What's in a name? Why a Castro-less Cuba may not mean a changed one.
| Havana and Mexico City
Reinaldo Flores, an unemployed transit worker in his 50s, walks through the streets of Cerro, one of Havana鈥檚 poorest neighborhoods. The street is flanked by once-grand buildings in faded shades of blue, green, and orange.
In some ways, it鈥檚 a typical day for Mr. Flores: he鈥檚 looking for work. But for him and tens of thousands of others across Cuba, today is also dramatically different.
It鈥檚 the first day in his life his president鈥檚 named something other than Castro.
Cuba鈥檚 National Assembly, a group of more than 600 handpicked politicians who run unopposed, nominated the island鈥檚 next president this week. Vice President Miguel D铆az-Canel, the only candidate put forth, will be Cuba鈥檚 first leader in nearly 60 years who wasn鈥檛 part of the revolution that overthrew US-backed dictator Fulgencio Batista and installed a Communist government on the island. Mr. D铆az-Canel is also the first leader in nearly 70 years who isn鈥檛 part of the armed forces.
The changing of the guard 鈥� after decades of聽leadership by Fidel Castro and 12 years under his brother Ra煤l 鈥� is significant. But, observers say, it鈥檚 largely symbolic. In a centralized system that works on a 鈥渙ne state, one party鈥� principle of entrenched revolutionary values, the rise of a new head of state without direct ties to the Castros鈥� uprising is more likely to lay the groundwork for future change than create big waves in the short term.
Cuba鈥檚 economy is struggling. Vital benefactors like Venezuela are distracted by their own crises, there鈥檚 little foreign investment, infrastructure is crumbling, and the dual currency system is increasingly burdensome. These are issues observers say need to be tackled head on. Although Cuba鈥檚 鈥渙ld guard鈥� is nominally clearing the way for a new generation of leadership on the island, Ra煤l Castro is still top dog in Cuba鈥檚 Communist Party and armed forces, unlikely to give D铆az-Canel much wiggle room to create significant changes anytime soon.
鈥淚f the situation Cubans are living doesn鈥檛 improve, the political changes will be in vain,鈥� Mr. Flores says of the historic transition of power.
While many in the United States view a non-Castro Cuban president as a chance to shed some of the historic baggage that鈥檚 held back relations between the two nations, in Cuba there鈥檚 less optimism. Most are wondering what they can expect 鈥� or if they should expect anything at all.
鈥淭he change in government doesn鈥檛 leave us with a lot of hope, but it does leave us with a big question: What is going to happen to Cuba?鈥� says Boris Gonz谩lez Arena, a journalist for the local news site Diario de Cuba.
鈥楲ike-minded鈥� leader?
Cuba has changed significantly under Ra煤l Castro鈥檚 two presidential terms. He did what for many was the unthinkable: warming ties with the United States, allowing private micro-businesses and entrepreneurship to blossom, and聽doing away with exit visas required for Cubans to leave the island. But he was still a Castro, lending him a certain cachet, and many question whether D铆az-Canel will have the same support for policies that push against the grain of the revolutionary project.
Cuba鈥檚 economy is weak, with many outside economists pointing to 2016 as a full-blown recession. Sugar harvests were devastated by hurricane Irma, and US聽tourism dollars that prop up the self-employed are flagging. The dual currency is creating imbalances in human capital, with those working in the tourism sector earning significantly more than highly-trained doctors or engineers.
The first task for D铆az-Canel will be getting the economy back on track, but just how radically he can approach the problems is at question 鈥� if he has a different approach in mind, to begin with.
鈥淲e have to consider that more likely than not [D铆az-Canel] was chosen as the next leader because he鈥檚 like-minded鈥� with the Castro generation, says Gustavo Flores-Mac铆as, an associate professor at Cornell University who specializes in Latin American politics. In a video leaked last year, D铆az-Canel is seen lambasting the US and emphasizing the same as his Castro predecessors, accusing dissidents and independent media of subverting the state.聽
On Thursday, Castro said he expected the new leader to serve two five-year terms as president and take over for him as head of the Communist Party when Castro steps down in 2021 鈥� the date many here view as the more realistic gateway to change by a new generation of leaders.
Cuban blogger Regina Coyula, who was born just before Castro鈥檚 1959 rise to power, hasn鈥檛 written anything about the presidential transition on her widely read blog, 鈥淟a Mala Letra鈥� (鈥淏ad Handwriting鈥�). For her, this week is less significant than the long game.
鈥淲hatever the new president does will be overseen by the Communist Party,鈥� she says. As head of the party and the armed forces, Castro is still in control of some of the most economically important sectors, like tourism, placing yet another limit on D铆az-Canel鈥檚 power.
鈥淭here鈥檚 always the chance that [D铆az-Canel] has hidden his true perspective and he will surprise all of us,鈥� says Ms. Coyula, acknowledging that it鈥檚 not something she鈥檚 holding her breath for. 鈥淚n any case, it鈥檚 up to him now to bring fresh air into our economy.鈥�
Despite the desire for economic change, not all Cubans on the island want to see a complete overhaul of the Castro鈥檚 revolutionary agenda.
鈥淲e want things to change, but we also want the things that make Cuba what it is to remain,鈥� says Aliot Castro, a teenager. He tics off security, public health, and free education as elements that are worth maintaining by any future president. His friend Alejandro L谩zaro agrees about continuity, but 鈥渨e want a future with more possibilities for youth, a new way of thinking from the government,鈥� he says.
Residents proudly boast to visitors that violent crime is essentially zero on the island (The US Embassy, however, says nonviolent crimes against tourists are common, like pickpocketing). When the Cuban revolution launched, roughly one-quarter of Cubans could not read. Today, the education system serves as a model for nations around the region, and literacy is almost universal. Medical professionals are essentially exported and traded for needed resources, like oil, with nations from Venezuela to Brazil.
鈥淐uba鈥檚 human capital, and its deep investment in human capital for decades, is crucial for the island. It鈥檚 something most anyone on the left or right can agree on,鈥� says Mr. Flores-Macias.
Today鈥檚 transition of power takes place on the anniversary of the failed US-backed Bay of Pigs operation against Castro, and coincides with new bumps in the US-Cuba relationship. President Trump last year announced some rollbacks to Obama鈥檚 historic diplomatic rapprochement with Cuba, and more than half of US diplomats have been ordered off the island following mysterious hearing loss and what were initially described as suspected 鈥渟onic attacks.鈥�
During the conclusion of the two-day National Assembly session today, where Ra煤l Castro stepped down, D铆az-Canel promised to defend the regime created by his predecessors.
鈥淭he revolution continues,鈥� he said.
The Castros鈥� armed revolution and rise to power via force has little 鈥渢o do with the changes taking place now,鈥� says Dimas Castellanos, a former university history professor here who researches race on the island. Raul鈥檚 generation of guerrilla fighters are giving up their posts, if not all of their power, he says.
鈥淏ut even if [D铆az-Canel] doesn鈥檛 want to, the new president must make changes. The warehouses are empty. The only thing that can鈥檛 happen now is that nothing changes.鈥�
