Why Brexit compromise hasn鈥檛 defused political tensions in Britain
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| London
Two years after Britain voted in a highly charged referendum to leave the European Union, its government this week agreed to a draft treaty with the EU to make that choice happen. But the deal has still not resolved deep divisions here over what Brexit could, or should mean.
This week鈥檚 political chaos in London, replete with ministerial resignations, has exposed the tensions between full-throated calls for unfettered British sovereignty and the reality of Britain鈥檚 economic dependence on the EU, which is its closest and largest trading partner.
On Wednesday, as Theresa May urged her reluctant cabinet to back the agreement, scores of noisy protesters gathered near , the Georgian townhouse that is the seat of executive power and a symbol of Britain鈥檚 historic reach across the globe.
Why We Wrote This
Reactions to Theresa May鈥檚 deal on Brexit, which sought to balance national sovereignty and economic interdependence, raise the question of whether that鈥檚 even possible in today鈥檚 Britain.
Ms. May鈥檚 half-in, half-out Brexit is designed to blunt Brexit鈥檚 economic blow to Britain. But that鈥檚 not what Sarah Mayall, holding aloft a white placard reading 鈥淟eave Means Leave,鈥 says she wanted in 2016 when she ticked the box to leave the EU. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not an economic goal. It鈥檚 a sovereignty goal,鈥 she says.
To Ms. Mayall, the UK-EU agreement is a betrayal. She is appalled that it would leave Britain in a transitional customs union with the EU after its formal exit from the union next March. That is designed to avoid a rupture in cross-border trade and a crash in business confidence, but it will prevent London from negotiating its own sovereign trade deals with the US and other major economies.
The question of sovereignty, and where Britain stands in relation to the rest of Europe, casts a long shadow in this proud island nation. The way that Britain has ceded legal and regulatory powers to the EU in return for access to the world鈥檚 largest trading bloc has long rankled some. But a rising tide of prosperity dampened much of the criticism until the 2008-09 recession unleashed a populist wave that found its target in EU membership and European immigration.
Squaring the circle
Now Ms. May, who has a slim majority in parliament, is struggling to strike a balance between a return of British sovereignty and defending British prosperity. But the compromise accord she presented to parliament on Thursday is unlikely to square this circle, says Helen Thompson, a professor of political economy at Cambridge University.
鈥淭he difficulty we鈥檙e now in goes back to the difficulty when Britain joined [in 1973]. It鈥檚 very difficult to deal with a constitutional question,鈥 she says.
A strong current of euroskepticism courses through May鈥檚 center-right Conservative Party. For decades, anti-EU politicians argued that Britain should leave the Union and reassert its national sovereignty, even if less trade with the EU made Britain poorer. In recent years, however, this argument for democratic control has been embellished with another claim, that Britain could strike better trade deals outside the EU, and grow richer.
MP鈥檚 who 鈥渟aw this as a governance issue as much as anything else鈥 have been superseded by 鈥渁 kind of Conservative euroskeptic who puts equal weight on trade,鈥 says Ms. Thompson.
As they campaigned for the 2016 referendum, anti-EU politicians knew they couldn鈥檛 rely just on the minority of voters who prized sovereignty over the benefits of trade integration.
So they made attractive promises. One of the top reasons to vote 鈥淟eave鈥, they claimed in campaign literature, was that 鈥淲e'll be free to trade with the whole world.鈥 We'll be free to seize new opportunities, which means more jobs.鈥
This political messaging sowed the seeds of the current impasse over an orderly EU exit, says Alex White, a partner at Flint Global, a financial advisory firm. 鈥淭o win a referendum they had to win different constituencies, and they had to make an economic case,鈥 he says.
鈥淚 think it was always inevitable.... It was going to be very difficult to meet the demands of all these different [political] tribes.鈥
鈥楤rit-politics鈥 dilemma
That challenge was underlined Thursday by the resignation of Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, and other cabinet members. Parliament must approve the withdrawal agreement with the EU, and a rebellion in May鈥檚 own ranks now makes that hard, if not impossible, to achieve without votes from the opposition Labour Party.
On Wednesday, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn goaded May in Parliament over the 鈥渂ackstop鈥 in the agreement to maintain an open border between Ireland, an EU member, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK. He drew attention to the fact that the deal would not safeguard 鈥渢he sovereign right of any UK parliament to unilaterally withdraw from any backstop鈥 without EU approval, a concern that resonates with Brexit supporters in the ruling Conservative Party.
May insisted that the backstop would be temporary. She told lawmakers they had a choice between backing her treaty or facing economic chaos. 鈥淭he choice is clear. We can choose to leave with no deal, we can risk no Brexit at all, or we can choose to unite and support the best deal that can be negotiated,鈥 she said.
The divisions in the ruling Conservative Party over Europe are mirrored across the aisle. Labour accuses the government of doing a bad job of negotiating Brexit terms, yet the opposition has been short on concrete proposals, leading many to believe that its strategy is to hasten a political crisis and an election that it can win. Most Labour MPs, including some who campaigned to stay in the EU, represent districts that voted to leave and where sovereignty and borders remain potent issues.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 the dilemma for Brit-politics. Brexit has cut across both of the main parties鈥 constituencies,鈥 says Matthew Goodwin, professor of politics at the University of Kent and coauthor of National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy.鈥
Mayall, the protester, agrees with euroskeptic MPs who prefer that Britain simply leave the EU and revert to World Trade Organization terms of trade. It鈥檚 a scenario that alarms her employer, an asset management firm, she says. Most financial services companies are aghast at the idea, and some have already moved jobs elsewhere in Europe. 聽
But Mayall says she prefers this solution to Britain鈥檚 agonizing and continuing battle over EU membership. 鈥淚f we don鈥檛 leave and make a clean break, this issue won鈥檛 go away,鈥 she says.