Can resource-rich countries go green? Colombia鈥檚 trying to find out.
| Yopal, Colombia
With mountains and lush forest as a backdrop, a 745-foot crane rises skyward, lifting drill pipes into the Flore帽a Well No. 18. It is located in one of Colombia鈥檚 most promising exploratory sites 鈥� holding an estimated 250 million barrels of oil and gas, roughly what Colombia consumes in a year.
But, if President Gustavo Petro鈥檚 vision comes to fruition, it could be one of Colombia鈥檚 last.
Colombia鈥檚 first avowedly leftist president has set out an ambitious green agenda since taking office in 2022. Mr. Petro is the first leader of a major petroleum-producing nation to halt new fossil fuel exploration contracts (though existing contracts remain valid). He has raised taxes on the country鈥檚 oil and coal companies, vowing to increase investment in renewable energy projects such as wind and solar farms, and to cut the bureaucracy that can hinder the deployment of renewables.
Why We Wrote This
President Gustavo Petro is rushing to make Colombia green. But his energy agenda highlights the messy trade-offs called for when fossil fuels remain key to the economy.
His government is pushing Congress to ban fracking, and Ecopetrol, the state oil and gas firm, has committed to net-zero emissions by 2050 鈥� the first such company in Latin America to set that goal.
But Colombia has faced challenges and contradictions as it pursues its environmental plan, from threats to its energy security to environmental tradeoffs in importing natural gas.
At a moment when the idea of going green is becoming increasingly popular in Latin America, resource-rich countries like Colombia are finding that putting big ideas into action can clash with other important goals such as social spending or maintaining fiscal stability. Colombia is running one of the region鈥檚 largest fiscal deficits, and oil and coal revenues remain central to financing the budget 鈥� including Mr. Petro鈥檚 plans to boost pensions and expand education and health programs.
Mr. Petro鈥檚 bid for a rapid energy transition is being closely watched among political leaders and investors across the region. Success could make Colombia a model, but failure could leave a lasting mark on both the environment and Colombia鈥檚 finances.
鈥淧etro is a poster of what not to do if you care about the environment,鈥� says Ricardo Hausmann, founder of the Growth Lab at the聽John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. As long as global demand for fossil fuels does not change, he says, Mr. Petro鈥檚 efforts will be in vain.
The growing gas problem
Colombia鈥檚 oil and gas sector has dwindled since peaking in the early 2010s, but it continues to make up about a fifth of the country鈥檚 exports and accounts for about 10% of the gross domestic product. In Casanare state, home to Flore帽a Well No. 18, the petroleum industry made up 82% of GDP in 1999, but by 2023 that share was halved.
Once a regional leader in gasification 鈥� with 70% of households cooking on gas, which is more environmentally friendly and healthier than wood 鈥� Colombia is now obliged to import gas. For the first time in nearly half a century, last year it turned to imports to meet household and industrial demand.
Experts say Mr. Petro鈥檚 ban on new oil and gas exploration contracts and Colombia鈥檚 expected fracking ban could further undermine Colombia鈥檚 energy security 鈥� and its environmental health. Without enough gas, Colombians are using dirtier alternatives like carbon or wood, accelerating deforestation, says Esteban 脕ngel, an energy expert at Wood Mackenzie, an energy advisory firm.
To make Colombia carbon neutral by 2050, Mr. Petro has leaned in on renewables. His government has inaugurated several solar parks and launched Colombia Solar, a program to equip low-income households with solar panels.
But renewables are costly, and Colombia has a deepening budget deficit. Some projects are held back by environmental licensing requirements and prior consultations with local communities, who are not necessarily on board with proposed wind and solar initiatives.
As domestic gas reserves dwindle, and Mr. Petro plans to stop exploring for new sources, the president has floated the idea of importing gas from Qatar as a stop-gap solution to the dilemma. That gas could cost three times more than local supplies, and emit up to 50% more carbon dioxide, according to Mr. 脕ngel, because imported gas needs to be liquefied, transported halfway across the world, and then re-gasified.
鈥淚t is not reasonable to just exploit existing reserves harder,鈥� says Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University鈥檚 Baker Institute, who sees Colombia鈥檚 plan as shortsighted. He says that if Mr. Petro wants to protect the climate, he should instead try to address the demand for fossil fuels, for instance by eliminating Colombia鈥檚 petroleum subsidies and introducing a carbon tax.
Ricardo Roa, president of Ecopetrol, says this administration鈥檚 goal 鈥渋s to place natural gas at the center of the energy transition, as the fuel of the energy transition.鈥� But Susana Muhamad, Colombia鈥檚 former minister of environment, says that鈥檚 missing the point of a green transition. 鈥淕as is a fossil fuel. It is greenwashing to portray it as something else.鈥� The fossil fuel era, she says, must end.
A regional struggle
Colombia鈥檚 struggles to deliver on its green agenda are reflected across the region.
Brazil will host the COP30 climate summit in November, with the stated goal of accelerating the energy transition. But in its current five-year plan, Petrobras, Brazil鈥檚 state-owned oil and gas company, has allocated more than 70% of investment to exploring for new oil deposits, while just 15% will go toward an energy transition.
Ecuador hosted a historic referendum in August 2023 voting to halt oil drilling in the Yasun铆 National Park, a biodiverse region in the Amazon and home to Indigenous communities. The move thrilled activists, but nearly two years later, oil drilling and few of the roughly 240 wells in the block have been shut down.
Last year, Mexicans elected President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, an environmental engineer and former Mexico City mayor known for her environmental agenda. Yet she faces the crushing debt of state-owned petroleum company Pemex, and a grid that cannot keep up with Mexico鈥檚 rising energy demands. She is doubling down on oil and gas exploration, hoping to boost Pemex鈥檚 crude output by nearly a third by 2030.
Globally, continued fossil fuel demand makes it hard for leaders to push their own energy transitions. What鈥檚 more, Mr. Petro鈥檚 focus on lowering his nation鈥檚 carbon footprint does not help lower the world鈥檚 footprint, according to Dr. Hausmann. 鈥淚f a country unilaterally reduces its production, that gives more room for OPEC to increase its own [production],鈥� he says. 鈥淩eductions in oil production in one country do not reduce global oil production.鈥�
