Why Iran nuclear talks are moving ahead, despite Israeli attack
| LONDON
Even Iran鈥檚 scientists were impressed by the elegant effectiveness of the latest Israeli attack on Iran鈥檚 nuclear program. An explosion in the underground tunnel carrying both primary and backup electricity cables at its Natanz enrichment site last week cut off power to thousands of centrifuge machines as they spun uranium gas at supersonic speeds.
鈥淭he enemy plotted the Natanz attack very beautifully, from the scientific point of view,鈥� admitted Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, the former head of Iran鈥檚 nuclear agency, and survivor of a 2010 Israeli assassination attempt.
The attack came as diplomats in Vienna signaled progress in talks to bring the United States and Iran back into compliance with a landmark nuclear deal, three years after then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from it. Israel rejects that 2015 deal 鈥� and any return to it 鈥� which imposes strict limits on Iran鈥檚 nuclear program in exchange for lifting harsh sanctions.
Why We Wrote This
Retaliate or negotiate? After the bombing at its nuclear enrichment site, Iran seemed to have a tactical choice. Its decision, to do both, indicates a strategic commitment to diplomacy.
The Natanz attack presented Iran with a stark choice: To retaliate, in line with fiery rhetoric that has followed every high-profile incidence of sabotage against Iran鈥檚 nuclear program, nearly all attributed to Israel. Or to negotiate, in favor of a diplomatic solution that could bolster Iran鈥檚 regional standing and lower the risk of war.
Iran鈥檚 choice appears to be to pursue both pathways, simultaneously. It is fighting back by raising uranium enrichment to the unprecedented level of 60% purity 鈥撀爐hree times higher than its previous high point, and technically a short step from the 90% level necessary for fissile material to make an atomic bomb.
And Iran鈥檚 supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while denigrating U.S. diplomatic offers, last week overruled other hard-liners calling for Iran鈥檚 negotiators to 鈥渃ome home鈥� and authorized talks to resurrect the deal to continue.
鈥淭he answer to your evilness,鈥� said President Hassan Rouhani, is the boost in enrichment. 鈥淓ven today, if we wish, we can enrich uranium at 90% purity. But we are not seeking a nuclear bomb,鈥� he said Thursday. 鈥淚f others return to full compliance with the deal ... we will stop 60% and 20% enrichment.鈥�
Iran鈥檚 strategic message
Analysts said that, however much the Israeli attack slowed the Iranian production of enriched uranium, the benefits to Israel would be short-lived.
The Natanz attack 鈥渨as an attempt by Israel to sabotage not just Iran鈥檚 nuclear program but the nuclear talks in Vienna, or at least deprive Iran of its leverage at the table,鈥� says Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.
鈥淏ecause Iran is unable to retaliate in kind [inside Israel] right now, some in Israel could conclude that this was a cost-free blow to Iran鈥檚 nuclear program for Israel,鈥� says Mr. Vaez. 鈥淭he reality is that the strategic message that Iranians are sending with 60% enrichment is that the only thing that curtails Iran鈥檚 nuclear program is a win-win diplomatic outcome. Sanctions and sabotage would only result in Iran further ratcheting up its nuclear program.鈥�
Meanwhile, signs of a modest kinetic reaction include five rockets fired Sunday at an Iraqi military base housing American contractors, a frequent tactic of Iran-backed militias. And an Israeli-owned cargo ship was struck by a missile last Tuesday off the coast of the United Arab Emirates 鈥� the latest in a series of tit-for-tat Iran-Israel attacks on each other鈥檚 ships.
Talks in Vienna resumed Monday and reportedly reached a 鈥渄rafting鈥� stage, despite a lingering dispute over who should move first. President Joe Biden has stated a desire to return to the nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, as a starting point to address issues such as Iran鈥檚 expanding missile capability and the influence of Iran-backed militias. The U.S. insists that Iran take the first steps.
Iran says that, since it was Mr. Trump who departed the deal, the U.S. should act first to remove sanctions. Iran would then reverse its own breaches of the JCPOA by reducing its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, capping enrichment again at 3.67% purity, and ending work on advanced centrifuges.
Iran wants to signal it 鈥渟till has a lot of options for strengthening its hand, and time is not on the U.S. side,鈥� says Mr. Vaez. 鈥淭hat is the most important message they want to send to Washington. If the U.S. drags its feet and refuses to do what the Iranians believe is right 鈥� which is to lift all the sanctions 鈥撀爐he Iranian nuclear program will grow exponentially.鈥�
Exhibit A is, for the first time, the laboratory production of small quantities of 60% enriched uranium 鈥� measured in grams, not kilograms.
Diplomatic process
While decrying the result of the Israeli attack and its implications for Iran鈥檚 security, Alireza Zakani, a hard-line lawmaker, signaled that the cycle of move and countermove is also part of the diplomatic process.
The attack 鈥渄estroyed a tremendous portion鈥� of Iran鈥檚 enrichment capacity, caused lawmakers to 鈥渃ry blood鈥� over the loss of 鈥渢housands鈥� of centrifuges, and is further proof the country has become a 鈥減aradise for spies,鈥� he said.
鈥淭he Natanz sabotage is part and parcel of the negotiations,鈥� he added. The U.S. and Israeli message is, 鈥渋f you refuse to shut down your nuclear program, we will shut it down on our own.鈥�
That message has been sent multiple times, as the decadeslong covert war between Israel and the Islamic Republic has expanded. Israel all but claimed responsibility for the assassination in November of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, one of Iran鈥檚 top nuclear scientists, widely believed to be in charge of a clandestine Iranian weapons program until it was stopped in 2003.
In response to that killing, Iran boosted uranium enrichment to 20% purity.
A previous explosion at Natanz last July did extensive damage to buildings. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has trumpeted an August 2018 Mossad raid on a Tehran warehouse that spirited away an archive of tens of thousands of pages about Iran鈥檚 past nuclear efforts.
In Iran, the Natanz blackout聽sparked聽criticism of the intelligence and security community over 鈥渢he Israel within,鈥� which appears to flourish unchecked. Even the Revolutionary Guard, whose tasks include protecting nuclear sites, came under fire for producing a popular spy thriller TV series called 鈥淕ando鈥� that takes jabs at Mr. Rouhani鈥檚 centrist government 鈥� at the expense, the critics said, of real counter-espionage prowess.
鈥淗ow is it possible that we are never able to identify those infiltrators?鈥� asked the pro-Rouhani Khabar Online news agency. 鈥淲hile we are preoccupied with making 鈥楪ando鈥� and imposing filtering on our internet users, the enemy is staying closer to us than we can imagine.鈥�
An expanding program
Despite the chain of security lapses, Iran鈥檚 nuclear program has expanded, sometimes swiftly.
鈥淲hatever has been done against Iran hasn鈥檛 worked, including blowing up Natanz,鈥� says Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of the Amwaj.media website. Nearly 20 years ago, he notes, Iran 鈥渂egged鈥� the European Union and Americans to permit laboratory enrichment, with just a few cascades of centrifuges. They refused.
And for years, enrichment above 20% purity was considered an Israeli red line likely to trigger an air assault, of the kind Israel launched to stop nuclear programs in Saddam Hussein鈥檚 Iraq and in Syria.
Today Iran is 鈥減ushing to 60%, they are moving towards a clear virtual nuclear capability,鈥� says Mr. Shabani. 鈥淭he reality is, right now in Iran, it鈥檚 only a political decision [preventing Iran] from building a bomb.鈥�
Such a political decision is meant to be reaffirmed at the nuclear talks in Vienna. But even if they fail, the successful attacks inside Iran carry their own lesson.
鈥淭here is no doubt that this program is deeply penetrated by Israeli intelligence,鈥� says Mr. Vaez at the International Crisis Group.
The string of assassinations, cyberattacks, and explosions 鈥渃learly demonstrate that the option for Iran of dashing towards nuclear weapons is nonexistent because ... if Iran ever decides to move in that direction, it will probably be stopped way before it鈥檚 able to achieve critical capacity.鈥�
