Why a boring Biden-Putin summit would be just fine by Russia
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Fred Weir Special correspondent
| Moscow
Russia broke out of lockdown earlier this month to stage , billed as the first big international forum of its kind in the post-pandemic era.
The event featured thousands of vaccinated and COVID-19-tested guests, including 200 Americans and the heads of most major Russian businesses and government ministries. In a rare in-person 聽spoke at great length about Russia鈥檚 economic and political resilience despite years of being buffeted by sanctions, plunging oil prices, and pandemic setbacks. The subtext throughout was that Russia is still here and recovering from the blows, it will not bow to pressure, and it鈥檚 open for business and ready to cooperate in building a new, post-pandemic global order.
Mr. Putin had remarkably little to say about his imminent summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in Geneva on Wednesday, other than to rattle off a list of what Russia considers strategic global concerns.聽But the potential of the meeting to either arrest or accelerate the decline in what the Kremlin still regards as Russia鈥檚 most important bilateral relationship was clearly on everyone鈥檚 minds.
Why We Wrote This
Russia and the United States are at a nadir in their relations. Russians hope that Wednesday鈥檚 summit between the countries鈥� leaders will establish a baseline understanding of each other鈥檚 red lines.
In Moscow there is a widespread sense of frustration over the acrimonious downward spiral that has smothered what was once a fairly robust dialogue, gutted the Cold War-era system of arms control treaties, and left the embassies of both countries without ambassadors and severely understaffed thanks to tit-for-tat expulsions. The vacuum has been filled by an escalating war of words and strong accusations, some well grounded, others more speculative.
That this summit is happening at all is a profoundly hopeful sign. Mr. Biden suggested it in an April phone conversation with Mr. Putin, after relations arguably reached the lowest point in decades聽when the U.S. president said he thought that the Kremlin leader is a 鈥渒iller鈥� and both sides withdrew their ambassadors for extended consultations.
鈥淥ur best hope is that this ... will look boring鈥�
In the days before the summit, both leaders have been tamping down expectations and insisting to their domestic constituencies that the other side will definitely get an earful about matters of principle. For Mr. Biden that means human rights and Russia鈥檚 malign behavior abroad. Mr. Putin has been telling domestic audiences that he will make clear that Russia has certain red lines that must not be crossed, including the expansion of NATO to neighboring countries like Ukraine and Georgia.
Most of all, no one wants a repeat of the tumultuous summit between Mr. Putin and then-President Donald Trump in Helsinki three years ago, which turned into a media circus, fueled speculation in the United States that Mr. Trump might be a 鈥淜remlin stooge,鈥� and left many Russians scratching their heads over Mr. Trump鈥檚 odd behavior.
鈥淭here are a lot of emotions in play, people have all kinds of conflicting expectations, and it鈥檚 not likely anyone will feel satisfied. But our best hope is that this Biden-Putin meeting will look boring鈥� to the watching media and commentariat, says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a Moscow-based foreign policy journal.
鈥淣obody should expect any breakthroughs or grand bargains. In my view the summit will be successful if we start shaping the framework for a new confrontation. Until now we鈥檝e had a confrontation that was chaotic and unpredictable, one that was very emotional and seemed to us driven more by American domestic politics than foreign policy concerns,鈥� he says.
鈥淚t鈥檚 clear that Biden and Putin don鈥檛 like each other. But Biden is a classic politician, and Putin is quite practical too. If they can just come away from the meeting with a declaration that they take joint responsibility for strategic stability, for setting up a process in which experts will meet and working groups will develop a format to go forward with the big problems that can be managed, like arms control, that will be quite enough to change the whole tenor of the relationship.鈥�
Russian experts concede that the old Cold War network of bilateral arms control treaties is largely outdated and that Mr. Biden鈥檚 decision to extend the last of them, New START, for five years should be seen as a jumping-off point to develop new approaches to a far more complex and dangerous global strategic environment. That includes militarization in space, cybersecurity, missile defense, and the emergence of several new nuclear-armed countries that will need to be brought into some new multilateral arms control process.
Concern in Kyiv
But a lot of people who won鈥檛 be at that table in Geneva have their own stakes in the outcome. They will be scrutinizing the body language and parsing the leaders鈥� words intensively.
In Ukraine, some already perceive a U.S. betrayal of their interests. Mr. Biden waived sanctions against the Russian company building the country's controversial Nord Stream 2, a project that Ukraine strongly opposes. And he also made clear 鈥� 鈥� that Ukraine will not be receiving a much sought-after Membership Action Plan to join NATO at the alliance鈥檚 summit in Brussels this week.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has probably felt like a football in U.S. domestic politics for some time, publicly expressed his bitterness over the Nord Stream 2 decision. The new Russian pipeline will bypass Ukraine, depriving it of about $3 billion in annual transit fees, and giving Russia a free hand to cut off supplies.
Mr. Zelenskyy said, 鈥淭his is a weapon, a real weapon ... in the hands of the Russian Federation. It is not very understandable ... that the bullets to this weapon can possibly be provided by such a great country as the United States.鈥�
Vadim Karasyov, head of the Institute of Global Strategies in Kyiv, says there is deep alarm and concern in Ukraine鈥檚 government about what Mr. Biden and Mr. Putin might decide about Ukraine behind closed doors. 鈥淭here is an impression that economic and trade relations with Russia matter more for the West than solidarity with Ukraine. There鈥檚 a feeling that the West is concerned with its own problems, and is tired of Ukraine.鈥�
Divisions in the Russian public
Another heavily invested group is Russia鈥檚 beleaguered opposition and human rights community, which is currently enduring the toughest police crackdown of the post-Soviet period. Traditionally Russian dissidents hope that U.S. leaders will champion their cause and deliver that concern straight to the Kremlin leader鈥檚 ear. Mr. Biden has promised to do that.
But some of them say they have few expectations that Mr. Biden will do anything to ease their conditions. Andrei Prokudin, a campaigner for imprisoned anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny in the central Russian city of Tver, says today鈥檚 Russia is not very susceptible to outside pressure.
鈥淢aybe Biden will say some formal words, express his concern, and that will be it. There won鈥檛 be any serious action, and nothing is likely to change inside Russia,鈥� he says.
And then there is the Russian public. A by the independent Levada Center finds that Russians are almost evenly divided in their attitude toward the U.S., with 40% taking a 鈥減ositive鈥� view of the country and 42% saying they feel 鈥渘egative鈥� about it.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not Soviet times anymore, there are no ideological differences, and a lot of Russians just can鈥檛 understand why the U.S. is still hostile towards us,鈥� says Mikhail Chernysh, a researcher at the official Institute of Sociology in Moscow. 鈥淢any people feel that the situation is abnormal and the antagonistic American attitude is not justified.
鈥淔or most people I think it would be enough if the two leaders meet in Geneva, show that they are capable of having amiable relations and that they accept each other, and declare some plan to hold future contacts.鈥�
