Worse than the Cold War? US-Russia relations hit new low.
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Fred Weir Special correspondent
| Moscow
Russia鈥檚 relations with the West, and the United States in particular, appear to be plumbing depths of acrimony and mutual misunderstanding unseen even during the original Cold War.
After years of deteriorating relations, sanctions, tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions, and an escalating 鈥渋nformation war,鈥� some in Moscow are asking if there even is any point in seeking renewed dialogue with the U.S., if only out of concern that more talking might just make things worse.
Events have cascaded over the past month. Russia鈥檚 treatment of imprisoned dissident Alexei Navalny, who has been sent to a prison hospital amid reports of failing health, underlines the sharp perceived differences between Russia and the West over matters of human rights. Meanwhile, a Russian military buildup near Ukraine has illustrated that the conflict in the Donbass region might explode at any time, possibly even dragging Russia and NATO into direct confrontation.
Why We Wrote This
With its relations with Washington at a nadir, Russia is eyeing a more pragmatic, if adversarial, relationship with the U.S. in the hopes of getting the respect it desires.
President Joe Biden surprised the Kremlin by proposing a 鈥減ersonal summit鈥� to discuss the growing list of U.S.-Russia disagreements in last week. He later spoke of the need for 鈥渄isengagement鈥� in the escalating tensions around Ukraine, and postponed a planned visit of two U.S. warships to Russia-adjacent waters in the Black Sea.
But days later he also imposed a package of tough sanctions against Russia, for its alleged SolarWinds hacking and interference in the 2020 U.S. presidential elections, infuriating Moscow and drawing threats of retaliation. Last month, after Mr. Biden agreed with a journalist鈥檚 intimation that Mr. Putin is a 鈥渒iller,鈥� the Kremlin ordered Russia鈥檚 ambassador to the U.S. to return home for intensive consultations, an almost unprecedented peacetime move. Over the weekend, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov suggested that the acting U.S. ambassador to Moscow, John Sullivan, should likewise go back to Washington for a spell. On Tuesday, Mr. Sullivan do just that this week.
And there is a growing sense in Moscow that the downward spiral of East-West ties has reached a point of no return, and that Russia should consider abandoning hopes of reconciliation with the West and seek permanent alternatives: perhaps in an intensified compact with China, and targeted relationships with countries of Europe and other regions that are willing to do business with Moscow.
鈥淭hings are at rock bottom. This may not be structurally a cold war in the way the old one was, but mentally, in terms of atmosphere, it鈥檚 even worse,鈥� says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a Moscow-based foreign policy journal. 鈥淭he fact that Biden offered a summit meeting would have sounded a hopeful note anytime in the past. Now, nobody can be sure of that. A hypothetical Putin-Biden meeting might not prove to be a path to better relations, but just the opposite. It could just become a shouting match that would bring a hardening of differences, and make relations look like even more of a dead end.鈥�
Room for discussion
Foreign policy experts agree that there is a long list of practical issues that could benefit from purposeful high-level discussion. With the U.S. preparing to finally exit Afghanistan, some coordination with regional countries, including Russia and its Central Asian allies, might make the transition easier for everyone. One of Mr. Biden鈥檚 first acts in office was to extend the New START arms control agreement, which the Trump administration had been threatening to abandon, but the former paradigm of strategic stability remains in tatters and requires urgent attention, experts say.
鈥淚f you are looking for opportunities to make the world a safer place through reason and compromise, there are quite a few,鈥� says Andrey Kortunov, director of the Russian International Affairs Council, which is affiliated with the Foreign Ministry. 鈥淭here are also some areas where the best we could do is agree to disagree, such as Ukraine and human rights issues.鈥�
The plight of Mr. Navalny, which has evoked so much outrage in the West, seems unlikely to provide leverage in dealing with the Kremlin because 鈥� as Western moral authority fades 鈥� Russian public opinion appears indifferent, or even in agreement with its government鈥檚 actions. Recent surveys in Moscow, Russia鈥檚 only independent pollster, found that fewer than a fifth of Russians approve of Mr. Navalny鈥檚 activities, while well over half disapprove. An April poll found that while 29% of Russians consider Mr. Navalny鈥檚 imprisonment unfair, 48% think it is fair.
Tensions around the Russian-backed rebel republics in eastern Ukraine have been much severer than usual, with a spike in violent incidents on the front line, a demonstrative Russian military buildup near the borders, and strong U.S. and NATO affirmations of support for Kyiv. The Russian narrative claims that Ukrainian President Volodymyr聽Zelenskiy triggered the crisis a month ago by that makes retaking the Russian-annexed territory of Crimea official Ukrainian state policy. Mr.聽Zelenskiy has also appealed to the U.S. and Europe to expedite Ukraine鈥檚 membership in NATO, which Russia has long described as a 鈥渞ed line鈥� that would lead to war.
But Russian leaders, who have been at pains to deny any direct involvement in Ukraine鈥檚 war for the past seven years, now say openly that they will fight to defend the two rebel republics. Top Kremlin official Dmitry Kozak even , it could be 鈥渢he beginning of the end鈥� for Ukraine.
鈥淭his is a very desperate situation,鈥� says Vadim Karasyov, director of the independent Institute of Global Strategies in Kyiv. 鈥淲e know the West is not going to help Ukraine militarily if it comes to war. So we need to find some kind of workable compromises, not more pretexts for war.鈥�
Time to turn eastward?
In this increasingly vexed atmosphere, the Russians appear to be saying there is no point in Mr. Putin and Mr. Biden meeting unless an agenda has been prepared well in advance, setting out a few achievable goals and leaving aside areas where there can be no agreement.
鈥淩ussia isn鈥檛 going to take part in another circus like we had with Trump in Helsinki in 2018,鈥� says Sergei Markedonov, an expert with MGIMO University in Moscow. 鈥淲hat is needed is a deeper dialogue. That could begin if we had a real old-fashioned summit between Biden and Putin, one that has been calculated to yield at least some positive results. We need to find a modus vivendi going forward, and the present course is not leading there.鈥�
Alternatively, Russia may turn away from any hopes of even pragmatic rapprochement with the West, experts warn.
Mr. Lukyanov, who maintains close contact with his Chinese counterparts, says they felt blindsided at a summit with U.S. foreign policy chiefs in Alaska last month, when what they expected to be a practical discussion of how to overcome the acrimonious Trump-era legacy in their relations turned into what they saw as a U.S. lecture about how China needs to obey the 鈥渞ules-based鈥� international order.
鈥淚t was the Chinese, in the past, who were very cautious about participating鈥� in anything that looked like an anti-Western alliance, says Mr. Lukyanov. 鈥淲e are hearing a new tone from them now. Now our growing relationship with China isn鈥檛 just about compensating for a lack of relations with the U.S. It鈥檚 about the need to build up a group of countries that will resist the U.S., aimed at containing U.S. activities and policies that are harmful to our two countries.鈥�
