As US targets drug boats, Venezuelans wonder whether Maduro might be next
| Bogot谩, Colombia
Recent weeks have given Venezuelans at home and abroad new reasons to hope authoritarianism in their country might soon be on its way out.
The announcement this month that Mar铆a Corina Machado had won the Nobel Peace Prize has fortified those who, like her, have fought to restore democracy in Venezuela. Meanwhile, the United States鈥� new military campaign against drug trafficking has raised the prospect of toppling President Nicol谩s Maduro. Some 86% of Venezuelans support the U.S. actions, according to .
But those closest to the work of liberating Venezuela from the Maduro regime paint a more complicated picture. All are grateful for the new attention, and some see military action as a crucial lever. Others worry about the consequences of foreign involvement. Looming behind everything are what appear to be intensifying efforts to target Venezuelan opposition figures who have sought refuge abroad.
Why We Wrote This
Many Venezuelans support U.S. military strikes against drug trafficking, hoping they could topple President Nicol谩s Maduro. But the challenges facing those seeking to reestablish democracy in Venezuela go much deeper.
There is cautious optimism, but also a wary sense that the need for vigilance is only growing.
This is 鈥渢he beginning of a new stage of transnational repression against critics of the government,鈥� says Rafael Uzc谩tegui, a Venezuelan human rights defender who has fled to Mexico City.
U.S. pressure on Maduro
U.S. President Donald Trump has heaped pressure on the Venezuelan government, sending about 10,000 troops and eight major warships to the Caribbean. These forces have destroyed at least seven vessels suspected of drug trafficking in the region, killing at least 32 since Sept. 2. Last week, Mr. Trump confirmed that he has authorized Central Intelligence Agency operations within Venezuela. (On Wednesday, it was reported that the administration had carried out an additional strike against a suspected drug boat, this time off the Pacific coast of Colombia. At least two people were believed killed.)
These actions could 鈥渃hange the current equilibrium鈥� and lead to the fall of Mr. Maduro鈥檚 authoritarian government, says Jose Morales-Arilla, a professor at Tecnol贸gico de Monterrey in Mexico.
Many Venezuelans see a degree of hope in Mr. Trump because, like Venezuela鈥檚 authoritarian leadership, 鈥渉e also doesn鈥檛 blink,鈥� adds Dr. Morales-Arilla. The fact that Mr. Trump was willing to bomb Iran in June, he says, sends a strong signal about how far he might be willing to go.
Some Venezuelans think that commitment to force is key. 鈥淰enezuelans have tried every imaginable political strategy 鈥� from negotiation, to street protests, to massive participation in elections 鈥� despite having everything stacked against them,鈥� says Mr. Uzc谩tegui. He adds that many Venezuelans now see the use of force as the only option.
But military threats raise questions for others, especially given the U.S. history of interference in Latin America. 鈥淲e鈥檙e worried this is in the hands of foreign governments,鈥� says Ligia Bol铆var, general coordinator at Alerta Venezuela, a human rights organization.
For their part, opposition members both within Venezuela and abroad try to continue carrying out their work.
Rising threats to the opposition
Sitting in a Venezuelan restaurant in Bogot谩, Colombia, a member of the Venezuelan opposition鈥檚 campaign team says it is important 鈥渢o manage expectation and hope in a responsible manner.鈥� He is convinced Venezuela will eventually be free and democratic, but he remains unsure when that day will come. He had to flee after last year鈥檚 widely disputed presidential elections, and now he sees new threats.
On Oct. 13, three men fired more than a dozen shots at two Venezuelan opposition supporters in Bogot谩. It sent shock waves through the community of nearly 3 million Venezuelans who have sought refuge in Colombia.
To stay safe, the opposition campaigner regularly changes his routines and rarely tells anyone where he lives. He also asked that his name not be shared for this story. 鈥淚t brings back all the memories ... the persecution, the threats, the security concerns that we had in Venezuela, they are brought back to life when you thought you had left them behind,鈥� he says.
Venezuelans in Colombia 鈥渇eel a lot more vulnerable than before,鈥� and some are considering leaving the country, adds Ms. Bol铆var.
Such threats have been building. Last year, the body of a former army lieutenant who defected from Mr. Maduro鈥檚 government was discovered in Chile buried in a suitcase under a slab of cement. Two days after this month鈥檚 attack in Bogot谩, leaders of a nonprofit helping Venezuelan migrants in Colombia reported threats and intimidation. Gaby Andr茅ina Arellano, president of the nonprofit, says the events 鈥渉ave triggered a full state of alert.鈥�
Despite difficulties, opposition supporters say they believe things improve when the world pays attention. Recent threats and attacks against Venezuelans in Bogot谩 鈥渉ave generated fear and anxiety,鈥� but 鈥渢he foundation has not closed its doors,鈥� says Ms. Arellano.
Mr. Uzc谩tegui warns that the day Venezuela stops being international news and human rights organizations look away, 鈥渢he Venezuelan authorities will feel even more free to commit abuses of power.鈥�
鈥淭he goal has been the same in the last 25 years,鈥� the opposition campaigner insists, 鈥渢o achieve a legitimate, peaceful, and democratic transition in Venezuela.鈥�
