Raise the retirement age? In Brazil, that鈥檚 starting to sound all right.
| Rio de Janeiro
Rogerio Bruno has been working for 33 years: in finance, at a telephone company, and then running his own kiosk, selling anything from magazines to gum to plastic toys. Now, if Brazil moves forward with a proposed overhaul of its pension system, he鈥檒l likely have to work a decade longer than he planned.
But still, he embraces the reform. 鈥淚 know it鈥檚 necessary听鈥� and most Brazilians know it too,鈥� he says as he hands change back to a customer at his Rio de Janeiro shop. With Brazil鈥檚 rising life expectancy and sluggish economy, he doesn鈥檛 see another way forward, even if the changes hit people like him the hardest. 鈥淚t won鈥檛 be easy, but it鈥檚 something that must be done.鈥澨�
With immediate sacrifices听鈥� and benefits that take years to materialize听鈥� social security reform can be a third rail almost anywhere. Ambitious plans for a social security overhaul have repeatedly spurred massive protests in France, and Argentina passed reforms in 2017 amid violent protests. Last fall, thousands of Russians demonstrated against plans to raise the retirement age.听
Why We Wrote This
It鈥檚 no mystery why pension reform is a political taboo: Workers feel their sacrifice more keenly than the broader benefits. So why are so many Brazilians suddenly backing it 鈥� at a time of bitter polarization, no less?
Until recently, Brazil was no exception. Just two years ago, proposed reforms drew thousands of protesters into the streets, fiercely rejecting attempts to change a system that sees many workers retire in their mid-50s 鈥撎�
Now, popular support for the changes is surging. At a rally in May for new, far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, thousands of demonstrators erupted into a jubilant chant at the mention of the reform, which some see as an attempt to make the system more fair. Many others, like Mr. Bruno, have quietly accepted it may be a necessity, if Brazil stands a chance at clawing its way out of an economic slump. And the country鈥檚 deep political polarization may actually be helping unify support for the once-taboo topic.
This week, a reform bill cleared a final vote in the lower house of Congress with an overwhelming majority and moved forward for debate in the Senate, where it could be approved as a constitutional amendment as early as September. Some 51% of Brazilians support pension reform, by Datafolha, a leading pollster 鈥� the first time a majority has approved. In 2017, .听
鈥淚t鈥檚 an amazing number听鈥� I don鈥檛 remember the last time half of Brazilian citizens agreed on anything,鈥� says S茅rgio Pra莽a, a political scientist at Get煤lio Vargas Foundation, a think tank in Rio de Janeiro. 鈥淲e鈥檙e in a very polarized time in Brazil. But it seems that, around this point, we鈥檙e less divided.鈥�
Tough sell
Brazil鈥檚 government has been trying to reform the social security system for years, but bitter opposition and a slew of scandals repeatedly halted previous efforts.
Former President Michel Temer placed pension reform at the center of his broader efforts at a fiscal cleanup, but corruption charges derailed his agenda. His predecessor, leftist President Dilma Rousseff, was impeached before she could bring a proposal forward.听
In the past, representatives on both the left and the right risked paying a hefty political price for backing reform. Many lawmakers who threw support behind this week鈥檚 bill 鈥渨ould have voted against it in a Rousseff administration,鈥� says Pedro Fernando Nery, an economist, legislative adviser, and co-author of an influential book on the pension system. 鈥淭his has been a very unpopular issue for a long time, like in the rest of the world.鈥�
The current proposal would increase contribution requirements, remove some perks for federal workers, and raise the minimum age for retirement to 62 for women and 65 for men.听
With rising public support for reform, many representatives were emboldened to vote for the bill without fear, Mr. Pra莽a notes.
鈥淭hey know that a lot of the public wants this reform to be passed,鈥� he says. 鈥淭here鈥檚 surprisingly a lot of political gain in approving this.鈥澨�
Political polarization
While many of President Bolsonaro鈥檚 most enthusiastic supporters credit him with the bill, the president听鈥� who opposed pension reform in the past听鈥� is not spearheading the legislation. about a third of Brazilians fervently support Mr. Bolsonaro but another third strongly disapprove, making it difficult to forge political alliances and build momentum around his agenda.
The traditional left, meanwhile, was weakened in the last election as Brazilians voiced their frustration with Ms. Rousseff鈥檚 Workers鈥� Party (PT), which many now associate with corruption and mismanagement.
This fragmentation created a political vacuum, allowing a coalition of center-right lawmakers to take the reins on the reform and move it forward, according to Geraldo Tadeu Monteiro, coordinator of the faculty of law at the State University of Rio de Janeiro. Their role, in turn, has helped make the proposal palatable to moderate Brazilians who reject their controversial president.
Mr. Bruno, for one, isn鈥檛 a fan. 鈥淏olsonaro is not responsible for any of [the reform],鈥� he says. But he likes the market-friendly economy minister, Paulo Guedes, whom he sees as leading the charge.
Under the PT, pension reform was seen as less pressing, and plans avoided hurting the country鈥檚 most vulnerable workers. Now, as Brazil鈥檚 debt has ballooned and its fiscal health has deteriorated, a fresh sense of urgency has set it. The reform was initially expected to save the government more than 1.2 trillion reais ($300 billion) over 10 years, although this projection was lowered to about 900 billion reais ($226 billion) after parts of the bill were watered down.
Many hope it will encourage investment in the country, which is still struggling with unemployment above 12% and sluggish growth following a 2015-16 recession.
Fighting privilege
For many Brazilians, including Liliane Vidal, pension reform is fundamentally about fairness. The retired bank manager believes the reform will help even out the playing field by removing perks for well-paid public sector workers, many of whom can retire in their early 50s.
鈥淭he main goal of the pension reform is to fight privilege,鈥� says the Rio de Janeiro native and Bolsonaro supporter. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a huge gap right now between normal workers and public functionaries.鈥�
Pension reform wasn鈥檛 always viewed here as a way to fight inequality. But with the help of a massive media campaign, former President Temer reframed the reform as a way to close loopholes, rather than as an attack on normal working people.
Yet the legislation may not necessarily deliver. After much debate, state and municipal workers were exempted from the reform, although the Senate could still reconsider. Sectors backed by powerful lobbies, including police and teachers, also negotiated better deals. The military is being considered in a separate bill, which some expect to fade into the background.听
As a result, the reforms are likely to hit middle-class workers the hardest, according to Mr. Nery, rather than truly eliminating privileges for the few.
The reform also doesn鈥檛 reflect the vast discrepancies across Brazil in how long people work and live. In the northern state of Roraima, the average worker is 64.8 years old when they retire, data from the Brazilian Social Security Institute shows. In the wealthier southern state of Santa Catarina, the average retirement age is just 57.2 years.
鈥淏razil is a very unequal country,鈥� says Mr. Monteiro. 鈥淎nd those differences are not contemplated in the pension system reform.鈥�
Leandro Sadapaz, a cleaner from the populous Duque de Caxias suburb, says the reform carries little hope of solving Brazil鈥檚 problems.
鈥淚f the reform was for everyone, it would be a great thing,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 not. It鈥檚 only for the poor, for the working class. Those with privileges will stay privileged.鈥�
