US, Ukraine find common ground on peace. Will Russia join them?
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
President Donald Trump鈥檚 central second-term goals 鈥� ending the war in Ukraine and repairing relations with Moscow 鈥� have led to another stab at a peace plan in a roller-coaster year of diplomatic efforts on the nearly 4-year-old European conflict.
After a flurry of hush-hush talks that stretched from Florida earlier this month to Geneva over this past weekend, and then to Abu Dhabi, it appeared the parties could be on the cusp of Mr. Trump鈥檚 much-desired ceasefire.
But then, maybe not as close as things had appeared. By Tuesday聽afternoon, President Trump offered his Truth Social followers a long post in which he said that, despite 鈥渢remendous progress鈥� over the last week toward ending the war, he would be relegating continued diplomacy on the issue to advisers. He would enter the negotiations personally 鈥淥NLY when the deal to end this war is FINAL or, in final stages.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
A roller-coaster diplomatic saga, with a mercurial US president at the helm, has left Ukrainians confused about what it will take to end their war with Russia. But could a deal be just around the corner?
Mr. Trump said he was directing his chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff, to meet with聽Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll to meet with the聽Ukrainian side.
Moreover, he said he hoped he would be able to meet soon with Mr. Putin and Ukrainian聽President Volodymyr Zelenskyy 鈥� but only when a deal was sealed or very near it.聽That laid to rest speculation that Mr. Zelenskyy would meet with Mr. Trump, perhaps at the president's Mar-a-Lago estate, by the end of the week.
Less than 24 hours earlier, Mr. Trump had cited 鈥渂ig progress鈥� on Truth Social and said "something good might be happening." In Kyiv, national security adviser Rustem Umerov said on Tuesday that Ukraine had reached a 鈥渃ommon understanding on the core terms of an agreement鈥� with U.S. and European officials.
Yet, despite the fresh momentum toward a deal, the earlier ups and downs of the year have left officials cautious. That included Mr. Trump, who advised his Truth Social readers: 鈥淒on鈥檛 believe it until you see it.鈥�
Over the last week, an American 28-point plan that read like a Russian wish list was transformed by U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators into a 19-point plan more amenable to Ukrainian interests.
The catch is that the whittled-down plan leaves several of the thorniest issues 鈥� including territorial concessions on Ukraine鈥檚 part, the size of Ukraine鈥檚 army after the war, and NATO鈥檚 relationship with Ukraine 鈥� to be addressed by Mr. Trump and President Zelenskyy.
Another face to face?
It remained unclear on Tuesday when the two leaders would meet. Some of the Ukrainian leader鈥檚 top aides reportedly advised their boss against a trip to Washington, given Mr. Trump鈥檚 mercurial nature.
Indeed, the record of face-to-face encounters between the two leaders over the past nine months offers no reliable clue as to how a discussion on such critical issues might go, some experts say.
鈥淚t鈥檚 all a question of what Trump鈥檚 mood is on the day Zelenskyy meets with him,鈥� says Rajan Menon, a senior research scholar at Columbia University鈥檚 Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. 鈥淚t could be an opportunity for Zelenskyy to demonstrate to Trump that he embraces his efforts and win Trump over to his side 鈥� or it could go terribly wrong and end up the kind of split that [Russian leader Vladimir] Putin is hoping to see,鈥� he adds.
鈥淚t will come down to which Donald Trump Zelenskyy meets with when he arrives,鈥� Dr. Menon says.
Perhaps the one constant over this year has been Mr. Trump鈥檚 unwavering insistence on ending the war, thus bolstering his image as a peacemaker.
For a brief period over the summer, the president had suggested he was washing his hands of the war, saying he 鈥渨ished both countries well鈥� while leaving them to fight it out and 鈥渒ill each other.鈥�
But with a Gaza ceasefire agreement under his belt, the president directed his chief peace negotiator, business associate Steve Witkoff, to reach a deal in Ukraine before Thanksgiving.
The original 28-point plan that Mr. Witkoff worked out with a Russian counterpart echoed Mr. Trump鈥檚 Alaska summit with Mr. Putin, which appeared to many to end with the U.S. president fully in Russia鈥檚 court.
Some U.S. analysts and even a few Republican congressional leaders said the plan appeared to have been authored by Russian officials in Moscow.
In a social media post on Sunday night, Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said that 鈥渢hose who think pressuring the victim and appeasing the aggressor will bring peace are kidding themselves.鈥�
The approach of an endgame?
But the weekend talks in Geneva ended with both the American and Ukrainian sides hailing what Secretary of State Marco Rubio called 鈥渢remendous progress鈥� in refining the original language to address Ukraine鈥檚 chief concerns.
That recalled Mr. Trump鈥檚 shift to a more pro-Ukraine stance after a June NATO summit, at which he expressed his 鈥渄isappointment鈥� with Mr. Putin for not matching his pledges with actions.
President Trump鈥檚 renewed enthusiasm for a Ukraine peace deal appears to have been fed by a sense in the White House that a vulnerable Ukraine and a politically weakened Mr. Zelenskyy had little choice but to accept concessions.
鈥淭he situation on the ground in Ukraine continues to deteriorate, the military is having trouble with desertions ... and now Zelenskyy has a very big corruption scandal on his hands,鈥� points out Michael Desch, an international affairs professor at the University of Notre Dame.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 know what chips Ukraine has at this point,鈥� he adds, 鈥渁nd I think the Trump folks know that.鈥�
Even more critically, it appears, White House officials concluded that Ukraine was never going to retake the parts of the eastern Donbas region that Russia has occupied and would very likely lose the rest of it in continued bloody fighting.
A proposal in the original plan that Ukraine should cede to Russia what would become a demilitarized zone 鈥� seen by many as the cherry on the top of the Russian wish list, appears now to have been dropped. But it remains unclear what proposal on territorial concessions the two presidents will work from when they meet.
The trick for Mr. Zelenskyy, whenever he again meets Mr. Trump, Dr. Menon says, will be to demonstrate that he is on board with a U.S. peace plan, even as he resists any provisions that for Ukraine would be tantamount to 鈥渁bject surrender.鈥�
