Texas primary sizzles as two very different Democrats face off in Senate race
| Waco, Texas
Democrats in Texas are getting excited.
Ahead of the March 3 U.S. Senate primary, more people have voted early in the Democratic race so far this year than voted in the entire 2022 primary, according to VoteHub, an independent and nonpartisan political analysis website.
The contest pits Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a member of Congress from Dallas, against state Rep. James Talarico, from the Austin suburbs. Voters have been casting their ballots in record numbers, giving the party faithful hope that one of their candidates has a chance of becoming the first Democrat elected statewide in Texas in over 30 years.
Why We Wrote This
In politically red Texas, Democrats rarely have hope. But their U.S. Senate primary race features two candidates whose contrasting styles and online reach are giving the party a jolt of energy.
In one sense, these numbers are not surprising. A midterm election typically favors the out-of-power party, and the in-power party tends to suffer even more if the president is unpopular. Both factors are true here for the Republican Party and President Donald Trump. Most polls show Mr. Trump鈥檚 favorability rating has dropped to averages in the low 40s nationally, and to about 50% among Texas voters.
But the Senate race is giving Democrats extra juice this year, experts and pollsters say. With the candidates鈥� policy positions mostly aligned, the Crockett-Talarico contest has become a clash of styles and strategies. It鈥檚 a race that Democrats will be closely watching nationwide, because of its importance to the party鈥檚 efforts to take control of the U.S. Senate and how it embodies divisions within the Democratic Party.
鈥淒emocrats could use a few high-profile dogfights in the primary because it gins up interest,鈥� says James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 know if it will generate a victory for them, but so far it鈥檚 good to ... excite the base.鈥�
Whoever wins the primary will face off in November鈥檚 general election against the winner of the Republican primary, where four-term Sen. John Cornyn faces a tough challenge from Texas Attorney General and MAGA firebrand Ken Paxton.
On Friday, former Vice President Kamala Harris weighed in with her first major endorsement since leaving office. She recorded a robocall urging voters to turn out for Representative Crockett.
鈥淗unger for a different kind of politics鈥�
On a chilly Monday evening in Waco, the line to see Representative Talarico stretched around the block. Whoever wins the Democratic primary is unlikely to win here 鈥� Mr. Trump won this mostly rural central Texas county by 33 points in 2024 鈥� but Talarico supporters packed the ornate, century-old Hippodrome Theatre.
The turnout in the Republican stronghold encouraged Oliver Santander, who attended the rally with his sister, Emily.
鈥淚鈥檓 just happy to see everyone here,鈥� he said. 鈥淵ou don鈥檛 think your voice is as loud until you get around the crowd like this.鈥�
Mr. Talarico entered the race as a relative unknown, but he has shot to stardom following a strategy popular among recent Democratic candidates. He has courted moderate Texans, touting his 海角大神 faith and his work across the aisle as a state lawmaker.
He has also enjoyed several viral interviews. His first major national appearance came when he appeared on Joe Rogan鈥檚 podcast in July last year and Mr. Rogan said he should run for president. More recently, CBS pulled his interview with Stephen Colbert on the Late Show off the air over concerns it would violate a Federal Communications Commission regulation on political messaging. The interview instead appeared on the show鈥檚 YouTube channel, and the controversy only seemed to attract more eyeballs: at least 6 million more views than Colbert鈥檚 quarterly average on TV.
A Presbyterian seminary student, Mr. Talarico鈥檚 decision to make his faith 鈥� and his opposition to 海角大神 Nationalism 鈥� a centerpiece of his politics has helped attract supporters. The hope among some of them lining up in the cold in Waco is that he can attract support from non-Democratic voters as well.
鈥淚 am tired of being pitted against my neighbor. I am tired of being told to hate my neighbor,鈥� Mr. Talarico noted at his campaign event. 鈥淎cross the political spectrum there is a deep hunger for a different kind of politics.鈥�
Both Representatives Talarico and Crockett 鈥渉ave a lot to offer,鈥� said Bill Purdue, a lifelong Democrat, as he waited to enter the theater.
But, he added, 鈥渁 Democrat like Talarico, who comes from a strong religious point of view, would have a good opportunity to catch the ear of the many religious folks that live in Texas, particularly those that are perhaps sitting on the fence.鈥�
鈥淭ry something new鈥�
Mr. Talarico emphasized his calmer style and olive-branch strategy at the Waco event. 鈥淲hen you extend an open hand rather than a fist, you鈥檒l be surprised how many people take that hand,鈥� he said.
If he represents an open hand, Ms. Crockett has happily branded herself as the fist in that analogy.
She entered the race in December with a national profile built through three years of aggressive, viral clashes with Republicans in Congress. Her firebrand style has enthused Democrats critical of the party鈥檚 unwillingness to take the fight to the Trump administration.
鈥淲e need someone who is a proven fighter in this moment, someone who will not back down, someone who will not fold,鈥� she said in last weekend. 鈥淢y track record is clear. I have always fought for the people that I represented, and I鈥檝e never folded.鈥�
Ms. Crockett is not the style of candidate Democrats have chosen to run in recent top-ticket statewide races. Former U.S. Reps. Beto O鈥橰ourke and Colin Allred 鈥� who ran for U.S. Senate in 2018 and 2024, respectively 鈥� campaigned as moderates, hoping to win over more centrist Republicans. Both lost.
While branding herself as a fighter, not a conciliator, Ms. Crockett is also running an unconventional campaign. She has spent little on campaign ads so far, and her rallies have often been pop-up events with little advance notice. She doesn鈥檛 appear to have a campaign manager or a media spokesperson. The Crockett campaign did not respond to multiple interview requests sent to a general campaign email.
These choices have frustrated national Democrats, earlier this month, but her campaign says they are her best path to victory.
鈥淲e reject the DC playbook of politics as usual, because this moment 鈥� and winning 鈥� demands something different,鈥� Karrol Rimal, a Crockett campaign staffer, told the news organization NOTUS in a statement.
This reflects a discussion national Democrats have been having, says Ren茅e Cross, a political scientist at the University of Houston.
The discussion has been that Democrats 鈥渉ave to try something new,鈥� she adds. 鈥淭hese two candidates, even though their styles are different, they have Democrats excited.鈥�
Democratic confidence has been further boosted by an unlikely victory in a state senate runoff election in January, where a union president flipped a seat in a district that Mr. Trump had won by 17 points in 2024.
That has 鈥渕ade Democrats feel like, 鈥楾his is really possible now,鈥欌�� says Dr. Cross. 鈥淚t really could be possible for Democrats to take a U.S. Senate seat.鈥�
Racial tensions in primary
The primary contest has been marked by some racial tension. Earlier this month an influencer alleged that Representative Talarico had described former Representative Allred as a 鈥渕ediocre Black man鈥� to her. Mr. Allred broadcast the allegation in a social media video and announced his endorsement of Ms.聽Crockett. Mr.聽Talarico later said he had described Mr. Allred as a mediocre campaigner. Two liberal podcasters faced fan backlash 鈥� including accusations of racism 鈥� after discouraging donations to the Crockett campaign because they don鈥檛 think she could win the general election.
One of the early ads in the primary references the claim that Ms. Crockett toward running because they believe she would be easier for the GOP to beat in a general election. That claim, along with discussions of her loud, fiery personality, play into common stereotypes of Black women, critics say.
Because both candidates are staunch progressives with few policy disagreements, these personality differences have been magnified, says Dr. Henson.
鈥淚n this race it鈥檚 more of an argument about temperament,鈥� he adds. 鈥淎nd you can鈥檛 have that without thinking that race and gender are creeping into this race as well.鈥�
Plenty of Democrats, he adds, think 鈥減eople are using Jasmine Crocket鈥檚 combative style and rhetoric to cover concerns about how her race may affect her general election prospects.鈥�
Coming down to the wire
Recent polls have returned different results. A Texas Politics Project released this week has Ms. Crockett leading by 12 points, and the overwhelming favorite among Black primary voters. A conducted by Emerson College had Mr. Talarico with a nine-point lead. An from his campaign, released this week, had him with a four-point lead.
But notably the state lawmaker entered the primary with less name recognition, and that deficit appears to be narrowing. In, 54% of Texas voters responded 鈥淒on鈥檛 Know/No opinion鈥� when asked for their view on him, according to the Texas Politics Project. That figure had dropped to 34%.
At the rally in Waco, several attendees said that they would support whichever Democrat wins the U.S. Senate primary in November 鈥� even if they favor Representative Talarico.
Dennis Hanley arrived at the rally having already voted. He said he鈥檚 been voting for Democrats in Texas for 30 years, throughout their long losing streak in statewide elections.
He has liked Mr. Talarico since his Joe Rogan podcast appearance, and he鈥檚 confident that the seminarian鈥檚 campaign means that Texas will finally elect a Democrat to statewide office.
鈥淚鈥檓 also a Jasmine Crockett fan,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e need her. But I happen to follow [Talarico鈥檚] ideology and his mindset more than hers.鈥�
鈥淭he tide of the country is definitely turning,鈥� he added. 鈥淧eople are sick of it, and I think that enough people are going to cross over 鈥� good and decent people from the other side 鈥� who鈥檝e also had enough.鈥�
Along with this story on the Democratic primary in Texas鈥� U.S. Senate race, we will run a separate story looking at the Republican primary in the same race in coming days.
Editor's note: This story, originally published on Feb. 27, was updated on the same day with news of former Vice President Kamala Harris' endorsement of Rep. Jasmine Crockett.聽
