海角大神

From the very start of the American-led invasion of Afghanistan almost 19 years ago, Russian experts were shaking their heads and warning that it would not turn out well.

However, the Kremlin warmly welcomed the occupation. It provided intelligence and logistical support, and repeatedly urged NATO to stay and 鈥渇inish the job鈥� of defeating the Taliban. Moscow鈥檚 main concern, then and now, was that the victory of extreme Islamist forces in Afghanistan would promote instability and insurrection in the vulnerable former Soviet states of central Asia, as it had prior to the U.S. intervention in 2001.

In the past few years, as it became clear that the United States intends to get out of Afghanistan, Russian attention has shifted to efforts to ensure that the more moderate, nationalist factions of the Taliban prevail over the group鈥檚 radical Islamist wing and the insurgents linked to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State group. Moscow has indirectly reached out to the Taliban in open efforts to nudge the peace process . And Russian experts agree that Russian intelligence may also have forged more confidential links with Taliban leaders.

But the accusation that a Russian GRU military intelligence unit has been for killing American soldiers has blindsided official Moscow. And even the Kremlin鈥檚 critics in the expert community now complain that U.S. intelligence about Russia has become completely detached from reality. Instead, they say it serves only to fuel what they describe as a political civil war between President Donald Trump and his opponents in Washington.

鈥淚t is not in Russia鈥檚 interest to see a rapid U.S. withdrawal,鈥� says Andrei Kortunov, director of the Russian International Affairs Council, which is affiliated with the Foreign Ministry, 鈥渟ince that would increase the threat of extremists coming to power in Kabul.鈥�

Alexander Sekretarev/AP/File

Russia has firsthand experience with the dangers of Afghanistan, thanks to the Soviet Union's long, grinding war there in the 1980s against the mujahideen, at whom the Soviet soldiers shown are firing in April 1988. That makes Russians wary about the U.S. leaving the region too quickly.

鈥淪omething that counterproductive鈥�

Russia has been involved in Afghanistan since the czars jostled for influence 鈥� sometimes violently 鈥� with the British Empire amid the forbidding Hindu Kush in a long 19th-century competition that has been memorialized as 鈥�.鈥� 聽 聽聽

More recently, the Soviet Union quite literally broke apart after a costly and futile military effort to tame Afghanistan in the 1980s. In its nine-year intervention, the USSR lost 15,000 troops in battle against the mujahideen, forerunners of today鈥檚 Taliban, who had received $20 billion in U.S. assistance. That disastrous experience left Russian public opinion deeply averse to any future involvement in the country.

鈥淯nlike the U.S., we have to live in this neighborhood, and we are deeply concerned about what comes next in Afghanistan,鈥� says Mr. Kortunov. That鈥檚 why he says the bounty story makes 鈥渘o sense at all鈥� in terms of Russian concerns 鈥� hastening a U.S. retreat from the region increases the chance of a return to the bad old days in Afghanistan.

鈥淥f course you can never underestimate the intelligence of Russian secret services, and some of the things they do. But it鈥檚 awfully hard to see them coming up with something that counterproductive,鈥� he says.

Alexander Golts, an independent security expert and Kremlin critic who is presently at Uppsala University in Sweden, is even more scathing.

鈥淔or most of my life I have assumed that if something appears in the U.S. media, it is certainly a strongly reported story and probably true. Lately, I have my doubts,鈥� Mr. Golts says. 鈥淚 understand that in U.S. eyes, Russia is an evil-doer. But I know that people who work in Russian military intelligence are rational actors. I fail to find any reasonable motivation Russia could possibly have to kill American soldiers 鈥� and at such a high price, may I add cynically?鈥�

鈥淥ur problem鈥�

The Kremlin has labeled the story 鈥溾�� and President Vladimir Putin鈥檚 special envoy on Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, fired back this week with .

鈥淭hose wonderful U.S. intelligence officers, who accuse us of different things, are involved in drug trafficking. Their planes from Kandahar, from Bagram [Airfield near Kabul] are flying wherever they want to 鈥� to Germany, to Romania 鈥� without any inspections,鈥� he said. 鈥淓very citizen of Kabul will tell you that. Everyone is ready to talk about that.鈥�

The explosion of poppy production and heroin export since NATO occupied Afghanistan remains a major sore point for Russia.

鈥淥piates from Afghanistan are a huge problem for Russia,鈥� says Mr. Kortunov. 鈥淭hey have killed more Russians than the Soviet war in Afghanistan ever did.鈥�

Some Western outlets that Russian intelligence may be hunting American troops as payback for the CIA鈥檚 support for the Afghan mujahideen who defeated the USSR in the 1980s.

But 鈥渢he Soviet experience in Afghanistan is more than 30 years old,鈥� says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a Moscow foreign-policy journal. 鈥淣obody associated with that is in power today, and Russia isn鈥檛 even the same country. Moscow backed the U.S. when they went into Afghanistan, and they鈥檝e been there for almost 20 years. Why on earth would anyone go looking for revenge now?鈥�

Vladimir Sotnikov, an expert with the Institute of Oriental Studies of聽the Russian Academy of Sciences聽in Moscow, says that Russia is consulting with other countries in the region, including China, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, and India, to try to find ways to manage what is now seen as an inevitable U.S. withdrawal.

鈥淭he biggest nightmare is that Afghanistan becomes a 鈥榝ailed state鈥� again, with dangerous repercussions all over the region,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e have no interest in aggravating the situation, or hastening U.S. departure. Afghanistan is going to be our problem long after the U.S. has left.鈥�