海角大神

For high school teacher Roberto Ortiz, the political battle between leaders Nicol谩s Maduro and Juan聽Guaid贸聽over who is the legitimate president of Venezuela is like watching a long, exhausting boxing match.聽

On January 23, Mr.聽Guaid贸, president of the National Assembly, stood in front of hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans in eastern Caracas to declare himself聽interim聽president, rejecting聽Mr. Maduro鈥檚 contested 2018 election as illegitimate. He had a long list of lofty and daring promises: pledging to bring in international humanitarian aid within a month for a population increasingly suffering from food and medical shortages, and vowing to pressure Mr. Maduro to step down and hold fresh presidential elections.聽聽

Six months later, he鈥檚 failed to deliver on nearly everything, and struggling to harness the enthusiasm and hope he originally inspired.聽

But he鈥檚 still standing.聽

鈥淕uaid贸聽is still in the fight and has punched Maduro pretty hard. The previous opposition leaders were not able to hurt Maduro too much and some even refused to enter the ring,鈥� says Mr. Ortiz, at a rally for Mr.聽Guaid贸 in the northwestern city of Barquisimeto in late May.

Despite repeated letdowns, Mr. Guaid贸聽remains a beacon of hope for many in and outside Venezuela. This is in stark contrast to opposition leaders who have failed to unify supporters 鈥� or the historically splintered opposition party coalition 鈥� in the past. For a society accustomed to constantly looking for its next political savior, the fact that his rallies continue to draw big crowds and that his support is still above 50% is telling, observers say.

The combination of foreign support for his interim leadership, his ability to skirt imprisonment or arrest by the Maduro government, and his continued high-profile presence across Venezuela has given many Venezuelans faith that he may still be able to deliver on a regime change 鈥� even if the timeline is longer than many had hoped.

鈥淗e has the courage to call himself the president,鈥� says Caracas-based political analyst Dimitris聽Pantoulas. And 鈥渉e has the support of the U.S. and most of the Western world, which is fundamental.鈥澛犅�

Risky moves聽

After Mr. Guaid贸 missed ambitious deadlines to bring in humanitarian aid, many saw April 30 as his make or break. In the early-morning hours he broadcast a message to the world, saying he had the support of the armed forces and it was time for Mr. Maduro to step down. Within hours, it became clear that wasn鈥檛 going to happen. The few soldiers who did defect soon went into hiding, and Mr. Guaid贸鈥檚 risky move fizzled. Although his approval ratings fell following the stunt, many were surprised he didn鈥檛 fall out of favor more dramatically, as other opposition leaders have after failing to follow through on big promises.聽

鈥淲hen it comes to popularity,聽Guaid贸聽continues to be a strong leader. His approval rating聽fell only from 61% in February to 56% at the end of May. Maduro鈥檚 approval rating is now abysmal, around 10%,鈥� says Luis Vicente Le贸n, director of Caracas-based polling company聽Datan谩lisis.聽聽聽聽聽

But聽Mr.聽Guaid贸鈥檚聽sustained popularity no longer translates into feelings of hope for immediate change. In late May, only 25% of the respondents in a聽Datan谩lisis聽poll believed in Mr. Maduro鈥檚 imminent exit, while back in January the expectations were much higher 鈥� 70% of Venezuelans assumed Mr. Maduro was on his way out the door, says Mr. Le贸n.聽聽

Part of what鈥檚 buoyed Mr.聽Guaid贸聽is his visible presence around the country. He鈥檚 trying to hold a rally in every state, hitting 12 so far this year and with plans to visit at least four more in July alone. At each stop, he鈥檚 calling for Mr. Maduro to step down. In his speeches and interviews, he鈥檚 labeled Mr. Maduro鈥檚 inner circle as a group of thieves, and he鈥檚 alluded to his constitutional power .

This kind of behavior would have landed any other opposition leader in jail. In fact,聽many former leaders, from Leopoldo L贸pez to Henrique聽Capriles, have been banned from holding office, put under house arrest, or are now in hiding following their public rejection of Mr. Maduro.聽聽

But Mr.聽Guaid贸鈥檚聽been able to remain untouchable due to the international support he鈥檚 received. More than 50 nations, including the United聽States,聽Canada, Japan,聽most of the European Union countries, Brazil, and Argentina, recognize him as the nation鈥檚 鈥渓egitimate鈥� president. After years of downward economic spiral聽that have led an estimated 4 million people to seek refuge abroad, neighbors and the international community at large see Venezuela鈥檚 economic, humanitarian, and political crises as more pressing than ever. Mr. Guaid贸鈥檚 use of legal channels to declare himself interim president offer the international community a palatable, non-interventionist route toward regime change.聽

And it helps that Mr.聽Guaid贸鈥檚聽supporters see him as an honest broker: He won鈥檛 betray their interests by making deals with the government behind closed doors, says Mr.聽Pantoulas. 鈥淭his was something the previous opposition leaders would often do,鈥� he says.

No longer 鈥渄azzled,鈥� not yet 鈥渃rushed鈥澛�

At Mr.聽Guaid贸鈥檚聽most recent聽rally in Caracas on July 5, Venezuela鈥檚 Independence Day, supporters swarmed him upon arrival, trying to clench a handshake or at least brush the opposition leader鈥檚 arm. Those further out chanted 鈥淢r. President! Mr. President!鈥澛�

Miranda Flores, a nurse, recalls earlier rallies 鈥� before the failed attempt to oust Mr. Maduro in April or the inability to get humanitarian aid across the Colombian border in February 鈥� where she felt 鈥渄azzled.鈥澛�

That鈥檚 no longer the case, but she still supports Mr.聽Guaid贸.聽聽

鈥淚 refuse to feel crushed again like so many times before,鈥� she says of getting her hopes up for change.

鈥淚 will be with聽Guaid贸聽until the very end. If he doesn鈥檛 make it, I will leave the country,鈥� says Ms. Flores, who lives in the working-class Caracas neighborhood of Petare, long a stronghold for Mr. Maduro and the聽Chavista聽government that鈥檚 held power for two decades.

Mr. Guaid贸 appeals to a range of social classes, says Alonso聽Moleiro, a Venezuelan columnist.

鈥淕uaid贸聽goes to the hinterlands聽unannounced without any publicity, with no television coverage. Many people in those places don鈥檛 even have smartphones. They struggle with power outages, lack of running water, and have no access to transportation. Still, they all come to see him,鈥澛燤r.聽Moleiro聽says.聽聽聽聽聽

But some question how long hope can last in Venezuela today, as the humanitarian situation worsens under recent U.S. oil sanctions, which have further prevented Mr. Maduro鈥檚 government from importing vital food and medical products. Venezuela depends on oil sales to generate more than 95% of its exports.聽The economic and humanitarian situation is only expected to worsen, with the International Monetary Fund predicting Venezuela鈥檚 economy will shrink by 25% by the end of 2019.

Many worry the prospect of a famine looms, and the question now is whether Mr. Maduro will make concessions or step down.聽He has met the opposition at the negotiating table in recent months for the first time since 2017.聽

But for some, it鈥檚 no longer about Mr. Maduro鈥檚 actions, but Mr. Guaid贸鈥檚.

鈥淕uaid贸聽has been trying to come up with a Plan B,鈥� says Ricardo Gonz谩lez, a mechanic in Caracas. 鈥淧eople now clearly see he hasn鈥檛 been able to change anything. Soon, he鈥檒l be history and we will be living an even more painful present.鈥澛�

Ms. Flores, the nurse, disagrees. 鈥淲ith most of the Western world behind him, the sanctions, and his public support: It will be difficult for anyone to reach this kind of popularity. He is the one.鈥�