Iran won't be at Syria talks. So what?
| Istanbul
Twenty-four hours of diplomatic chaos on the eve of peace talks on Syria has sparked a furious outcry from Iran, which claims that its involvement in negotiations is essential for a resolution.聽
Yesterday United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon revoked his invitation to Iran to participate in the talks in Switzerland, less than a day after issuing it on promises that Iran would play a 鈥減ositive and constructive role鈥� in ending Syria鈥檚 three-year conflict.聽
The revocation elicited relief in Washington and among opposition groups that had vowed not to attend in the presence of Iran, Syria's military ally. But it provoked surprise in Iran at the exclusion of such a key player, when all others engaged in this regional proxy war were invited to the table.聽
鈥淲ho in their right mind will leave the destiny of the Syrian people 鈥撀燼n important country in the strategic region of the Middle East 鈥撀爄n the hands of terrorists?鈥� said Ali Akbar Velayati, the foreign affairs advisor to Iran鈥檚 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, using the Syrian regime and its allies' terminology. 聽
Iran has been one of the strongest backers of the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Along with the Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah, which it arms, Iran provides extensive military support, personnel, and cash that has enabled Mr. Assad to survive a popular uprising that聽morphed聽into a civil war.聽As a staunch supporter of the beleaguered Syrian leader, the Islamic Republic聽may have the leverage to require the regime to compromise.
Mr. Ban has argued that all key players must work together to end the Syrian conflict.聽But Iran's invite was only to attend the first day of talks聽on Wednesday,聽a show of support for peace by foreign ministers from some 40 countries in Montreux. The real negotiations between "Syrian parties," the UN says, will begin聽on Friday聽in Geneva.聽
Iran could be influential in the outcome in Syria, by perhaps convincing Assad not to run in elections later this year 鈥� a scenario that Assad this week said had a "substantial" chance of happening 鈥� or trying to broker a mutually acceptable replacement, says a Tehran-based analyst who asked not to be named.
"Iranian and Syrian ties so far have been based on common interests, not friendship between Assad and Iran," says the analyst. Syria has been the geographical linchpin of an "Axis of Resistance," connecting Iran to Hezbollah, as well as to the Arab world and to Israel's northern borders. But while Syria is essential to that connection, Assad is not.
"Convincing Assad is part of what Iran can do," he said. "The post-Assad regime, whatever it is, can [still] have a close relationship with Iran, because of common threats and interests."聽
Tangled diplomacy
Ban鈥檚 decision came after聽angry聽pressure from the US and a threat from the main Western-backed Syrian opposition group to boycott the talks if Iran was not disinvited. Iran鈥檚 main regional rival, Saudi Arabia, as well as Qatar and Turkey, are primary backers of the rebels seeking to topple Mr. Assad聽and will be at the opening session.聽
The criterion for attending these 鈥淕eneva II鈥� Syria talks, according to the US and UN, is acceptance of a June 2012 communique agreed at the 鈥�Geneva I鈥� meeting that lays out a transitional authority without Assad himself.
When he issued Iran鈥檚 invite, Ban said that he and聽Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif聽鈥渁gree that the goal of the negotiations is to establish, by mutual consent, a transitional governing body with full executive powers.鈥� When he rescinded the invitation, Ban said Iran had reneged on a 鈥渟tated commitment鈥� and 鈥渉as chosen to remain outside that basic understanding.鈥澛�
Today Mr. Zarif said Iran regretted Ban鈥檚 decision, which 鈥渋s not appropriate for the prestige of the secretary general,鈥� and that he told the UN chief 鈥渆xplicitly that we don鈥檛 accept any preconditions for participating."
Ban 鈥渘ot having the courage鈥� to explain the withdrawal of the invite was 鈥渕ore regrettable鈥� than revoking the invite itself, he said, according to Iranian media.
That said, Russia, as well as the Syrian regime's representatives, will be at the negotiating table despite their opposition to such an outcome. And Russia was among the supporters of the Geneva I communique and incorporated it in a unanimous UN Security Council resolution, though it has shown little inclination to ditch Assad.聽
The first day of the talks聽should be open to 鈥渁ll countries, without any exclusion, that influence the situation on the ground,鈥� Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday. Mr. Lavrov said that with such a disparate array of countries invited, from Mexico and South Korea to Japan, Brazil and India 鈥� as well as nearly all regional players 鈥� 鈥渋f there is not Iran in this list, then I think the peace talks will resemble a hypocrisy.鈥�
Guaranteed failure without Iran?
Iranian lawmaker Seyed Hossein Naghavi Hosseini called Ban鈥檚 decision 鈥渁 shameful act in the history of the United Nations.鈥� Why was the UN chief, he asked, 鈥渦nder pressure from [rebel] criminal and terrorist groups and [Islamist] Salafi and Takfiri movements that behead innocent people?鈥澛�
Although not represented at the talks, the ranks of those fighting the regime have expanded to include foreign jihadist聽groups, some linked to Al Qaeda.
鈥淎ccepting the Geneva I agreement means legitimizing terrorists supported by the Zionist regime and oppressive and benighted governments,鈥� said Mr. Velayati, the advisor to Khamenei, in an interview with the conservative Tabnak website.
From Iran's perspective, a possible silver lining, conservative lawmaker Ali Jalilian suggested today, was that differences between the regime and the rebels were too great聽for a solution.聽
鈥淚f Iran had attended they would have attributed this failure to Iran鈥檚 presence. Therefore our absence is to our benefit and will prove that they can鈥檛 progress without Iran鈥檚 participation,鈥� Mr. Jalilian told parliament.
