海角大神

How the Iran war has revived interest in greener energy worldwide

A different kind of climate change has hit the Caribbean coastline of Colombia over the past few days 鈥� triggered not just by oil or gas, but also by missiles and attack drones.

It鈥檚 a change in the political climate around recently flagging international efforts to limit the effects of global warming and agree on a 鈥渞oadmap鈥� away from carbon-based fuels toward cleaner, greener energy.

The war in Iran wasn鈥檛 on the original agenda for this week鈥檚 First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, held in the Colombian city of Santa Marta. But it was clearly on the minds of delegates from the more than 50 countries represented in what the co-organizers 鈥� Colombia and the Netherlands 鈥� called an effort by a 鈥渃oalition of the willing鈥� to explore practical steps away from fossil fuels.

The conflict has choked off about one-fifth of the world鈥檚 supply of oil and gas.

鈥淲e already had a very good reason to move on,鈥� said Wopke Hoekstra, the climate envoy from the European Union. But with the war costing EU countries nearly $600 million a day, he said, 鈥渨e now also have it for commercial reasons, for reasons of independence.鈥�

Britain鈥檚 representative, Rachel Kyte, emphasized 鈥渆nergy security,鈥� saying more and more countries were concluding that 鈥渇ossil fuels are a source of instability.鈥�

The 鈥渢ransition鈥� envisaged by the conference is unlikely to be quick or easy.

Key oil- and gas-producing states rely on their energy exports. And, critically, countries worldwide are still a long way from being able to do without fossil fuels.

That explains why the war鈥檚 effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, vital to oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf, has dramatically raised energy prices and hit economies across the globe.

When one major Arab oil producer, the United Arab Emirates, announced this week it would be leaving the OPEC petroleum cartel, it signaled its intention to increase production, adding that it expected 鈥渟ustained growth鈥� in demand once the war was over.

Yet the 鈥減olitical climate change鈥� also appears likely to have a sustained effect.

The conference in Colombia was just the latest sign of how the war in the Gulf has prompted countries dependent on imported oil and gas to take a more urgent look at alternatives.

That鈥檚 particularly true in Asia, which is deeply dependent on oil and gas passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

In Japan, despite the lingering memory of the 2011 nuclear accident in Fukushima, an opposition party leader backed government moves to restart reactors in response to the spike in energy costs from the war.

In South Korea, which is also restarting several reactors, President Lee Jae-myung said the conflict had made it clear that 鈥渄epending on fossil fuels is dangerous.鈥�

India, Pakistan, and Thailand have also announced new green energy projects in response to the war.

The EU鈥檚 top official, Ursula von der Leyen, urged a rethink of the decision by Germany and some other states to move away from nuclear power after the Fukushima disaster. The Iran war, she said, made that seem like a 鈥渟trategic mistake.鈥�

Britain and Germany both announced an expansion of wind-power projects. And consumers, too, have been part of the wartime shift: Purchases of electric vehicles in Britain, Germany, France, and Spain have risen.

Many more motorists, of course, still fill their vehicles with gas or diesel. A wholesale move from fossil fuels will require time, economic adjustments, and a significant investment in the technology and infrastructure required for a reliable green energy supply.

But delegates at this week鈥檚 conference believed the war would shift the terms of international debate and drive home the need for such an energy transition.

A few months ago, the mere idea of accepting that transition as a direction of travel faced stiff headwinds at the latest of the annual United Nations-led conferences to implement the 2015 Paris agreement.

The 2023 climate change conference, or COP, did recognize that aim for the first time.

But President Donald Trump has since pulled the United States out of the Paris process. At November鈥檚 COP, though 80 of the nearly 195 delegations wanted a transition road map, Saudi Arabia and other oil states prevented its mention in the final communiqu茅.

Brazil, the host nation, came up with a compromise: Interested countries could draw up proposals for a 鈥渧oluntary road map鈥� to be considered by this year鈥檚 COP, scheduled for November in Turkey.

That was the reason for the conference in Colombia.

The UAE鈥檚 expectation of rebounding oil and gas demand after the war could well be borne out.

Still, the war appears to have brought home the longer-term benefits of moving away from fossil fuels.

That鈥檚 certainly the view of the head of the International Energy Agency.

Governments worldwide, Fatih Birol said last week, would 鈥渞eview their energy strategies.鈥�

Predicting a 鈥渟ignificant boost鈥� for green energy sources, Mr. Birol said the 鈥渞isk and reliability鈥� equation of fossil fuel imports had changed.

And he used a vivid metaphor to emphasize how fragile that 鈥渞eliance鈥� was now.

鈥淭he vase is broken,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he damage is done.鈥�