Key question as Venezuela prepares for inauguration: Who is the next president?
| BOGOT脕, Colombia
Editor's note: Since publication, opposition allies say prominent leader Mar铆a Corina Machado was arrested by government officials in Caracas before her release late Thursday afternoon, Jan. 9.
In black and white and in color; printed on sheafs of paper and staring down from television screens in public spaces 鈥� the face of Edmundo Gonz谩lez, the opposition candidate in Venezuela鈥檚 hotly contested presidential election last summer is plastered across Venezuela this month. He has become one of Venezuela鈥檚 鈥渕ost wanted鈥� ahead of tomorrow鈥檚 presidential inauguration, carrying a $100,000 bounty on his head.
The government is preparing to swear in President Nicol谩s Maduro for his third term in office Friday. His self-proclaimed victory following the July 28, 2024, election has been condemned as fraudulent by independent observers and dozens of countries worldwide, including the United States.
Why We Wrote This
According to independent observers, Venezuelans elected Edmundo Gonz谩lez president last summer, despite incumbent Nicol谩s Maduro鈥檚 claims of victory. Questions are swirling over who will take the oath of office Jan. 10.
Ahead of the inauguration ceremony, the military has shut down streets and deployed soldiers and armored vehicles across downtown Caracas. Military presence is set to be larger than in any other Venezuelan presidential inauguration ceremony over the past two decades to 鈥済uarantee peace,鈥� according to the government.
But the armed services are also on the hunt for Mr. Gonz谩lez, who the opposition coalition says is coming back to Venezuela after months of exile in Spain to claim the post he allegedly won with 67% of the votes, according to tally sheets published by the opposition.
In recent weeks, both Venezuela鈥檚 government and opposition have upped their efforts to lay claim to the presidency. The government has ramped up citizen repression through a new wave of arbitrary arrests. The opposition has called for mass protests in and outside the country, and dispatched Mr. Gonz谩lez on a diplomatic tour throughout the Americas. Who will lead Venezuela over the next six years remains shrouded in uncertainty, but the answer could shape issues ranging from international diplomatic cooperation to the economy to migration.
鈥淥nly tool they have left鈥�
Days before the inauguration, hooded men dressed in black kidnapped Mr. Gonz谩lez鈥檚 son-in-law in front of his children. Meanwhile local news reported the government set up military check points and deployed drones near the home of the 84-year-old mother of Mar铆a Corina Machado, the wildly popular opposition leader who appointed Mr. Gonz谩lez as her replacement after being barred from running for president herself.
Diosdado Cabello, minister of interior and a staunch Maduro ally, has threatened to arrest Mr. Gonz谩lez 鈥� or even shoot down his plane 鈥� should he return to Venezuela.
Mr. Cabello has assured citizens that at tomorrow鈥檚 inauguration 鈥渋t will be peace, tranquility.鈥�
Since the July elections, Venezuela has seen a surge in arbitrary arrests and political repression, says Gonzalo Himiob Santom茅, vice president of Foro Penal, a Venezuelan human rights organization. His nongovernmental organization has tallied about 1,800 political prisoners currently being held, many charged with terrorism or incitement of hatred. The number of politically motivated incarcerations jumped by roughly 500% since before the election, he says.
In the days leading up to the inauguration, international pressure on the government has mounted. On Tuesday, the Inter-American Commission of Human Rights released a report calling attention to Mr. Maduro鈥檚 use of state terrorism and coordinated repression to maintain power. Yesterday, the documentary 鈥淔rom Macedonia with Love鈥� was released, documenting both the popular uprising and government repression following the July vote. The documentary鈥檚 website was blocked inside Venezuela soon after its release.
The government鈥檚 use of the military and fear tactics 鈥� including publishing a list of opposition targets this week 鈥� is a 鈥減aradox,鈥� says Mr. Himiob. 鈥淚nstead of showing strength, it reveals鈥� the government鈥檚 weakness.
鈥淩epression is the only tool they have left,鈥� says Samuel D铆az Pulgar, a Caracas-based member of the opposition鈥檚 campaign team, whose name was included on the list of government targets.
The opposition has upped its pressure on Maduro鈥檚 government, too. As a former diplomat, Mr. Gonz谩lez is tapping into his professional roots by orchestrating an international tour for support. He started in Buenos Aires, holding hands with Argentine president Javier Milei on the balcony of the Casa Rosada while waving to thousands of exiled Venezuelans chanting: 鈥淲e are not afraid.鈥�
He then met with President Joe Biden at the White House and other regional leaders, as well as with a handful of former Latin American presidents who say they will accompany him in his attempt to claim the presidency.
At home, the opposition is planning to confront Mr. Maduro before he can take the presidential oath. Ms. Machado called for mass protests for Jan. 9 to 鈥渞eclaim鈥� the opposition鈥檚 victory. Demonstrations are expected to take place across the globe, from Cairo to Brisbane and Tokyo to New Orleans.
D茅j脿 vu or something new?
The governing party has been in office since 1999 when Hugo Ch谩vez, Mr. Maduro鈥檚 predecessor, took office as the democratically elected president. But in recent years, Mr. Maduro鈥檚 government has become increasingly authoritarian, says Paola Bautista de Alem谩n, a Venezuelan political scientist.
Venezuela鈥檚 electronic voting system is one of the most transparent and democratic in the world, says Dorothy Kronick, a professor at the University of California at Berkeley and co-author of the paper 鈥淗ow Maduro Stole Venezuela鈥檚 Vote,鈥� published this month in the Journal of Democracy. 鈥淲hat is so amazing about this system is that you don鈥檛 have to trust anyone, people themselves can check and validate results,鈥� Dr. Kronick says.
The electronic voting system was initially set up by Mr. Ch谩vez to prove that he was not cheating when he was winning elections by landslides in the 2000s. Now it shows undisputedly that Mr. Gonz谩lez won, Dr. Kronick says.
Mr. Maduro, who is far less popular than his predecessor, may have miscalculated his chances of winning in July, following his barring of popular candidates, intimidating voters, and making it difficult for Venezuelans abroad to cast their ballots.
In last summer鈥檚 vote the opposition gathered and published evidence of their victory by collecting over 80% of the machine-printed tally sheets that reflect the electronic vote.
But Mr. Maduro isn鈥檛 relying on votes to stay in power; he鈥檚 relying on the military, observers say.
鈥淭he next few days depend on those with the weapons 鈥� the armed forces,鈥� Mr. Himiob says.
Now, many are asking if the armed forces could shift alliances to allow Mr. Gonz谩lez to take the oath of office.
鈥淢any police officers and soldiers are sending messages and making decisions right now,鈥� Ms. Machado said in a press conference earlier this week. 鈥淚n every household, in the families of militaries and police, there are children, partners, parents, siblings inviting them to be part of鈥� the opposition, she said.
Geopolitical factors, such as last month鈥檚 fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, one of Mr. Maduro鈥檚 allies, has sparked hope in the opposition. Other Venezuelan allies like Russia and Iran are now distracted, grappling with their own problems, Ms. Machado says.
Venezuela鈥檚 inauguration ceremony is not an end date for the opposition, says Mr. D铆az Pulgar. He believes the leaders of Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia 鈥� who tried to facilitate negotiations for a peaceful leadership transition last year 鈥� will have to take a stand if Mr. Maduro gets sworn in without proof of electoral victory. However, all three governments are sending representatives to attend Mr. Maduro鈥檚 inauguration.
Before noon on Thursday, opposition supporters started gathering in cities and towns across Venezuela. It is no small feat following the mass arrests and detentions following the July vote, and at a time when citizens regularly clear their phones of pro-Gonz谩lez text messages or photos before leaving home.
鈥淚f we as Venezuelans manage to overcome this fear [of expressing our democratic will], there will no way to repress鈥� us, Ms. Machado said earlier this week. Venezuela鈥檚 democratic destiny, the opposition believes, is still up for grabs.
