海角大神

Five thousand miles separate Downing Street, home to British Prime Minister Theresa May, and the Ryongsong Residence, the decidedly grander domestic surroundings of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.

But both Britain and North Korea have become powerful exemplars of a stubborn law of international affairs: that a single 鈥渂reakthrough鈥� event may pave the way for, but rarely in itself creates, the new reality its cheerleaders foresee. That鈥檚 where the challenges, and complications, begin.

For Britain, the issue is Brexit: the 2016 referendum calling for an end to its decades-long membership of the European Union. In North Korea鈥檚 case, it was the unprecedented decision by US President Trump to sit down for a summit with Kim Jong-un in Singapore in June of this year.

After each event, the cheerleaders were in full voice. Ardent advocates of Brexit spoke of a Britain liberated, with the promise of rich new trade opportunities worldwide far outweighing any short-term economic pain from breaking with the country鈥檚 largest and closest market. Immediately after returning from the Singapore summit, Mr. Trump tweeted: 鈥淭here is no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea.鈥�

Now, the daunting complexity of redeeming those promises is hitting home.

Trump cancelled a visit to Pyongyang late last month by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Though the timing was a surprise 鈥� the trip had been announced barely 24 hours earlier 鈥� the reasoning wasn鈥檛. 鈥淚 feel we are not making sufficient progress with respect to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,鈥� the president declared.

No plan for 'how'

It was never going to be easy. Though the summit communiqu茅 did include a commitment to denuclearization, it didn鈥檛 say how or when this was going to happen, or be verified. And after the televised embrace in Singapore effectively ended the North Korean leader鈥檚 diplomatic pariah status, it inevitably became harder to get international cooperation on Trump鈥檚 鈥渕aximum pressure鈥� campaign of economic sanctions.

That鈥檚 been especially true of China, through which nearly all North Korean trade passes, at a time when the United States is in a tit-for-tat tariff battle to try to get the Chinese to alter their behavior on trade and intellectual property issues. And not only has North Korea balked at starting to dismantle, or even identify, their nuclear sites. US intelligence reports, echoed by a report voicing 鈥済rave concern鈥� from the UN鈥檚 International Atomic Energy Agency, indicate the North Koreans are continuing their nuclear weapons program.

Britain鈥檚 Prime Minister May is also facing hard realities in putting Brexit into practice. She has repeatedly emphasized her commitment to follow through on the referendum result. Aware of the need to keep her party on side, she initially set a series of 鈥渞ed lines鈥� suggesting a clean break with the EU on trade and on another key Brexit issue: immigration and the freedom of EU citizens to settle in Britain.

But last month, amid mounting pressure from business and labor unions to minimize the economic fallout, she secured a cabinet majority for a softer form of leaving. This included a proposal that Britain and the EU would still follow 鈥渃ommon rules鈥� for trade in goods and agricultural products, and a 鈥渕obility framework鈥� under which EU and British citizens could continue to move for study or work purposes.

Even that may not fly. Britain is due to leave on March 29 of next year, triggering a 21-month transition to ease the process. Not only has Mrs. May鈥檚 plan set off a storm of opposition from harder-line Brexit supporters in her own party. It leaves a number of issues unresolved and still must be accepted by openly skeptical EU negotiators, the European Parliament, the leaders of the other 27 member states, and Britain鈥檚 own Parliament.

Both the Brexit and Korea 鈥渂reakthroughs鈥� could yet produce results. On Brexit, optimists argue there is still likely to be at least a framework agreement with the EU before March 2019. All parties, notably Germany and France as core EU powers, recognize that a 鈥渘o deal鈥� scenario would risk economic disruption and damage not just for Britain but the EU. And while Trump鈥檚 statement cancelling the Pompeo visit was downbeat on denuclearization, and overtly critical of China, he did add 鈥渨armest regards and respect to Chairman Kim,鈥� and said he looked forward to 鈥渟eeing him soon.鈥�

Still, the shared lesson so far is clear: Success, if and when it鈥檚 delivered, will require navigating a complex web of political and diplomatic challenges.