Why a Taliban victory may not be everything Pakistan wished for
| LONDON
In 2017, then-President Donald Trump singled out Pakistan for giving 鈥渟afe haven to agents of chaos, violence, and terror,鈥� the same groups 鈥渢hat try every single day to kill our people鈥� in Afghanistan.
At the time, it was seen as long overdue recognition of an open secret: that Pakistan, a U.S. ally, was backing its enemy, the Taliban.
鈥淲e have been paying Pakistan billions 鈥� at the same time they are housing the very terrorists that we are fighting,鈥� said Mr. Trump. 鈥淏ut that will have to change.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
Pakistan鈥檚 heavy investment in the Taliban was vital in leading to America鈥檚 military defeat in Afghanistan. But is the prospect of a sweeping Taliban victory giving Pakistan second thoughts?
Fast-forward four years, and what has changed instead is that the Taliban are today sweeping across Afghanistan and threatening the U.S.-backed government in Kabul, as U.S. forces withdraw unconditionally.
Pakistan has invested heavily in just such an outcome. Despite consistent denials, Pakistan鈥檚 Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency has been instrumental since 2006 in boosting the insurgents with explosives, cash, ideological recruits, and a cross-border safe haven, analysts say.
And yet, as the Taliban juggernaut has accelerated its advance and vowed to re-establish a strict Islamic Emirate, signs of concern are emerging in Pakistan about the dangers of an outright Taliban victory over the United States and the government in Kabul.
Key players in Islamabad may be changing their thinking, as they weigh the prospects of a relatively friendly Taliban-led state against the risk of sparking renewed civil war and instability in Afghanistan, a refugee exodus, and an emboldened cadre of Pakistan鈥檚 own recently regenerated jihadists.
鈥淧akistan wants the Taliban to take power [as] a culmination of the long-term strategy of bringing the Taliban back,鈥� says Asfandyar Mir, an expert in political violence at Stanford University鈥檚 Center for International Security and Cooperation.
鈥淏ut at the same time it is nervous. It certainly appears to have some buyer鈥檚 remorse [with] concerns that the Pakistanis are starting to express more and more,鈥� says Mr. Mir, speaking from Islamabad.
Pakistan鈥檚 homefront
One Pakistani concern is that the 鈥淭aliban鈥檚 dependence on them is going down, which has manifested itself in testy, poor behavior in meetings with senior military intelligence officials,鈥� he says, giving Pakistani officials the impression that today鈥檚 Taliban are 鈥渉arder to control鈥� than in the past.
A larger concern for Pakistan is the energizing impact the Taliban鈥檚 ascendance is having on Pakistan鈥檚 own jihadist insurgents, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, which has close ties to the Afghan Taliban and has recently regenerated a campaign to overthrow the Pakistani state.
Pakistani intelligence and army chiefs reportedly have briefed Pakistani lawmakers that the Taliban and TTP 鈥撀爓hich has targeted numerous Pakistani intelligence and military officials 鈥� are two sides of the same coin.
鈥淥ur jihadis will be emboldened. They will say that 鈥榠f America can be beaten, what is the Pakistan army to stand in our way?鈥欌�� an unnamed senior Pakistani official told The Wall Street Journal of the Taliban advance.
鈥淭he TTP has really stepped up its violence against Pakistan. They have been hitting various military targets the last 6 to 12 months,鈥� says Mr. Mir. 鈥淧akistan probably underestimated that if you bring the Taliban to power in Afghanistan, that will obviously embolden Islamist insurgents inside the country. Due to the TTP鈥檚 stepped-up attacks, that reality is starting to crystallize.鈥�
The Taliban now control more than half of Afghanistan鈥檚 400-plus district centers 鈥� most of those seized since June 鈥� but none of the 34 provincial capitals. The United Nations reported Monday that 5,183聽civilians were killed or聽wounded the first six months of this year 鈥� a 47% increase over the same period last year.
The United States, Russia, and China have all pressured Pakistan to convince the Taliban not to advance on Kabul, and to instead find a political solution. In March, all four nations issued a joint statement opposing the 鈥渞estoration of the Islamic Emirate鈥� 鈥� the name the Taliban used for their state when they ruled in the late 1990s, which was recognized then only by Pakistan.
The Taliban immediately rejected the statement as 鈥渁gainst all principle and not acceptable.鈥�
Khalilzad鈥檚 visit to Islamabad
Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. envoy for Afghanistan, visited Islamabad July 19 and met with the ISI chief and top officials. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has said his country, in the past, 鈥渕ade a mistake by choosing between warring parties鈥� in Afghanistan and now has 鈥渘o favorites.鈥� After meeting Ambassdor Khalilzad, he said instability would cause 鈥渟erious challenges鈥� for Pakistan.
Just days before, Pakistan had tried and failed to convene a meeting in Islamabad between senior Afghan leaders, including President Ashraf Ghani and former President Hamid Karzai, with top Taliban leaders, to hammer out a power-sharing deal. Pakistan鈥檚 national security adviser, Moeed Yusuf, told Indian television Saturday that Pakistan was 鈥渙bsessively focused鈥� on a political settlement but had 鈥渧ery limited leverage鈥� over the Taliban.
Kabul has complained bitterly for years about Pakistan鈥檚 support of the Taliban, and seen few signs of change. Whatever its security concerns, Pakistan has not stopped the Afghan Taliban from using its territory to recruit Pakistani fighters, provide safe haven, or care for wounded fighters.
President Ghani on July 17 said Pakistan had, in the previous month, allowed more than 10,000聽鈥渏ihadi聽fighters鈥澛爐o enter Afghanistan.
鈥淐an Taliban convince a single [Afghan] including themselves that they aren鈥檛 puppets of Rawalpindi鈥檚 GHQ [Pakistani military headquarters]? They are just a kill and destruction squad in the hands of Pakistan,鈥� tweeted Amrullah Saleh, the Afghan first vice president and former spy chief, earlier this month. 鈥淧ak has once again opted for a very dangerous and costly adventure,鈥� he said in another tweet.
Peace talks as cover
Afghan officials say Pakistan has also abetted the Taliban鈥檚 use of intra-Afghan peace talks, which began last September but made little progress, to prepare for continued war.
Back in January, for example, Taliban negotiators were late in returning to the Gulf state of Qatar for talks scheduled to resume on the 5th.
鈥淲here were the Taliban?鈥� Ahmad Shuja Jamal, head of international affairs and regional cooperation on Afghanistan鈥檚 National Security Council, asked rhetorically during a webinar this month hosted by the Frontline Club in London.
The answer, he said, came a few days later, when videos from Pakistan showed Taliban leaders 鈥減arading across a line of suicide bombers of the Taliban鈥� and visiting 鈥渨ounded Taliban terrorists鈥� treated in Pakistani hospitals.
Mr. Jamal accused the Taliban of planting explosive devices manufactured with Pakistani-produced ammonium nitrate 鈥渋n people鈥檚 orchards, in people鈥檚 crops, in people鈥檚 abandoned homes and pathways into and out of their villages.鈥�
The solution, he said, is for the U.S. and others to 鈥減ressure Pakistan, so that they actually do play, finally, a constructive role that only they can play in this equation.鈥�
Pakistan, however, despite stated concern about Afghan Taliban victories, appears to have done little to meaningfully knuckle down.
鈥淭here was a big push to mobilize fighters in the last few months, in the [Pakistani] tribal areas and in the Pashtun areas around the south of Afghanistan in Baluchistan,鈥� Carlotta Gall, a New York Times correspondent who covered Afghanistan and Pakistan for more than a decade, said in the webinar.
鈥淲e know there are a lot of bodies coming back, including of Pakistanis,鈥� said Ms. Gall, author of 鈥淭he Wrong Enemy.鈥� The Nangarhar governor鈥檚 office tweeted Sunday, for example, that 39 dead Pakistani fighters were sent home the past two weeks. Videos show funerals of fighters in Pakistan, with white Taliban flags held aloft.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a massive, state-organized campaign, and it鈥檚 been going on for 20 years,鈥� said Ms. Gall, whose book title invokes Richard Holbrooke, the late U.S. special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, who once said, 鈥淲e may be fighting the wrong enemy in the wrong country.鈥�
鈥淧akistan has never given up on its idea to have a client state in Afghanistan,鈥� she said. 鈥淚t hasn鈥檛 changed. It hasn鈥檛 stopped. The Americans knew it all along.鈥�
A colonial power
That has been most clear to Afghans, who have been shocked by the speed and scale of destruction of the current Taliban campaign 鈥� and are suspicious of any claimed Pakistani change of heart.
鈥淓very Afghan now knows that the name used for these invasions is Taliban, but it鈥檚 actually the Pakistani Army in the uniform of the Taliban,鈥� says Orzala Nemat, a Kabul-based analyst.
鈥淧akistan is planning this, has a huge hand in orchestrating what鈥檚 happening. It鈥檚 a very sophisticated offensive,鈥� she says. 鈥淭his time, if the Taliban have a full takeover, the damage ... will spread beyond Afghan borders, to Pakistan, Iran and elsewhere, and everyone should be aware of that.
鈥淲e are not faced with some madrasa-educated, ordinary-village young man,鈥� says Ms. Nemat. 鈥淲e are faced with a colonial power fighting Afghans, again, in the uniform of the Taliban. That is how it should be seen.鈥�
