Pence replacing Trump at Peru summit. But name that matters most is Monroe.
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
The political leaders of Latin America may have been justified in daring to hope over recent years that the Monroe Doctrine was a thing of the past.
Indeed it seemed 鈥� as a succession of US presidents starting with Bill Clinton in 1994 emphasized hemispheric partnership over backyard dominance 鈥� that the 19th-century policy declaring Latin America the sole domain of the United States was a relic that had been retired. Barack Obama had appeared to provide the coda, ending the last cold-war-era conflict in the region by normalizing relations with Cuba.
Hopes deferred, perhaps.
Under President Trump the Monroe Doctrine, first uttered by President James Monroe in 1823 to warn away European colonial powers, has come roaring back. Only now Uncle Sam鈥檚 鈥渒eep out鈥� sign is directed at expansive powers China and Russia 鈥� and to some extent even Iran.
Former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson kicked off a February swing through Latin America by invoking the doctrine as a warning to China to lay off the heavy economic investments in the region. Before taking his White House job, National Security Adviser John Bolton implored Mr. Trump to 鈥渞eassert the Monroe Doctrine鈥� 鈥� which he lamented as a 鈥渃asualty of the Obama years鈥� 鈥� to halt 鈥淩ussian meddling鈥� in America鈥檚 backyard.
And while Trump has not invoked the doctrine by name, his threat last year to send the military to take care of Venezuela鈥檚 upheaval and his recent call for US troops on the border with Mexico both hark back to the policy鈥檚 corollary: America鈥檚 assumed right to intervene in its sphere of influence.
Now, as Vice President Mike Pence prepares to stand in for Trump at this weekend鈥檚 Summit of the Americas in Lima, Peru, the region is wondering which America to expect, both at the regional gathering and under the Trump administration.
Will it be the America of partnership and engagement in the summit鈥檚 long-term goals of hemispheric prosperity and democratic governance 鈥� or the 鈥淢onroe鈥� America of nationalist economics, confrontational diplomacy 鈥� and even military intervention?
Dwindling US influence
The Monroe Doctrine鈥檚 resurrection, even if only as a rhetorical tool, is likely to mean a wary and even suspicious summit reception for Mr. Pence, some regional analysts say. Moreover, add others, any attempt by the US to browbeat its Latin neighbors over economic ties to China is certain to be received with a collective 鈥淭oo late!鈥�
鈥淚f [the US] goes down there with the traditional mindset that Latin America is 鈥榦ur鈥� sphere of influence 鈥� it鈥檚 going to repel the leaders at the summit and relations are going to continue to deteriorate,鈥� says Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank that promotes democracy and social equity in the region. 鈥淭he administration needs to understand the realities in the region,鈥� he adds, 鈥渁mong which is the dwindling influence of the United States.鈥�
In the run-up to the summit, senior administration officials have been hammering home the message that the region should stick with the US and resist the siren song of Chinese trade and investment.
鈥淭he United States should remain the partner of choice鈥� for countries from Mexico to Chile and Argentina, one official told journalists in a pre-summit briefing last week. In particular, China鈥檚 trade model has 鈥渘ot been productive for the hemisphere,鈥� the official said.
Yet for many regional experts, the warnings emanating from the administration over China鈥檚 deep economic engagement across the region are akin to closing the proverbial barn door after the horses have escaped: It鈥檚 simply too late.
The region鈥檚 reaction to the stepped-up China-bashing is 鈥渁 collective eye roll,鈥� says Margaret Myers, director of the Latin America and the World Program at the Inter-American Dialogue. With China already the top trading partner of numerous Latin American countries, including regional giant Brazil, any US efforts to demonize China will fall on deaf ears, experts say.
Tall order for Pence
Trump鈥檚 last-minute decision to stay in Washington and have Pence fill in for him at the summit 鈥� the eighth since President Clinton hosted the inaugural regional gathering in Miami in 1994 鈥� is likely to further dent US standing in the region, analysts say.
Not that Pence is disliked or dismissed in Latin America. The vice president toured the region in August, and reports filtered out that leaders from a number of countries appreciated Pence鈥檚 efforts to allay regional fears stoked by Trump鈥檚 repeated threats to use the 鈥渕ilitary option鈥� in Venezuela.
That said, Pence has made clear since being tapped to stand in for Trump that addressing Venezuela remains a top priority for the US. In a statement Tuesday laying out his summit priorities, the vice president said he looked forward to 鈥渨orking with our close allies in Latin America to collectively hold undemocratic actors in the region accountable for their actions.鈥�
That was a clear reference to Venezuelan President Nicol谩s Maduro, who has been disinvited from the summit by host Peru (Mr. Maduro has threatened to show up anyway).
But no one substitutes for the US president, analysts note, especially at a summit that no US president has missed since the triennial gatherings began. And with the White House stating that Trump is staying home to coordinate a US response to the Syrian chemical weapons attack and to 鈥渕onitor鈥� other world events, summit leaders are likely to double down on the deepening perception that American interest in the region and its leadership capacity are waning.
Pence will also have to try to smooth feathers ruffled by the president鈥檚 rhetoric concerning America鈥檚 backyard 鈥� and as analysts point out, most of Trump鈥檚 references to the southern neighbors have been negative, even aggressive.
鈥淢exico is often a punching bag in the pronouncements of this president, and that reverberates much beyond Mexico into the region,鈥� says Jason Marczak, director of the Atlantic Council鈥檚 Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center in Washington.
Indeed Trump鈥檚 threats to militarize the US-Mexico border and his recent tweets renewing his claim that migrants from the south include large numbers of rapists only cement the view shared by many Latin Americans: that with Trump, a nastier Uncle Sam is back. (A recent Gallup poll found that 16 percent of Latin Americans approve of Trump鈥檚 performance in office.)
Dealing with US versus China
The irony of the slide in US-Latin relations is that most of America鈥檚 southern neighbors aspire to a productive partnership with the US, analysts say.
鈥淭he truth is that if they have a choice, most in Latin America would prefer to deal with the US, certainly over China,鈥� says Mr. Shifter. 鈥淭he problem is that the US isn鈥檛 offering a lot in the way of investments and other incentives, and China is.鈥�
The US needs to understand, he adds, that 鈥淟atin America is not wild about the Chinese model, but the leaders do want to reduce poverty and deliver greater prosperity鈥� 鈥� things that were once more clearly offered by close ties to the US.
Shifter says the summit Pence will attend does offer the US the chance to turn things around 鈥� for example by robust engagement in regional efforts to address the summit鈥檚 theme of battling corruption through strengthened democratic governance. The US could also enhance its image by spurring a cooperative regional approach to the Venezuelan crisis, he adds.
The White House also announced Wednesday that presidential adviser Ivanka Trump will take part in the summit to launch a new regional initiative fostering women鈥檚 economic empowerment.
Mr. Marczak notes that with an estimated 5,000 Venezuelans fleeing daily to neighboring Colombia and Brazil to escape economic collapse and political repression, some regional approach to what risks becoming a refugee crisis of global proportions should top the summit鈥檚 agenda.
The trick for the US will be to realize that, whether it鈥檚 about addressing Venezuela or the entire region, it can no longer impose its will or apply a one-size-fits-all policy to Latin America, regional experts say.
鈥淭he notion [from the first Summit of the Americas] of cementing some broad hemispheric consensus and putting 35 governments on the same page just isn鈥檛 going to happen in this day and age,鈥� says Shifter. 鈥淭he US has an important role to play, and the deterioration of relations with the region isn鈥檛 doomed to continue,鈥� he adds. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 safe to say a turnaround won鈥檛 come from some nostalgia for the Monroe Doctrine.鈥�
