After tumultuous India election, Modi softens toward Kashmir
| Srinagar, India
The political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir remains challenging terrain for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his third term.
The Himalayan region has been marred by decades of violence and political disempowerment 鈥� including the Modi government鈥檚 2019 decision to unilaterally downgrade Jammu and Kashmir from a state to union territory, ruled directly by Delhi, and revoke the region鈥檚 limited autonomy.
But last week, when Mr. Modi visited Kashmir for the first time since India鈥檚 general election, he announced that preparations for long-awaited regional Assembly elections had begun, and vowed to restore Jammu and Kashmir鈥檚 statehood.
Why We Wrote This
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to be easing up on Kashmir 鈥� a shift that could restore a sense of political agency to millions in the beleaguered region, and buttress peace efforts.
鈥淵ou have kept the flag of democracy aloft, and I have come to thank you,鈥� he told a gathering in a Srinagar auditorium, referring to the high voter turnout in recent elections.聽
The trip marked a dramatic shift in tone toward Kashmir, and follows other promising developments, including the to visit the valley in five years. Although experts are divided on whether Mr. Modi will follow through on his promises, these changes are fostering hope for some semblance of political agency and stability in Kashmir.聽
Noor Ahmad Baba, a political analyst, credits the ruling party鈥檚 election losses, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir, for the shift.聽
鈥淚n Kashmir, the kind of narratives that [India鈥檚 central government] wanted to sell post-2019 have not been able to make an impact on the ground,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he political forces that the government supported have been completely rejected by the people.鈥�
India鈥檚 new political dynamics
The Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its absolute majority in Parliament in the recent elections. In Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP won two seats but received only 24.3% of votes 鈥� about half its share in the previous election. It did not field any candidates in the Kashmir Valley鈥檚 three parliamentary constituencies. There, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) won two seats 鈥� beating out and other regional candidates 鈥� and former lawmaker Abdul Rashid Sheikh secured the third from prison.
Mr. Sheikh鈥檚 victory is seen as a protest against the mass crackdown on political dissent in Kashmir, in which thousands were imprisoned and press freedoms curtailed. In the past, BJP leaders have also attempted to discredit local political parties, accusing them of corruption and nepotism.
But since the recent elections, Tanvir Sadiq, chief spokesperson of the JKNC, says the BJP appears to be easing up on this practice. And implementing future crackdowns 鈥渨ill be even more challenging now, given the presence of an alliance government鈥� in Delhi, he adds.
This all bodes well for Kashmiris鈥� hope for greater autonomy.聽
鈥淎n election, which previously seemed highly unlikely, now appears on the horizon,鈥� says Mr. Sadiq.聽
Indeed, analysts say the election results reveal the limits of ruling by fear, and highlight the necessity for political engagement and dialogue.聽
Still, without a clear date set, the elections aren鈥檛 guaranteed.聽
Path to peace?聽
The central government鈥檚 current position, caught between maintaining control and addressing demands for democratic processes, is a tenuous balancing act.聽
Radha Kumar, author of 鈥淭he Republic Relearnt: Renewing Indian Democracy (1947-2024),鈥� says that after revoking Kashmir鈥檚 limited autonomy in 2019 and launching a widespread crackdown without any consultation, the government thought it would create an 鈥渙bedient populace.鈥� Instead, it created a security state mentality ruled by fear.聽
The risk of loosening the reins is the resurgence of separatist violence, which has declined in recent years.
鈥淭hey are in a dilemma,鈥� says Dr. Kumar, who was part of a government-appointed interlocutors panel on Kashmir in 2010. 鈥淵ou can鈥檛 indefinitely prolong the security state, so it鈥檚 between the devil and the deep sea.鈥�
For Lieutenant General (retired) Syed Ata Hasnain, a former corps commander in Kashmir, this security situation is essential to understanding the BJP鈥檚 motives in the valley. The new Modi government is not mellowing its stance on local separatists or 鈥渞adical ideologues,鈥� he explains in an email, but recalibrating its approach to the region in the hopes of one day entering Kashmir鈥檚 political mainstream.聽
鈥淚t will aim to form a government on its own strength,鈥� he says. 鈥淔or that, a calibrated political approach will be needed without giving away anything in terms of security.鈥�
Retired Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kak says it鈥檚 too early to tell if Mr. Modi will adopt a more moderate stance on Kashmir. But for now, 鈥渋f the state elections are held, it is reasonable to believe that the ruling dispensation will be trounced in the valley,鈥� and, to some extent, Jammu, he says.
That鈥檚 a reality Mr. Modi will need to weigh when considering a third-term policy on Kashmir.聽
For Sudheendra Kulkarni, a former adviser to the prime minister during the 1999-2004 BJP government, the choice is clear.
鈥淭he people of Kashmir have felt that they have been disenfranchised. That they have no vote, they have no voice and they are being governed from Delhi,鈥� he says. 鈥淣ow, unless the people participate in the peace process, there will be no genuine peace.鈥�
