India鈥檚 opposition parties team up to beat Modi. Is it enough?
During India鈥檚 tryst with authoritarianism in the 1970s, hope for a democratic revival came from an unlikely place 鈥� a prison in the southern city of Bengaluru.聽
India had taken a dictatorial turn after then-Prime Minister Indira Gandhi imposed a state of national emergency. The press was censored, the judiciary compromised, and opposition leaders were thrown in jail. During their stay in the Bengaluru prison, prominent figures from India鈥檚 various opposition parties set aside their differences to lay the groundwork for the Janata Alliance, a rainbow coalition of disparate parties ranging from communists to far-right nationalists, which eventually defeated Mrs. Gandhi鈥檚 Congress party.
More than four decades later, amid growing concern over India鈥檚 democratic backslide, Bengaluru is witnessing a similar bid for cooperation.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onA common enemy can be a powerful unifier. But in India, a new rainbow coalition will need to dig deeper if it wants to sweep the polls and stop the country鈥檚 democratic backslide.
Last month, 26 opposition parties gathered in the Karnataka capital to : the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). The goal is to unite India鈥檚 fractured opposition ahead of the 2024 parliamentary election, and to unseat Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has been criticized for targeting minorities, curbing free speech, and abusing India鈥檚 democratic institutions. Critics say the alliance faces an uphill battle 鈥� the main challenge being crafting a platform that will mobilize voters from different backgrounds 鈥� but history suggests INDIA shouldn鈥檛 be written off.聽
The formation of INDIA brings hope for India鈥檚 democracy 鈥渟imply because it offers an alternative to the ruling party,鈥� says Christophe Jaffrelot, a scholar of South Asia politics who has authored books on the Indira Gandhi and Modi regimes. 鈥�... INDIA, like the Janata, does not have a clear prime minister in waiting. ...聽 [But] people may still vote for its candidates to get rid of the ruling party and its anti-democratic and anti-social policies.鈥�
Saving India鈥檚 democracy
Not long ago, India was considered a poster child of democracy, but today it has come to exemplify a global trend of democratic recession.
Several independent organizations have sounded alarms over the decline of Indian democracy. While the (Varieties of Democracy) Institute in Sweden demoted India鈥檚 status from a 鈥渄emocracy鈥� to an 鈥渆lectoral autocracy,鈥� the country went from 鈥渇ree鈥� to 鈥減artly free鈥� in 鈥檚 study of political rights and civil liberties. Rajeev Gowda, senior spokesperson of the Congress party, the largest opposition party and the leader of INDIA, says that India has seen relentless attacks on 鈥渢he country鈥檚 democratic and federal edifice.鈥�
鈥淕iven that BJP rule has worsened religious polarisation and increased divisiveness, violence, and economic inequality, it is imperative that parties committed to the values enshrined in the Constitution of India come together to defeat the BJP,鈥� he says via WhatsApp. 鈥淭hat is the logic for the birth of the INDIA coalition.鈥�
And when it comes to winning seats in parliament, cooperation is essential.聽
India鈥檚 鈥渇irst past the post鈥� voting system works on a winner-take-all basis. People vote for a single candidate, and the candidate with the most votes wins. This, combined with the fact that India has always had a dominant national party and a splintered opposition, means that the incumbent historically has the advantage. The BJP, which replaced the center-left Congress as India鈥檚 dominant party in 2014, can win a higher share of seats with a relatively lower vote share. In the , they won 55% of the parliamentary seats with 37% of the popular vote.
By joining forces, INDIA members aim to mitigate that imbalance, though it took years to form an alliance. Dr. Jaffrelot blames the delay on the BJP鈥檚 鈥渃arrot and stick鈥� approach of keeping smaller, regional parties in check. While Mrs. Gandhi chose to imprison the entire opposition back in the 1970s, many say that Mr. Modi has used central law enforcement agencies to .
Parties fell in line out of fear or favor, says Dr. Jaffrelot, and for the same reasons, a few key parties have still opted out of INDIA.
INDIA鈥檚 pitch
Sanyam Kumar, a banking professional who voted for the BJP in the previous elections but now finds himself on the fence, agrees that the Modi administration has undermined India鈥檚 democracy. But he says he鈥檒l still vote for the BJP if INDIA can鈥檛 produce a concrete, compelling platform.聽
鈥淚 do not think they can get me to vote for them if their only [unique selling point] is 鈥榮aving democracy.鈥� I am not buying that,鈥� he says, opining that no matter who is in power, the government always encroaches on liberties. 鈥淭hey need to talk about the real issues to get my vote.鈥�
Yashraj Wade, a Mumbai-based consultant who leans toward the BJP, is also skeptical. He sees INDIA as a hodgepodge of parties threatened by the mass appeal of Mr. Modi.聽
鈥淭heir single-point agenda is to be anti-Modi,鈥� he says, adding that sticking to this narrow focus 鈥渨ould only weaken them further and strengthen the BJP.鈥�
Indian political scientist Suhas Palshikar agrees that most governments succumb to democratic transgressions 鈥� 鈥淎ll jailers seek to keep the prison intact,鈥� he says, referring to draconian laws implemented under previous ruling parties 鈥� but is quick to point out that the BJP has been threatening the very foundations of India鈥檚 democracy. Mr. Palshikar also contests the idea that INDIA is little more than a Modi hate club.聽
鈥淭he anti-Modi tag has been employed by the BJP and Modi himself and the pliable media has dutifully picked it up,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he initial brief statement by INDIA does go beyond Modi,鈥� touching on the Manipur conflict, economic crisis, unemployment, and inflation.聽
Still, to succeed, INDIA will need to project itself as more than an 鈥渁nti-Modi鈥� alliance, as well as confront the limitations to its 鈥渟aving democracy鈥� pitch. Indeed, in a country with rampant poverty, inequality, and hunger, the average voter鈥檚 choices are driven more by bread-and-butter issues than abstract issues of democracy. Mr. Gowda, from the Congress party, says that INDIA constituents are working toward a common agenda aimed at providing relief to the poor and widening the social security net.
Driving this cooperation is the same force that brought the member parties to Bengaluru in the first place.聽
鈥淭hey have realised聽鈥� at last聽鈥� that their very existence was at stake,鈥� says Dr. Jaffrelot, in an email. 鈥淚f opposition parties do not close ranks, their fate is sealed.鈥�
