Desperate for change, Venezuelans weigh risks of protest
| Caracas, Venezuela; and Mexico City
The day after a bombshell announcement by Venezuela鈥檚 National Assembly President Juan Guaid贸 that the military was on his side and President Nicol谩s Maduro needed to step down, the world is still waiting to see how the cards will fall.
Mass defections never came Tuesday. But that hasn鈥檛 kept Venezuelans from taking to the streets in a broad show of support for the opposition鈥檚 so-called Operation Liberty. By early Wednesday morning, small groups gathering in western Caracas were already facing off with security forces trying to disperse them with shots of tear gas. Across town, thousands of defiant demonstrators dressed in white and wearing tricolor hats of the Venezuelan flag poured into the streets, readying themselves for news of when and where Mr. Guaid贸 would speak next.
As protesters milled around in the blazing tropical heat in Plaza Altamira, one of 14 meeting spots in the capital, most conversations revolved around what to make of yesterday鈥檚 events. Opinions swung drastically between confusion and excitement, with many commenting that they鈥檇 expected something more definitive by now. Others preached patience: 鈥淓asy, Guaid贸 knows what he鈥檚 doing.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
Yesterday鈥檚 opposition protests turned into clashes with security, leaving demonstrators with little doubt of the risks ahead if they stay in the streets. But they also realize how much their presence matters.
We also want to highlight a few other stories we鈥檝e written on the crisis, which further explain what鈥檚 at stake. Please click here to read.
While much of the focus has been on whether the military will come out to support Mr. Guaid贸 in larger numbers 鈥� key to his plan鈥檚 success 鈥� keeping thousands of Venezuelans on the street across the country is vital, too. In a YouTube address Tuesday night, he encouraged citizens to show the world where popular support lies, saying 鈥渢he whole of Venezuela鈥� must hit the streets May 1 to force Mr. Maduro from power in what he called a 鈥減eaceful rebellion,鈥� not a coup. The opposition holds that Mr. Maduro鈥檚 reelection last year was fraudulent, and that per the Constitution the National Assembly leader is interim president until a new election can be held.
What鈥檚 unclear is how much appetite Venezuelans have to remain in the streets longer-term, and how much patience they will have with Mr. Guaid贸 if he鈥檚 unable to tip the balance of power in his favor.聽
The stakes are incredibly high. Not only for Mr. Guaid贸, whose credibility is on the line 鈥� and who is one of the only people involved in yesterday鈥檚 announcement who has not taken refuge in a foreign embassy 鈥� but for Venezuelans demonstrating. Tuesday鈥檚 protests ended with some 60 people injured and a brazen episode of armored government vehicles driving into crowds of opposition protesters.
鈥淚 know they can hurt me or take me prisoner, but I will not stop participating,鈥� says Sol Guerra, standing in line at a bakery in eastern Caracas Wednesday morning, readying herself for another day on the streets. She says that she鈥檚 afraid to protest sometimes, and her mother certainly discourages her out of concern for her safety, but that she鈥檚 more afraid of Mr. Maduro staying in power indefinitely than getting hurt.
鈥淚f this fails, I will have to leave,鈥� Ms. Guerra says. 鈥淏ut that鈥檚 a last resort.鈥�
鈥榃e don鈥檛 want to live like this anymore鈥�
Compared to past uprisings, 鈥渁lmost everything is different鈥� this week, says Luz Mely Reyes, director and co-founder of independent Venezuelan news site Efecto Cocuyo. She鈥檚 covered every coup attempt in Venezuela since 1992, she says, and 鈥渃itizen participation is at the heart鈥� of what鈥檚 new this time.
In 1992, followers of Hugo Ch谩vez attempted two separate coups. Then in 2002, four years after he was elected president, a coup attempt against him took advantage of existing popular protests, but was orchestrated by a small group without strong public backing.
鈥淚n today鈥檚 case, what鈥檚 important and unique is that people are still in the streets. They鈥檙e constantly in the streets鈥� showing their support for change, Ms. Reyes says.聽
There鈥檚 immense hope among opposition supporters, in and outside the country. If Mr. Maduro indeed steps down, it would be the end of the two decades-long Bolivarian Revolution, and could help lay a foundation to pull Venezuela out of a deep economic spiral that鈥檚 caused widespread food and medicine shortages, as well as regular blackouts. But the young interim leader鈥檚 credibility is at stake: Can he maintain support if there鈥檚 no follow through on his lofty declaration?
鈥淲e have to show the world that we don鈥檛 want to live like this anymore,鈥� says Yajaira Gallardo, a homemaker dressed in a white T-shirt to symbolize peace, on why turning out is key. 鈥淚 think Venezuelans have been very passive.鈥�
Another key difference between this rebellion and past coups is the level of international support for Venezuela鈥檚 opposition 鈥� both from Venezuelans living abroad and from foreign governments. More than 50 nations, including the United States, now recognize Mr. Guaid贸 as the country鈥檚 interim president, and expatriates have been instrumental in helping maintain the opposition鈥檚 momentum.聽
鈥淟evels of domestic support, whether expressed through being able to get people to the streets or polls 鈥� they鈥檙e important,鈥� says Alejandro Velasco, an associate professor of Latin American history from Venezuela who teaches at New York University. 鈥淏ut they鈥檙e not decisive. What鈥檚 important for momentum is showing the expat [and international] population that you can actually deliver on the promises you鈥檝e been making.鈥�
If the current plan 鈥渄oesn鈥檛 work, we鈥檒l have to ask for more help from Uncle Sam or our neighbors. The government is armed and Venezuelans are not. Alone we can鈥檛 make it. My compatriots need to continue in the streets,鈥� says Ms. Gallardo.
The big what-if
But many question if it will be enough 鈥� especially if Mr. Guaid贸鈥檚 bid fails, and the military can鈥檛 be swayed. The lack of a clear offer of enforceable amnesty for military leaders if they do defect may be holding some back. Even amid citizens desperate for change, not everyone is willing to risk public protest.
鈥淭he reality is I don鈥檛 even like to leave the house when there are protests,鈥� says Rovin Pan, a publicist whose best friend鈥檚 child suffered severe burns and nearly died in the 2014 anti-government demonstrations. 鈥淚 put everything in God鈥檚 hands. I think all Venezuelans see in Guaid贸 a new hope,鈥� he says, adding that he contributes in other ways, like sharing information on social media. 鈥淚n that way I will continue being part of the citizens that want change.鈥�
If Mr. Guaid贸 fails to deliver on his promises this week, and support for him fizzles, Mr. Velasco agrees Venezuelans will find someone else to peg their hopes to. 鈥淚n 20 years there have been so many leaders that have come and gone that the hope is always there that 鈥楾his one might be the one,鈥欌�� he says.
But the very real consequences of failure include even stronger international sanctions against Venezuela, which could directly affect citizens. He expects to see more people flee the country, whether due to a more violent government clamp-down on citizens or simply the loss of hope for a peaceful transition to democracy.
鈥淭here will be someone else and people will rally behind him,鈥� he says of opposition leadership. 鈥淏ut the question is, how many people will be left?鈥�
