Trump leans on Carney, but Canada has its own leverage in US trade talks
| Washington and Toronto
Moments before Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived at the White House Tuesday for a high-stakes t锚te-脿-t锚te, President Donald Trump poked at his guest with a social media post.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 need ANYTHING they have, other than their friendship,鈥� President Trump , listing top imports from the United States鈥� northern neighbor. 鈥淭hey, on the other hand, need EVERYTHING from us!鈥�
It was Mr. Trump鈥檚 way of suggesting to the new Canadian prime minister, 鈥淵ou don鈥檛 have the cards鈥� 鈥� the president鈥檚 infamous line belittling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during their disastrous Oval Office meeting in February.
Why We Wrote This
Canada is the largest U.S. export market, yet trade tensions have been running high. A meeting Tuesday between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney could open the door to efforts to reset the relationship.
Except that Canada does have 鈥渃ards鈥� in its relationship with the U.S., including the commodities it exports southward, such as heavy oil and electricity, say analysts of the bilateral relationship.
鈥淚f President Trump tries to play the leverage game with Canada, they have some leverage,鈥� says Gordon Giffin, former U.S. ambassador to Canada under President Bill Clinton.
Beyond the ongoing trade war, with U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods as high as 25%, Tuesday鈥檚 Oval Office meeting highlighted the issue that helped make Mr. Carney prime minister in last week鈥檚 elections: Mr. Trump鈥檚 continuing threats to annex Canada, and make it the 51st state.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not for sale,鈥� Mr. Carney said. 鈥淚t won鈥檛 be for sale, ever.鈥�
鈥淣ever say never,鈥� Mr. Trump said later on the subject. Mr. Carney, seated next to him, mouthed the word 鈥渘ever鈥� several times in response.
The 鈥�51st state鈥� threats began several months ago as a way to troll former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose center-left Liberal Party appeared headed toward defeat in the next election. In March, Mr. Trudeau resigned and was replaced by Mr. Carney, the new Liberal Party leader, a former central banker who had never held elective office. Suddenly, Liberal prospects improved dramatically 鈥� with both Mr. Trudeau鈥檚 departure and Mr. Carney鈥檚 pro-Canada stance against Mr. Trump. The hockey term 鈥淓lbows up鈥� became the winning Liberal slogan.
In both the half-hour, on-camera Oval Office meeting and the private lunch with Mr. Trump that followed, Mr. Carney鈥檚 task was to keep things civil and constructive, while standing up for Canada鈥檚 interests, analysts say. He appeared to do that, despite the tensions.
鈥淭his is the beginning of a conversation, not necessarily 鈥榙eal day,鈥欌�� says Christopher Sands, director of Johns Hopkins University鈥檚 Center for Canadian Studies.
It was the first time the two men had ever met, and thus it was a 鈥済et-to-know-you session,鈥� on top of all the larger issues at stake.
Mr. Carney brings certain advantages to the table that former Prime Minister Trudeau, scion of a famous Canadian political family, never had. Mr. Carney鈥檚 r茅sum茅 includes tours as central banker for both Canada and England, as well as years in the private sector, including 13 years at the investment bank Goldman Sachs.
鈥淭rump will respect that kind of business record,鈥� says former Ambassador Giffin. In fact, Mr. Trump expressed his respect for Mr. Carney as they met.
What鈥檚 more, Mr. Carney served as governor of the central bank of England during Brexit, the tumultuous period in the United Kingdom that resulted in its 2020 departure from the European Union鈥檚 political and trade alliance. Some observers draw similarities to the U.S.鈥檚 current Trump-driven move toward trade protectionism.
But at the very least, Mr. Carney鈥檚 experience with Brexit could help him now, as a newly minted politician.
鈥淎t both central banks, there were a lot of political issues swirling around him,鈥� Professor Sands says. 鈥淗e wasn鈥檛 necessarily the front man, but he鈥檚 not uncomfortable around world leaders.鈥�
Dr. Sands also suspects Mr. Carney knows how to keep his cool: 鈥淗e鈥檚 gotten by, by being positive and flattering when he needs to be.鈥�
Gordon Ritchie, who negotiated Canada鈥檚 first free trade agreement with the U.S., says the Canadian prime minister had to withstand several Trump distortions. When Mr. Trump was asked if anything at the meeting Tuesday would change his mind on tariffs, he said no. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 really want cars from Canada,鈥� Mr. Trump said.
But that statement doesn鈥檛 show the reality of North America鈥檚 automobile industry, says Mr. Ritchie. 鈥淕oing back to 1965, we鈥檝e had an integrated automotive industry, continued under the various free trade agreements, and you will not find a car crossing the border that is solely Canadian,鈥� he says.
Canada鈥檚 main challenge moving forward is that Tuesday鈥檚 conciliatory tone could evaporate at any moment. 鈥淗is word is worth nothing,鈥� Mr. Ritchie says of President Trump. 鈥淗e鈥檚 in complete violation of the [trade] agreement that he signed, which now is 鈥楥anada taking terrible advantage of the Americans,鈥� when a little while back it was 鈥榯he best deal in history,鈥� although it was almost indistinguishable from the previous [trade] deal, which was 鈥榯he worst deal in history.鈥欌��
He says trade deals only work if they are in the mutual interest of both parties. The agreement holds together by shared interest.
鈥淐arney is a very pragmatic guy. He is very knowledgeable about how trade actually works. He鈥檚 dealt with tough situations. He can certainly deal with this. He will explain as he sees it where the mutual interest lies, and then will act accordingly.鈥�
At a press conference before returning to Canada, Mr. Carney said this marks the point at which 鈥渟erious discussion begins.鈥�
