Argentina elections: Why young voters are signing up for populism
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
| Buenos Aires, Argentina
For Tom谩s Kontos, a first-year student at the University of Buenos Aires鈥� law school, there is no mystery to his enthusiastic support for a return to leftist, Peronist populism in Sunday鈥檚 presidential election.
鈥淚t鈥檚 simple. My older sister was the first in our family to be able to go to university, and now she鈥檚 a lawyer and I鈥檓 following her steps as a student here, and it couldn鈥檛 have happened without the benefits of聽el peronismo 鈥� including free studies at this university,鈥� says the young man from what he describes as a 鈥渕odest鈥� neighborhood of Buenos Aires.
鈥淢y sister becoming a lawyer, that鈥檚 el peronismo,鈥� Mr. Kontos adds. 鈥淐ontrast that with the young people we now see gathering cardboard from dumpsters to be able to eat. We never had that in Argentina before.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
Is history repeating itself in Argentina? Peronism, so entwined with the country鈥檚 story, looks poised to take back the presidency. But in part, that鈥檚 thanks to a new generation鈥檚 view of the movement.
Four years after the center-right free-marketeer Mauricio Macri entered the Casa Rosada, the presidential residence, with a pledge to make Argentina a 鈥渘ormal鈥� country free of the economic roller coaster of populist governance, all signs point to his scathing defeat.
Argentines appear to have decided in large numbers that, compared to the 鈥渘ew normal鈥� of high inflation, ever more expensive public services, and a widening wealth gap, they鈥檇 rather risk the roller coaster ride one more time.
And if the Peronist ticket of Alberto Fern谩ndez and former President Cristina Fern谩ndez de Kirchner (as vice president) wins Sunday, it will be due in no small part to overwhelming support from Argentina鈥檚 youth 鈥� and to the memory that slice of the electorate has of populism, which is more Kirchner than Per贸n.
In other words, analysts here say, young people associate populism more with the good times and emphasis on issues like workers鈥� rights and human rights of former President N茅stor Kirchner and wife Cristina (who between them led the nation for 12 of this century鈥檚 first 19 years) than with the protectionism and authoritarian leanings of a now-distant Juan Per贸n.
鈥淵oung people just tend to be more to the left, and that鈥檚 the case in Argentina, but recent surveys have found that young people identify more today with issues like solidarity with workers and the poor, the environment, and feminist causes,鈥� says Lucas Romero, director general of Synopsis, a consulting firm in Buenos Aires.聽
鈥淎nd on all those issues, we see young people associating them more with the peronismo of Cristina,鈥� he adds.
鈥淔atal realities鈥� for Macri
In this last week of campaigning, Argentine media have dedicated more space to the upheavals shaking some of the country鈥檚 neighbors, from Chile to Ecuador and Bolivia, than to national politics.
Some Peronist politicians have darkly warned that the unrest that has destabilized a normally orderly Chile and prompted a state of emergency for the first time since the end of the Pinochet dictatorship could easily cross the Andes, since the issues of a widening wealth gap, rising prices of services, and a general sense of economic injustice affect both countries.
But such a contagion is unlikely in Argentina, Mr. Romero says, in large part because of the safety valve of Sunday鈥檚 election.
鈥淚n Argentina, the sentiment for many is that el peronismo is about to return, so we can wait,鈥� he says. An open primary vote in August left Mr. Macri 16 points behind Mr. Fern谩ndez, a surprise victory that sent the peso tumbling.聽Investors worry about how the next government will deal with the country鈥檚 massive debt.
Mr. Macri was almost doomed from the beginning because of the enormity of the task of weaning the country from its deep populist roots, some analysts say.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 know of any leader who could profoundly alter the political history of a country in three or four years,鈥� says Juan Luis Bour, chief economist at FIEL, the Foundation for Economic Research on Latin America, in Buenos Aires. 鈥淲hat Macri set out to do was a restructuring of the Argentine economy, and that was never going to be easy.鈥�
For Mr. Bour, Argentina simply spends beyond its means. With no ability to borrow to get out of the deep hole the Kirchner government left for him, Mr. Macri set about cutting subsidies and raising rates for public services, like electricity and Buenos Aires transit prices. (It was a rise in Santiago subway fares that sparked Chile鈥檚 mass protests.)
Joining the young in largely supporting a return to el peronismo are many of Argentina鈥檚 retired and elderly.
鈥淭his is a protest march but it is also a celebration, because Macri is going away as of Sunday,鈥� says Eduardo Silva, a retired worker from Argentina鈥檚 social security administration, as he reveled in a recent 鈥減arty鈥� of boisterous retired Argentines bidding Mr. Macri 鈥渇arewell鈥� on a recent sunny morning.
鈥淧ensioners are being hit in two ways, with very [high] inflation and higher deductions from our retirements,鈥� he says.
President Macri faced two 鈥渇atal realities鈥� that he could do nothing about, says Mr. Romero, the consultant.
One was economic, he says, with the country experiencing both a recession and high inflation at the same time. The other was political, with Mr. Macri confronting an uncharacteristically united coalition of populist forces.
鈥淲hen the various groups and tendencies within el peronismo are united, they win,鈥� says Mr. Romero. 鈥淎nd the misfortune for Macri is that for this election, the Peronistas are very united.鈥�
Youth appeal聽鈥� or lack of
But the president faced another roadblock that was of his own making, according to Mr. Romero: He never had an attractive message for young people.
鈥淚t was pretty much 鈥楤e good, don鈥檛 act up, and we鈥檒l handle the country,鈥欌�� Mr. Romero says. He points to the Macri government鈥檚 message that 鈥淎rgentina was like a house where there had been a big party鈥� 鈥� with unsustainable subsidies and social-benefit party favors the previous government doled out 鈥� but that now it was time for the adults to put order in the party house.
鈥淭here was truth to that message, but it was also very moralistic and wasn鈥檛 well taken, especially by young people,鈥澛爃e says.
Mr. Bour, of FIEL, says Mr. Macri was never going to be able to compete with Cristina Kirchner for the youth vote, because of her close association with social justice and human rights issues that he says many middle-class youth still connect to the 鈥渓uminous past鈥� of the Latin America left, starting with Argentina鈥檚 own Che Guevara.
But the students at the University of Buenos Aires Law School who do support Mr. Fern谩ndez (and Cristina) in Sunday鈥檚 elections aren鈥檛 wearing El Che T-shirts or talking about Fidel Castro. They are, on the other hand, repeatedly citing a widening income gap and rising poverty. Argentina鈥檚 youth have been 聽by unemployment.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not that we鈥檙e anti-capitalist, we鈥檙e not,鈥� says Azul Cavaleri, who accompanies her friend Tom谩s Kontos in handing out flyers for La C谩mpora, a pro-Kirchner Peronist political youth group. 鈥淏ut we do think the wealth the country generates should be more fairly distributed, and that the costs to be born in the hard times should be more evenly shared.鈥�
In two political economy classes, a show of hands reveals that about half plan to vote for the Peronist Fern谩ndez, with a small scattering of hands supporting Mr. Macri, and others planning to nullify their vote (in Argentina, voting is obligatory).
鈥淚 do plan to vote Peronist, but it is a more modern peronismo of social works and human rights that I support, not the protectionist and heavily state-interventionist peronismo of the past,鈥� says Sof铆a S谩nchez, a third-year law student from the Buenos Aires suburb of San Mart铆n.
But overall, in this very small slice of the youth vote, there is little enthusiasm for any candidate 鈥� or conviction that anyone will be able to quickly turn the country around.
Mr. Macri always faced tough odds, Mr. Bour says, because people associate him with lower subsidies and high inflation. Of el peronismo, on the other hand, Argentines have a very different memory, which he describes as 鈥渢hree years of happiness before the fall鈥� 鈥� with many voters preferring to remember the three years.
鈥�El peronismo is a bit like magic,鈥� says Mr. Bour, who notes that Argentina鈥檚 populist governments have found ways 鈥� such as the windfall of a commodities boom during Cristina Kirchner鈥檚 years 鈥� to make their spending seem painless, at least for a while.
鈥淎nd of course,鈥� he adds, 鈥減eople like magic.鈥�
