海角大神

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator,听Saeed Jalili,听arrived in聽Moscow聽today for critical talks with world powers, flying economy class with his team on聽Russia's state airline,听Aeroflot.

Mr. Jalili projects a 鈥渃ommon man鈥� image, but upon his shoulders may rest the high-stakes result of the third round of nuclear talks, which begins tomorrow in Moscow.

Expectations are low that Iran and the P5+1 group (the聽United States, Russia,听China,听Britain,听France, and聽Germany) can strike a deal that will at once permanently prevent any Iranian push for an atomic bomb and preserve for Iran most of its advanced nuclear program.

Hopes raised in聽Istanbul, Turkey,听in April were set back in聽Baghdad聽in May, when the P5+1 initial proposal went much further than Iran expected. It required Iran to suspend all uranium enrichment and give up entirely on higher-level enrichment, with no immediate easing of tough economic sanctions.

Since then, acrimonious exchanges and demands by politicians opposed to compromise in both the US and Iran, have made a breakthrough here even less likely.

Iranian diplomats charge that the P5+1 offer violated the framework agreed in Istanbul of a reciprocal, step-by-step exchange of concessions. P5+1 officials counter that Iran must first agree to take "concrete" action in Moscow.

But analysts say Iran's perception that it is being forced to accept a lopsided offer is unacceptable to the psychology of its leadership 鈥� and risks a collapse of the talks that could lead to military strikes by聽Israel聽or the US.

"You have this classic case of asymmetry," says John Limbert, a veteran diplomat who was US deputy assistant secretary of State for Iran until 2010.

"We're talking about one thing, all these legal and technical issues; and the Iranians are talking about their place in the world, their rights, their sovereignty," says Mr. Limbert. "We just talk past each other. And both sides come away saying, 'They are not listening to us.'"

European Union foreign policy chief聽Catherine Ashton聽represents the P5+1 at the table. US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman is also there with other senior P5+1 officials.

For any deal to stick, both sides need to be able to sell it at home聽as their own victory, says Limbert, a Persian speaker who was one of聽the US hostages held in Iran from 1979 to 1981, and author of聽"Negotiating with Iran."
"We're stuck in this pattern we've been in so long of moralizing,听sermonizing," says Limbert. The result can be little recognition of聽Iran's need, also, to declare success: "Somehow it has to be sold [in聽Iran] as, 'We protected our rights, we protected our dignity, we聽didn't give in. ' "

Enrichment an 'inalienable right'

That impulse was clear when Jalili briefed Iran's parliament last聽week. The Moscow talks would proceed under the framework of the聽Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which describes an聽"inalienable right" of nations to produce nuclear energy.

There was "no prohibition" of "any kind of enrichment for peaceful聽purposes," Jalili told the chamber. "It's possible that we may need聽higher or lower enrichment for other peaceful applications. This is聽our right, and we must be able to exercise this right."

Several United Nations Security Council resolutions require Iran to suspend all聽enrichment, however, until it resolves questions about past聽weapons-related work.

Iranian officials have stated a readiness to deal on their 20 percent聽enriched uranium, which is a few technical steps from weapons grade of聽more than 90 percent.

But giving up all enrichment, they say, will not happen. And for any聽deal, Iran expects something it values in return, like sanctions聽relief.

"If trust helped in Istanbul ... in Moscow on Monday we need聽reciprocity," wrote former Iranian nuclear negotiator Hossein聽Mousavian, and Tehran-based analyst Mohammad Ali Shabani, in the聽Guardian on Friday. "All sides need to be courageous enough to聽recognize a fair exchange is a central tenet of dialogue."

The P5+1 proposal

The P5+1 proposal includes stopping 20 percent enrichment and shutting聽down a deeply buried enrichment site where it happens at Fordow, which聽is currently under safeguard by UN nuclear inspectors but beyond easy聽reach of Israeli or US attack.

"The offer was deliberately ungenerous 鈥� some would say unrealistic"聽and probably an opening bid, the International Crisis Group (ICG)聽noted in a report last Friday.

A US official told ICG that "the burden of proof is on the Iranians.聽They are the ones running an illicit nuclear program. We will engage聽in a step-by-step process, but our actions are not necessarily going聽to be equivalent to theirs."聽P5+1 diplomats frequently cite increasingly painful sanctions 鈥� with聽further measures against Iran's central bank, and a European oil聽embargo due at the end of this month 鈥� as the reason Iran is at the聽table. Iran denies that linkage.

"History shows that pushing Iran into a corner will backfire," says聽Kayhan Barzegar, director of the Institute for Middle East Strategic聽Studies in Tehran. The strategically important and widely supported聽nature of Iran's nuclear program means Iran can "easily resist against聽increased pressures."

"A win-win solution is inevitable. The other option is a lose-lose聽situation ... there is no [acceptable] win-lose [result] in this聽story," says Mr. 聽Barzegar.

Iran says it takes the P5+1 strategy that hardened considerably聽between the Istanbul and Baghdad talks as a red flag about Western聽seriousness to make a deal.

Barzegar says this hardening has stirred up 鈥渄istrust among Iranian聽decisionmakers鈥� and "strengthen[ed] the hard-line view that Iran is聽only wasting its time [with talks] and that the main goal of the West聽is to bring the [nuclear] program to a complete halt."聽

Indeed, Iran's parliament speaker Ali Larijani said last week that the聽negotiating team "has no right to show leniency," and that Iran would聽determine its own enrichment levels 鈥� an indirect reference to 20聽percent, according to Mehr News Agency.

Legislators weigh in

Parliament expected negotiators in Moscow to "consolidate what the聽Iranian nation has gained after years," said Mr. Larijani.

Senators in Washington likewise sought to shape the talks, with nearly聽half sending a letter to President Obama on Friday demanding an聽"absolute minimum" of immediate concessions by Iran in Moscow 鈥撀爃alting 20 percent enrichment, and closing Fordow 鈥� if talks were to聽continue.

The 44 senators asked Mr. Obama not to ease sanctions, which needed to聽be "unremitting and crippling," and to boost pressure on Iran by聽"making clear that a credible military option exists."

"The idea of what we should be getting, and what we should be giving,听on both sides, is completely at odds," says Eskandar聽Sadeghi-Boroujerdi, a doctoral candidate at Oxford and lead writer of聽a recent Oxford Research Group study on breaking the nuclear deadlock.

Increasing sanctions may have helped bring Iran to the table, but they聽can also become a trap, he says.

"Once you get into this frame of mind, where you have to have聽sanctions and they keep piling up, it's very difficult to reverse it,"聽says Mr. Sadeghi-Boroujerdi.