海角大神

President Donald Trump鈥檚 deployment of warships and thousands of Marines and sailors off the coast of Venezuela has put a spotlight back on the United States' relations with its own hemisphere 鈥� and revived for some in the region anxious memories of a militaristic Uncle Sam.

Like Mr. Trump鈥檚 earlier threats to take back the Panama Canal, the dispatching last week of forces near what the administration considers a terrorist narco-state has raised a raft of still-unanswered questions about a mercurial president鈥檚 intentions.

Is the show of force aimed at cowing Venezuela鈥檚 embattled President Nicol谩s Maduro into further cooperation with the U.S. on immigration matters and tackling the region鈥檚 drug cartels and Venezuela鈥檚 trafficking gangs?

Or is the buildup a prelude to a military operation into Venezuela 鈥� styled after the 1989 U.S. invasion of Panama? That option remains far-fetched in the eyes of most observers, but it has gained some credence with word that the White House has directed the Pentagon to draw up contingency plans for an intervention 鈥� ostensibly aimed at drug cartels.

In response to the deployment, Mr. Maduro announced on Wednesday that he had sent warships and drones to protect Venezuela鈥檚 territorial waters from the forces of the 鈥済ringo empire鈥� 鈥� a response that has raised concerns about an accidental confrontation.

鈥淲ay to look tough鈥�

If nothing else, the deployment underscores President Trump鈥檚 attraction to the gunboat diplomacy of the early 20th century, when the U.S. under President Theodore Roosevelt used naval forces to project power and secure an expanding power鈥檚 interests in the Caribbean and the Pacific.

鈥淔or Trump, this is a way to look tough and to be a forceful presence in the hemisphere even when his focus and interests really are elsewhere,鈥� says Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

鈥淗e thinks it looks cool. He wants to make a show of being tough on the cartels, but I think it doesn鈥檛 go beyond where we are now,鈥� he says, adding, 鈥渁lthough with Trump you never know and I could be proved wrong tomorrow.鈥�

Bernat Armangue/AP/File

The USS Gravely, a guided-missile destroyer, is part of the U.S. naval force deployed off the coast of Venezuela.

Venezuela has been in U.S. crosshairs for most of the last two decades, in the wake of former President Hugo Ch谩vez鈥檚 鈥淏olivarian Revolution鈥� of the late 1990s that turned what was once South America鈥檚 wealthiest country into a socialist authoritarian state with soaring poverty.

Initially, Washington emphasized Venezuela鈥檚 democratic slide and shrinking space for political freedoms in its regional diplomacy. But under the first Trump administration, the focus shifted to the alleged involvement of Mr. Ch谩vez鈥檚 successor 鈥� Mr. Maduro 鈥� in drug trafficking.

Mr. Maduro was named in a 2020 U.S. Justice Department indictment alleging he led a conspiracy with other Venezuelan officials and drug cartels to traffic drugs into the U.S.

This month, the White House ramped up its anti-Maduro rhetoric while sidestepping any direct explanation of the Caribbean buildup.

鈥淭he Maduro regime is not the legitimate government of Venezuela, it is a narco-terror cartel,鈥� said press secretary Karoline Leavitt in comments to the media on Aug. 19. Indeed, much of the international community, including the U.S., rejected as rigged last year鈥檚 presidential election in which Mr. Maduro claimed victory.

Mr. Trump, she added, is 鈥減repared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding into our country and to bring those responsible to justice.鈥�

China now a regional player

Latin America retains a bitter memory of recurring bouts of 鈥測anqui鈥� intervention in the region. But one factor that is different from the original recourse to gunboat diplomacy more than a century ago is China鈥檚 presence as a significant economic (and increasingly, political) player across the region.

Beijing took the notable step of cautioning the U.S. on Aug. 21 against 鈥渁ny move that violates 鈥� a country鈥檚 sovereignty and security,鈥� and urged the United States to 鈥渄o more things conducive to peace and security in Latin America and the Caribbean region.鈥�

鈥淭his administration is very worried about China,鈥� says Rebecca Bill Chavez, president and CEO of Inter-American Dialogue in Washington. 鈥淏ut at the same time, it鈥檚 easy to see how not just this military flex but the talk of other unilateral military actions could revive the old anxieties about the U.S. and give China an even greater opening.鈥�

Dr. Chavez says she finds particularly worrisome President Trump鈥檚 statements over recent months about potentially using the military to go after drug cartels in Mexico.

鈥淚f the U.S. were to undertake a unilateral strike into Mexico to go after cartels that are now officially labeled as foreign terrorist organizations, that would really make a difference,鈥� she says, 鈥渇or our relations with Mexico, which are so important for us in so many ways, for relations with the broader region, and for China鈥檚 role in Mexico, which the U.S. has been so worried about.鈥�

Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters

Venezuelans enlist in the Bolivarian Militia following President Nicol谩s Maduro's call for a nationwide recruitment drive, amid rising tensions with the United States over the deployment of U.S. warships in the Caribbean, in Caracas, Venezuela, Aug. 23, 2025.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued in comments this month that designating the drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations opens the door to using more components of American power, including the military, to counter them.

Experts such as Dr. Chavez note that Latin America is so polarized politically that there has been no unified regional response to the Caribbean buildup. One reason, Dr. Freeman of the Council on Foreign Relations says, is that anti-U.S. sentiment is at its weakest in decades.

Competing White House factions

But at the same time, both say that an actual military intervention 鈥� in Venezuela, or Mexico, or elsewhere 鈥� would almost certainly be met with a united regional condemnation.

In any case, most see an intervention into Venezuela as far from likely.

Dr. Freeman says he sees in the naval deployment a 鈥渂alancing act鈥� between two competing White House factions that have differing visions and priorities for what the show of force in the Caribbean should accomplish.

One group 鈥� led by President Trump鈥檚 鈥渆nvoy for special missions,鈥� Richard Grenell 鈥� is what Dr. Freeman describes as the 鈥淎merica First鈥� contingent, which is focused on pressuring Mr. Maduro into additional deals to take back more Venezuelans deported from the U.S.

Also key for that group is action reducing the flow of illicit drugs (and other trafficking operations) into the United States.

The other group, Dr. Freeman says, is anchored by Secretary Rubio and others who 鈥渟till generally care about a return of democracy to Venezuela.鈥�

Still, he says, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think either group sees a military intervention as key to their goals, so I really think this [deployment] is and will remain a show.鈥�