority.鈥�
Even if Ms. Earle-Sears had run , she would likely have faced an uphill battle, given the national political currents and specific dynamics of this race. In every gubernatorial race here save one since the late 1970s, Virginians have favored the party outside the White House.
鈥淲e were happy with 2024,鈥� says Matthew Hurtt, chairman of Arlington GOP, who acknowledges that the presidential victory makes it 鈥渉ard鈥� for Republicans this year. 鈥淯nless you are agitated in politics, you鈥檙e not prompted to get out and do something.鈥�
Ms. Spanberger鈥檚 campaign hasn鈥檛 been entirely smooth sailing. For all the criticism on the right of how Ms. Earle-Sears has run her campaign, facing off against 鈥渁 Black female Marine who has [already] been elected statewide鈥� isn鈥檛 nothing, says Mr. Tribbett. Following the one gubernatorial debate, Ms. Spanberger was criticized for long, sometimes evasive answers.
In recent weeks, violent text messages from Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones, in which he fantasized about killing a Republican House speaker, have dominated the race. Ms. Spanberger denounced the messages but did not call for Mr. Jones to drop out. Still, she has run a campaign without 鈥渁ny mistakes of substance,鈥� says Mr. Tribbett. He adds that her congressional voting record has made it difficult for Republicans to paint her as a Mamdani-style progressive running in a state that elected a Republican governor four years ago.
A mom of three from the Richmond suburbs, Ms. Spanberger is used to appealing to Republican voters: She flipped a GOP congressional district in 2018, the same year Ms. Sherrill was elected. (It was also the same year that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a democratic socialist like Mr. Mamdani, burst onto the scene by ousting a veteran Democratic congressman in New York.)
Ms. Spanberger, who was ranked as one of the during her time in the House, criticized some of her colleagues鈥� calls to 鈥渄efund the police.鈥� In her run for governor, she has earned the endorsement of the Virginia Police Benevolent Association, which split its endorsement this year by backing Ms. Spanberger and the Republican candidates down ticket.
Tanya and David Samples, who live outside Charlottesville, say Ms. Spanberger is the right person to capture the centrist votes needed to win a Virginia governor鈥檚 race. But like so many other Democrats in the state, they also hope she can jump-start a Democratic comeback nationwide.
鈥淭his is going to be a bellwether state with New Jersey,鈥� says Ms. Samples, who came to hear Ms. Spanberger and Mr. Buttigieg at the Charlottesville rally. 鈥淚 am praying that these two Democrats win the governors鈥� races, so that maybe the Republicans in the House will wake up.鈥�
