海角大神

America鈥檚 nuclear negotiators with Iran听got it all wrong, according to a growing chorus of critics arguing that overreliance on pressure and sanctions may be jeopardizing a diplomatic deal.听

The Obama administration has听implemented听a host of crippling sanctions on Iran听targeting its听central bank and lifeblood oil exports.听The goal has been to pressure Iran听into giving听up its most sensitive nuclear work, which could be a pathway to an atomic bomb.

But a year of high-profile talks between Iran and world powers has yielded little progress. Now a number of senior former US officials and analysts say a White House obsession with the pressure track may be backfiring, and are calling for a听pivot toward听the diplomatic track听to听reestablish听balance.听

鈥淚 was in the [State] Department when they kept talking about the so-called two-track policy, and it was clear the whole thing was nonsense; there never were two tracks,鈥� says John Limbert, the former US deputy assistant secretary of State for Iran听from 2009听to 2010.

鈥淭he sanctions took all the air out of the room. It was 95 percent sanctions, and that was on a good day.鈥�

The US 'knows' sanctions

One reason for the sanctions focus is 鈥渨e know how to do them. It鈥檚 familiar. And to do them, we don鈥檛 have to deal with the Iranians; we deal with the British, the听United Nations, the Russians, the Chinese,鈥� says Ambassador Limbert,听who was also听held captive听in Iran during the 1979-81 hostage crisis,听and speaks fluent Persian.

鈥淲hereas diplomacy with Iran, that鈥檚 hard. Nobody knows how to do that, and every time we鈥檝e tried, we鈥檝e failed. And as soon as we fail we鈥檝e given up and gone back to doing what we know how to do.鈥�

Limbert,听who听now teaches at the US Naval Academy,听is among a growing number of people calling for a recalibration of the American strategy on Iran 鈥� a greater emphasis on diplomacy and real incentives, like substantial sanctions relief 鈥� in exchange for real concessions by Iran.

鈥淚t is time for the administration to make the sweat equity investment in negotiations equal to what it has done on sanctions and the potential to use military force,鈥� Tom Pickering, the former US undersecretary of State for political affairs, said at the launch听last week in Washington听of听,听an independent group of former officials and professionals that seeks to improve official US-Iran ties.听

鈥淔irst and foremost we believe the president needs to make that decision 鈥撎�鈥業 want a deal鈥� 鈥� and instruct his people to get a deal," he said.听

Mr. Pickering and Limbert were among 35 signatories of the report, which included other veteran diplomats and officials like Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter's national security adviser; Ryan Crocker,听former ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq and other trouble spots;听Lee Hamilton, a former congressman and vice chairman of the 9/11 Commission; and former Central Intelligence Agency chief Michael Hayden.

There are signs that message is getting through. Despite a strong desire on Capitol Hill and in Israel for more sanctions against Iran, Secretary of State John Kerry asked Congress last Thursday to hold off: 鈥淲e don鈥檛 need to spin this up at this point in time鈥�. You need to leave us the window to try to work the diplomatic channel,鈥� he said.

Fewer options

The widening bid for better diplomacy听comes听after the latest round of nuclear talks in the Kazakh city of Almaty earlier this month听failed to narrow differences听between Iran and the P5+1 group (the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany).

Calling for 鈥渟trengthening the diplomatic track in order to seize the opportunity created by the pressure track,鈥� The Iran Project notes that while US policies 鈥減ossibly slowed the expansion of Iran鈥檚 nuclear program,鈥� they also 鈥渕ay have narrowed the options for dealing with Iran by hardening the regime鈥檚 resistance to pressure.鈥�

The report states that 鈥渋t seems doubtful that pressure alone will change the decisions of Iran鈥檚 leaders,鈥� though stronger diplomacy 鈥渢hat includes the promise of sanctions relief in exchange for verifiable cooperation鈥� could lead to a deal. Another risk of current policy, warns the report: 鈥淪anctions-related hardships may be sowing the seeds of long-term alienation between the Iranian people and the United States.鈥�

The current P5+1 offer,听which has been seen by 海角大神, calls upon Iran to halt enrichment of uranium to 20 percent purity 鈥撎齱hich is a few technical steps away from bomb-grade of more than 90 percent 鈥� and 鈥渞educe readiness鈥� of a deeply buried enrichment facility by disconnecting and removing key equipment.

After those steps, the P5+1 would provide partial sanctions relief on gold transfers and petrochemical exports, but not on far more painful financial or oil sanctions. Iran says the offer is unbalanced, and wants a more 鈥渞eciprocal鈥� approach.

Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated in February that pressure and sanctions听are akin to the US 鈥減ointing a gun at Iran听and听say[ing]听either negotiate or we will shoot.鈥� In March, Mr. Khamenei said, 鈥渋f the Americans sincerely want鈥� to resolve the nuclear issue 鈥渢hey should stop being hostile towards the Iranian nation in words and in action.鈥�

Both sides in the nuclear negotiations have staked out positions unacceptable to the other. Iran has signaled repeatedly in the past two years a willingness to cap its 20 percent enrichment, but has balked at the low price on offer.

鈥淚 think the answer is probably pretty simple. We鈥檙e going to have to sweeten the offer on sanctions relief,鈥� former US assistant secretary of State听under the George W. Bush administration听and veteran troubleshooter James Dobbins said at the report launch. Sanctions should be suspended, not dropped,听he said,听until Iran also demonstrates it can hold to its side of any bargain.

鈥淚s the level of mistrust so high, that it doesn鈥檛 matter at the end of the day what we offer?鈥� asks Limbert. 鈥淎nything short of a full surrender 鈥� and maybe even that 鈥� the Iranians are going to say, 鈥榃ell, obviously this is some trick鈥�we鈥檙e not sure how you鈥檙e doing it, but we know you are.鈥欌��

The same applies to US suspicions of Iran, adds Limbert: 鈥淭hat鈥檚 exactly the way the two sides operate. This nuclear issue has gotten so invested with manhood [that] neither side feels it can back down.鈥�

Has Obama already failed?

The Iran Project report is听only听the latest critique of White House handling of Iran that raises questions about missed opportunities and even the desire to make a deal.

The Atlantic Council earlier this month called for the US to prepare a road map that clarifies a 鈥渟tep-by-step reciprocal and proportionate plan鈥� to lift sanctions as Iran makes its own moves. 鈥淭o make meaningful concessions, Iran needs to see off-ramps and an endgame,鈥澨�.听

Likewise, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Federation of American Scientists this month determined: 鈥淲ashington鈥檚 overwhelming focus on coercion and military threats听has backed US policymakers into a rhetorical corner.鈥澨�

, published by the International Crisis Group in February, noted how Iran and the West 鈥渧iew the sanctions through very dissimilar prisms.鈥� While the US and Europe count on a 鈥渃ost-benefit analysis鈥� such that Iran will eventually cave in to hardship, 鈥渢he world looks very different from Tehran [where] the one thing considered more perilous than suffering from sanctions is surrendering to them.鈥�

That disconnect has bedeviled the Obama White House, writes former administration official Vali Nasr in a book published this month, 鈥淭he Dispensable Nation.鈥�

鈥淭he dual-track policy only gave Iran a reason to dig in deeper and clutch its nuclear ambitions tighter,鈥� writes Mr. Nasr, who is now dean of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

鈥淚n the end, Obama鈥檚 Iran policy failed. He pushed ahead with sanctions for the same reason Lyndon Johnson kept up the bombing of North Vietnam 鈥� neither could think of anything else to听do," asserts Nasr. "Obama鈥檚听sanctions-heavy approach did not change Iranian behavior; instead it encouraged Iran to accelerate its race to nuclear capability.鈥澨�

Creating a solution may require a change in approach, say the authors of The Iran Project report.

鈥淲e have to do something the Iranians aren鈥檛 expecting, that gets them to stop and say, 鈥榃ait a minute鈥� maybe the Americans are serious,鈥欌�� said James Walsh, a nonproliferation expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, at the report launch.

鈥淭he only way this hard stuff will get done is if the president of the United States makes it his issue,鈥� added Mr. Walsh. 鈥淎bsent that, we鈥檙e going to continue to do what we鈥檝e done over and over again, only it will get worse.鈥�