On eve of election, Canada鈥檚 Tories try to prove they鈥檙e ready to confront Trump
| Vaughan, Ontario
The chants erupt as Canada鈥檚 Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre takes the podium.
鈥淐ommon sense! Common sense!鈥� yells the audience gathered at a union headquarters north of Toronto, one of the final campaign events before Canada鈥檚 April 28 federal elections.
That鈥檚 exactly how the Conservatives hope to position themselves: as the obvious choice to lead a country buffeted by domestic problems like a cost-of-living crisis, and by international ones like the global trade war and battle of sovereignty that it鈥檚 locked in with Donald Trump鈥檚 America.
Why We Wrote This
Once seen as a lock to be Canada鈥檚 next prime minister, Pierre Poilievre is now trailing in Canada鈥檚 federal elections. His challenge in the last days of the race: to convince Canadians that conservatism has the solution to deal with Donald Trump.
But Mr. Trump鈥檚 actions have put in a tricky spot Mr. Poilievre, a lifelong politician who boasts that his ideas have not wavered since he was a teen, when he became a young conservative. His divisive political performance, which has made him wildly popular among his base, has become unpalatable to the broader Canadian public.
Once and expected to win in a landslide, the Conservatives are now seen as long shots, as they trail the ruling Liberal Party in electoral districts across the country. They are now in a race to show that Canadian conservatism is the solution to the Trump problem, rather than part of it.
鈥淧art of why we鈥檙e so susceptible to Trump aggressions, and why we feel so weak and disempowered in that context, is that our country is weak. We鈥檙e not entirely self-sufficient; we can鈥檛 even defend ourselves,鈥� says Ginny Roth, communications director for Mr. Poilievre鈥檚 2022 Conservative leadership bid. 鈥淭his is not to justify Trump鈥檚 aggressions ... but the correct response to that is to strengthen our country from within.鈥�
A conservative 鈥渃onstituency guy鈥�
That鈥檚 what Mr. Poilievre has been promising all along.
The Conservative leader grew up in western Canada. Adopted, he was raised by two schoolteachers in Calgary, Alberta, and has said his first political ideas were shaped at age 14 after reading Milton Friedman鈥檚 鈥淐apitalism and Freedom.鈥� He joined conservative clubs in high school and university, and began working in politics right after he graduated, first in Alberta and then in Ottawa, Ontario.
Lisa MacLeod, a former Conservative lawmaker in Ontario, worked with Mr. Poilievre when he was a young political aspirant in Ottawa 鈥� so young his hair sported frosted tips, she remembers. He was elected in 2004 to the House of Commons at age 25, the youngest to serve in Parliament, and he quickly gained a reputation for his confrontational partisanship.
But Ms. MacLeod says that belies his deep empathy for his voters. She calls him the consummate 鈥渃onstituency guy,鈥� and she says it鈥檚 more than just politics. She sees it in him as a father with a child with special needs; she sees it in him as a friend who has called her often since she went public with health challenges.
That鈥檚 not the way he has sounded on the Parliament floor, however. He once called Canada鈥檚 prior Liberal leader, Justin Trudeau, a 鈥渨acko prime minister.鈥�
Mr. Poilievre rose to national prominence during the waning of the pandemic, as Canadian personal finances were decimated. He gained influence by supporting the 鈥淔reedom Convoy,鈥� a trucker protest in Canada that occupied Ottawa for weeks in early 2022, opposing vaccine mandates.
Today as he promises lower taxes, smaller government, stronger borders, and tougher punishment for crime 鈥� an end to 鈥渨oke nonsense,鈥� per one of his most popular one-liners criticizing the Liberals 鈥� he says his ideas have never bent to fit the political moment. That鈥檚 whether Mr. Trump is in office or not.
鈥淲hen I look back at everything I鈥檝e done for my entire political career to the time I was a teenager ... I鈥檝e been saying precisely the same thing the entire time,鈥� he told right-wing personality Jordan Peterson in a January podcast.
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Trumped by Trump?
But the political plates of Canada have shifted beneath him.
In January, when Mr. Trudeau, long Mr. Poilievre鈥檚 main target, announced he was stepping down after nine years in office, Mr. Trump was assuming his second term and threatening to annex Canada. Ever since, new Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, a former central banker, has surged on an emotive message 鈥� 鈥淓lbows up,鈥� a hockey reference 鈥� against the United States.
Like citizens across many Western countries, Canadians have rallied around their incumbents in the face of Mr. Trump. In Canada that means the Liberals now have a clear 4-point lead according to the latest polls, which would have been unthinkable three months ago.
It has forced Mr. Poilievre, whose populist slogans argue that Canada is 鈥渂roken,鈥� into an 鈥渙ffside position,鈥� says Tim Powers, chair of Summa Strategies, a Canadian public affairs consulting firm. Suddenly Mr. Poilievre, the performative career politician, has a jittery Canada on edge.
While Liberals have dubbed Mr. Poilievre 鈥淢aple Syrup MAGA,鈥� Canadian conservatism generally is far less populist and divisive than its American counterpart. Canadians are less religious and socially conservative. Government health care is supported by all parties. Canadian multiculturalism is a sacred cow 鈥� Mr. Poilievre鈥檚 wife, Anaida Poilievre, was born in Venezuela 鈥� and marks key electoral battlegrounds.
鈥淭here鈥檚 no way to be a white nativist conservative and win nationally in Canada,鈥� says Jim Farney, a professor at the University of Regina in Saskatchewan.
Still, Mr. Poilievre has risen within his party because he鈥檚 moved it further right. His base is 鈥渘ot pro-annexation,鈥� says Dr. Farney, referring to Mr. Trump鈥檚 repeated claim that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state. But Mr. Poilievre鈥檚 supporters would 鈥減robably think the DOGE efforts are OK, that universities are full of 鈥榳oke鈥� people who need to be pulled back and restrained,鈥� the professor adds.
The Conservatives have lost support among more moderate voters, particularly those who planned to vote for the leftist New Democrats and the Bloc Qu茅b茅cois.
As Mr. Powers puts it, 鈥淚 think at heart, Canadians are more old-school conservatives. They are pragmatic and rule-based, a little averse to change. And at the moment, that kind of works for a guy who wears a blue suit and was a global banker.鈥�
Supporters with pocketbook issues
That doesn鈥檛 work for the crowd at Mr. Poilievre鈥檚 latest rally in Vaughan.
The setting at the Laborers鈥� International Union of North America reinforces one of Mr. Poilievre鈥檚 winning slogans: 鈥淏oots, not suits.鈥�
The male, working-class vote in Canada is key for the Conservative leader, who has excelled at nostalgia that taps a deep frustration over the cost of living, especially for housing, here.
鈥淲e work so hard, and I still can鈥檛 buy my own home,鈥� says Nate Ferguson, a construction worker and unionist on the sidelines of the rally. 鈥淚t鈥檚 sad, man.鈥�
鈥淲e鈥檙e in our 20s, but how can we have kids?鈥� asks his girlfriend, Breana Coultis. 鈥淣ot everyone鈥檚 getting free handouts from rich parents.鈥�
They don鈥檛 believe Canada should be the 51st state, but it鈥檚 also not the issue that surfaces as their top concerns.
Ms. Roth, Mr. Poilievre鈥檚 former communications director, says she finds the 鈥淭rump effect鈥� in Canada divided along age and class lines. Those who are wealthier and more settled 鈥渁re almost obsessed with it,鈥� she says. Those who are younger, who don鈥檛 own a home, or who don鈥檛 have job that pays enough to get into the market or start a family, see it as secondary to pocketbook issues. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e more concerned with the fact that they can鈥檛 afford to fill their car with gas or pay the rent.鈥�
Mr. Poilievre鈥檚 strongest offensive move has been to paint Mr. Carney as a continuation of Mr. Trudeau鈥檚 government, a tenure that saw filling the car with gas and paying the rent get a lot harder for Canadians. It鈥檚 what Mr. Poilievre has dubbed, with his flair for alliteration, the 鈥渓ost Liberal decade.鈥�
