Why Russia鈥檚 troop surge near Ukraine may really be a message to the West
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Fred Weir Special correspondent
| Moscow
War clouds are gathering on the Russia-Ukraine border, as Moscow assembles a major force within striking distance of Kyiv for the second time this year.
The buildup of 100,000 troops and heavy equipment in Russia鈥檚 western military sector, near Ukraine, has raised the fears of that an invasion is imminent.
Analysts say the threat is real and seems unlikely to be drawn down, as happened following what looks like , after the Biden administration agreed to a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin and scaled back planned naval exercises in the Black Sea.
Why We Wrote This
Russia鈥檚 troop buildup on Ukraine鈥檚 border has many in the West worried about invasion. But what鈥檚 really going on appears to be not about war, but about differing views and goals for NATO.
But war is not Russia鈥檚 goal, they add. Such a conflict would be prohibitively costly and intensely unpopular in Russia, which is home to the world鈥檚 biggest Ukrainian diaspora and where many millions have family and close friends in Ukraine.
Rather, the buildup is meant to back up clear demands that Mr. Putin has delivered to Ukraine and the West. Analysts say that what Russia wants are permanent guarantees that countries like Ukraine and other former Soviet states will not join NATO and will remain neutral 鈥� as Finland was during the Cold War 鈥� as a new basis for regional stability. The aim of the troop deployments is to concentrate minds in Kyiv and the West about Moscow鈥檚 concerns, they say.
鈥淧utin said that 鈥榯ension is good,鈥� meaning that our Western counterparts should be kept alarmed, only then will they take Russia鈥檚 interests into account,鈥� says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a leading Moscow-based foreign policy journal. 鈥淚t looks like Putin wants to open a new chapter, to finally get the perception on the Western side that NATO enlargement is dead.鈥�
Russian security
In a speech to the Russian foreign ministry , Mr. Putin slammed the West for dismissing Russia鈥檚 鈥渞ed lines鈥� concerning Ukraine, and said that NATO鈥檚 arming and military integration with Ukraine must end. He complained that two decades of NATO expansion into the region has brought a major threat to Russia鈥檚 doorstep, and that Moscow will not tolerate Ukraine鈥檚 potential membership in what it sees as a hostile military alliance.
鈥淚t is imperative to push for serious long-term guarantees that ensure Russia鈥檚 security in this area, because Russia cannot constantly be thinking about what could happen there tomorrow,鈥� Mr. Putin said.
Though Ukraine鈥檚 NATO application has been temporarily shelved, the alliance has consistently maintained . For the Kremlin, which has seen all the Soviet Union鈥檚 former Warsaw Pact allies and the three ex-Soviet Baltic States already integrated into the alliance, the prospect of NATO forces only a three-day march from Moscow was never going to be acceptable, says Mr. Lukyanov.
鈥淲estern leaders have believed for decades that every country has the right to join NATO, and NATO should accept them without taking into account the strategic implications,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 something new in history, it鈥檚 totally opposed to classical strategic thinking, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Western leaders embraced this idea that NATO should just expand, that it was somehow the right thing to do, and that no one should oppose that. It鈥檚 an ideological belief, not one based on serious strategic or military calculations.
鈥淲hen NATO enlargement began, back in the 鈥�90s, no one expected Russia to recover as quickly as it has. But Russia is back, it is deeply concerned about its strategic neighborhood, and it needs to make clear that Ukraine must not join NATO. Putin鈥檚 point is that we need Western leaders to take that seriously, and not just in words.鈥�
Loggerheads between Moscow and Kyiv
Part of Mr. Putin鈥檚 frustration may be that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was elected largely on promises to bring peace to war-weary Ukraine, has made no headway in that area. Instead, Mr. Zelenskyy has appealed to the West to rapidly admit Ukraine into NATO and cancel Russia鈥檚 controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline, demanded that the Minsk 2 peace accords be revised, and taken other positions that infuriate Moscow.
鈥淩ussia is disillusioned with Zelenskyy, and sees no hope any longer that he might start a dialogue about ending the conflict,鈥� says Andrei Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council, which is affiliated with the foreign ministry. 鈥淭he mood in Moscow is that there is no point in talking with Kyiv, and we need to sort this out with Washington.鈥�
The response in Kyiv seems surprisingly calm, perhaps thanks to the sense of permanent crisis since the Maidan revolution overthrew a Russia-friendly president and brought a pro-Western government to power in early 2014. That triggered Russia鈥檚 annexation of the mostly Russian-populated Crimean Peninsula and stimulated Russian-backed rebels in Ukraine鈥檚 east to rise against Kyiv. The resulting war, now grinding into its eighth year, has killed at least 14,000 people.
鈥淚t鈥檚 hard to measure the real threat,鈥� says Nikolai Sungurovsky, a military expert at the independent Razumkov Centre in Kyiv. 鈥淭he military threat is always there. Putin is trying to demonstrate that there can be no security solutions in Europe without Russia, but he is not willing to make any concessions about what concerns Ukraine.鈥�
Vadim Karasyov, director of the independent Institute of Global Strategies in Kyiv, says, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 see any direct threat of military invasion right now. Russian leaders might have their firm point of view, but they are not fools.鈥�
No appetite for war in Russia
Though a low-level war has been going on for years, the Kremlin has largely kept its own involvement limited and mostly secret from the Russian people. Opinion polls in both countries consistently show that the populations have warm feelings toward each other, even if they hold each others鈥� leaders in low regard.
A February 2021 survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) found that 41% of Ukrainians had positive feelings toward Russia, while 42% felt negative. A similar poll conducted by the independent Levada Center in Moscow found that 54% of Russians felt positive toward Ukraine, compared with 31% who did not.
鈥淚 often say that the attitude of Ukrainians toward Russians and Russia is one of unrequited love,鈥� says Vladimir Paniotto, director of KIIS. 鈥淭hat doesn鈥檛 apply to Russian leaders, toward whom only 12% of Ukrainians have a positive attitude, while 76% feel negatively. Bear in mind that about half of Ukrainians have relatives in Russia, so they do mentally separate the population from the government.鈥�
A similar reality exists in Russia, which has about 3 million Ukrainians 鈥� including about 1 million refugees from the war 鈥� and incalculably deep, long-standing, and intricate relations between people.
鈥淭his situation is so painful, because so many of us have friends and relatives in Ukraine,鈥� says Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a leading sociologist in Russia. 鈥淚, for one, have a Ukrainian husband, and regular contacts with his relatives in Ukraine. We are sick and tired of all these political tensions. We don鈥檛 trust our own politicians, and we certainly don鈥檛 want a war that arises out of all the lies being told on both sides. I don鈥檛 want to believe in a war. It would be incredibly unpopular with the Russian people.鈥�
Mr. Kortunov agrees that Mr. Putin is playing a dangerous game by building up forces and flirting with military conflict to try and compel the West to discuss changes in Europe鈥檚 security order. But, like most Russians, he says actual open war with Ukraine is unthinkable.
鈥淵ou have to ask yourself: Are Vladimir Putin and his team rational people? If you assume that they are 鈥� and, I assure you, yes they are 鈥� then we must acknowledge that Putin has no intention of starting a major war in the heart of Europe. Even if Russia were to win, the collateral damage would be immense, the costs too high to bear, and it would end any hope of reconciling with the West for a long time to come. Putin is concerned with his legacy, and he really wants to find some resolution of the Ukraine issue, but he is not going to start a war.鈥�
