Venezuelan opposition scores surprise win. But don't count Chavismo out.
| Mexico City
Venezuela鈥檚 political opposition rode a wave of economic discontent in听Sunday鈥檚听elections to win the majority of legislative seats for the first time in 16 years. It鈥檚 a historic shift for the oil-rich nation that鈥檚 spent the past nearly two decades under a socialist regime that had few checks on its power.
The electoral earthquake will give the opposition more control over public spending听and a platform to demand amnesties听for political prisoners,听including its own leaders.听The final tally of seats is still underway, but if the opposition wins听two-thirds (112 posts) of the National Assembly, it could possibly appoint new judges, or even launch a recall of embattled President Nicol谩s Maduro in 2016.听
The opposition鈥檚 victory marks the beginning of 鈥渁 new political reality in Venezuela,鈥� says Dimitris Pantoulas, a Caracas-based political consultant. 鈥淣o one can say these elections will define the future, but [the results] open the door to change.鈥�
But short-term outlook could be bumpy: The ruling party still holds the presidency and have other tools to resist meddling by the opposition-controlled legislature.
鈥淭his [victory] opens a window for the two sides to try and work together, but it鈥檚 not the final solution to the polarization and the very big problems Venezuela is facing,鈥� says Mr. Pantoulas.
It's the economy...
Venezuela鈥檚 National Electoral Council announced early听Monday听morning that the opposition coalition, the Mesa de la Unidad Democratica (MUD), had secured 99 seats in the National Assembly, while the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) won 46 seats. Some 22 posts听haven鈥檛 been called yet.
Maduro quickly calmed fears of electoral violence by acknowledging the results.听鈥淲e recognize and accept these adverse outcomes,鈥� he said, blaming the results on an 鈥渆conomic war.鈥�
Few dispute that Venezuela鈥檚 oil-dependent economy is at sea. Inflation is estimated at over 100 percent, and there are widespread shortages of basic goods. President Maduro took over in 2013 from the late President听Hugo Ch谩vez, whose 14 years in office coincided with record-high oil prices, which allowed him to听shower money on the country鈥檚 long-ignored poor. The political machine that Chavez built is crumbling as the petro-dollars dry up.
But Sunday鈥檚听vote does not necessarily mark approval for the opposition coalition. It was more about the economy.
鈥淭he problems of inflation and shortages aren鈥檛 new, but they are definitely worse鈥� since the 2013 presidential election, where Maduro won by less than two percentage points, says Christopher Sabatini, an adjunct professor at The School for International and Public Affairs at Columbia University.
A record 74 percent of the voting-age population came out to cast their ballot听Sunday 鈥� the highest turnout since 1993, when voting was required by law.听
鈥淚鈥檝e seen a prosperous and powerful country and today that鈥檚 only a memory,鈥� says Mar铆a Ortiz, who marked her 100th birthday on election day in Caracas, where she voted for the opposition. 鈥淎ll elections are important, and even more so when one suffers what is happening.鈥�
Given the recent economic upheaval, 鈥渁lmost by default [the opposition] was handed a platform in this election, which is 鈥榳e aren鈥檛 as economically incompetent as the past governments,鈥欌�� Sabatini says.听
Some 85 percent of Venezuelans are dissatisfied with the direction the country is going, according to the Pew Research Center.
But not everyone is convinced that鈥� "anything" is better than the present leadership.
Jos茅 Mart铆nez, a retired singer who voted for the ruling party yesterday says he鈥檚 seen how far the country听鈥媓as come听under Chavismo. 鈥淚 know that we are in bad times right now, but what we need to do is fix those problems, not erase all that was achieved鈥� over the past 17 years. 鈥淚f you give the opposition a finger they鈥檒l take your entire arm,鈥� Mr. Mart铆nez says.
The opposition offered few concrete policy ideas in the leadup to the vote, and the coalition, which is made up of over a dozen parties, is fractious and divided. The opposition has long been haunted by its role 鈥� tangential or direct 鈥� with past political blunders. That includes some politicians backing a failed 2002 coup against Ch谩vez, and a 2005 boycott of legislative elections, which sent a message that the opposition viewed simply checking out of the political process as a solution.
鈥淭his [win] is an opportunity [for the opposition] to be both [pragmatic] and to have a chance to be protagonists in a positive way, instead of denouncing Maduro or taking to the streets in protest,鈥� Sabatini says. 鈥淭he problem is, are they ready to do that?鈥�
'Divided for years'
Although the opposition victory is a serious setback for Maduro and the nearly two-decade run of Chavismo, its impact could be limited by whether or not they have a two-thirds majority听in the legislature.
The ruling PSUV holds near total-control of other branches of the government, and could tap into that to curb how far opposition lawmakers can go with vetoes or legislative reforms. And some fear the government could take steps to weaken the National Assembly before the new term begins in January, by having outgoing听ruling-party lawmakers vote to give the president special powers of decree.
鈥淲e have been divided for years,鈥� a spokesman for the opposition coalition, Jesus Torrealba, said in a speech Monday. 鈥淭here is no majority here that wants to flatten the minority.鈥�
鈥⑻齎铆ctor Amaya contributed reporting from Caracas
