海角大神

What is going on in Venezuela?

Honestly, I haven鈥檛 read every Monitor story about the slow-burning political fuse that just exploded in Venezuela, but I thought it would be helpful to highlight a few key points from our recent coverage, with links to the full stories.

First, let鈥檚 look at the big-power politics.

The U.S. and some two dozen other nations are backing 鈥渋nterim鈥� president Juan Guaid贸鈥檚 efforts to wrest control from the increasingly authoritarian President Nicol谩s Maduro. Russia, China, and Iran are among those backing Mr. Maduro. The U.S. sides with Mr. Guaid贸 and has issued sanctions. It鈥檚 also invoking the Monroe Doctrine, the 19th-century U.S. policy declaring 鈥渉ands off!鈥� to other powers intervening in the Western Hemisphere. But that may have more to do with Russia than Venezuela.

鈥淓xperts see not so much a firm stand for democracy in the U.S. sanctions and other actions targeting the Maduro government as they do evidence of resurgent big-power competition across the globe,鈥� wrote the Monitor鈥檚 Howard LaFranchi on Tuesday. 鈥淭he U.S. is claiming its hegemony over its 鈥榖ackyard鈥� in much the same way Russia is moving to reassert its influence and control over adjacent, former Soviet republics such as Ukraine.鈥�

On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo noted that Mr. Maduro had a private plane fueled and ready to . The Russians, he said, told Mr. Maduro to stay and ride out the protests.聽

If life is so bad, why didn鈥檛 this uprising happen sooner?

Yes, more than 3 million people have left Venezuela in the past two years, fleeing triple-digit inflation as well as food and medicine shortages. Most Venezuelans have lost weight聽鈥撀�19 pounds, on average, in 2015.

But Mr. Maduro is the successor to the late President Hugo Ch谩vez. And Chavismo out of poverty. Mr. Ch谩vez characterized it as 鈥�21st-century socialism鈥� and called it a revolution.

鈥淭here are dark interests fighting against our revolution,鈥� Saul Romero, a self-proclaimed 鈥渄iehard Chavista鈥� told the Monitor in February. The 鈥渞ich global elite are after our oil, gold, and diamonds. They don鈥檛 care about democracy at all.鈥� 聽聽

What鈥檚 going to happen next?

This week could be a tipping point. Or not.

If Guaid贸 fails to deliver on his promises this week, and public support for him fizzles, Venezuelans will find someone else to peg their hopes to, Alejandro Velasco at New York University told the Monitor鈥檚 Whitney Eulich Wednesday. 鈥淚n 20 years there have been so many leaders that have come and gone that the hope is always there that 鈥楾his one might be the one,鈥欌�澛爃e says.

All eyes are on the Venezuelan security forces 鈥� the police and Russia-backed military.

鈥淲e鈥檙e still not seeing enough of the highest ranks of the military abandon the Maduro regime to say the weight has shifted,鈥� Paula Garcia Tufro, deputy director of the Atlantic Council鈥檚 Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center in Washington, told the Monitor Tuesday. 鈥淎 big part of the calculus鈥� going on within the military 鈥渋s at what point do they believe the democratic transition will be sustained,鈥� she adds, 鈥渁nd we may get a better idea of that in the coming days鈥� of national protests.

If you want to read more about this crisis, and possible paths forward, check out our recent stories below.