Can Nigerian 鈥榥ew broom鈥� candidate sweep the youth vote?
| Lagos, Nigeria
It鈥檚 mid-morning on Wednesday in Lagos, Nigeria鈥檚 commercial capital, as Prosper Uka sidles up to a group of women standing in a crowd outside a bank.
Have they heard of a man named Peter Obi? he asks, shouting to be heard over the roar of motorcycle engines and honking cars on the busy road nearby. Mr. Obi is a candidate for president of Nigeria, Mr. Uka explains, and he鈥檚 going to make sure they never end up in a mess like this again.
The women nod. They鈥檙e listening. Like the others in this group, they鈥檝e been waiting for hours in the Lagos heat, hoping to withdraw a few dollars from the bank. As Saturday鈥檚 presidential election approaches, Nigeria is in the grip of a massive cash shortage caused by a bungled rollout of new banknotes. It has left many people unable to access their money, and without the means to buy anything.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onPeter Obi鈥檚 outsider presidential campaign has caught the mood of young people, pledging clean governance and a fresh eye. But will the 鈥淥bidients鈥� turn out in sufficient numbers to elect him?
If voters in Africa鈥檚 most populous country weren鈥檛 already fed up, they are now. So when Mr. Uka begins to describe a presidential candidate who will change all this, who promises to make life in Nigeria a little easier, the women lean in closer.
鈥淢ake a vote for LP. Labour Party. Peter Obi,鈥� he says.
The stakes of Mr. Uka鈥檚 canvassing campaign could hardly be higher. For the first time since military rule ended in Nigeria in 1999, a third-party presidential candidate, Mr. Obi, has a genuine shot at victory. His candidacy has been propelled by his popularity with people in their 20s and early 30s, who make up nearly 40% of the country鈥檚 93 million registered voters. They could prove decisive.
In a country with a median age of 18 and the on earth, Mr. Obi鈥檚 popularity alone sends a resounding political message. This is no longer a country for old men.聽聽
鈥淰oting is like a step for me to liberation,鈥� says Chizaram Ebegbulem, a political science student at the University of Lagos. 鈥淚 know that Peter Obi has the youths鈥� interests at heart.鈥�
鈥淣ever had it so bad鈥�
It鈥檚 not that Mr. Obi, who is 61, is particularly youthful himself, though he is the youngest major presidential candidate by a decade. But in a country where young people have been pushed to the periphery by unemployment, corruption, and police brutality, Mr. Obi鈥檚 promises of clean governance and an outsider鈥檚 perspective have caught the imagination of a generation. His supporters call themselves his 鈥淥bidients.鈥澛�
鈥淣igeria today is at a critical juncture, and the people, led by the youths brutalized by bad leadership, are awake and leading the movement to transform Nigerian politics,鈥� Mr. Obi said at Chatham House, a think tank in London, last month.聽
He is campaigning to succeed Muhammadu Buhari, who is in many ways a textbook example of Nigeria鈥檚 old guard. At 80 years old, he was the country鈥檚 military dictator in the mid-1980s, before becoming the democratically elected president in 2015. His eight-year administration has been marred by violent insecurity and a shuddering economy in Africa鈥檚 most populous country. During his presidency, the country has undergone and . In recent weeks, a sudden change to new banknotes has caused a massive shortage of cash, preventing people from buying basics such as food, water, and bus fares.
鈥淚 know Nigerians always say we have never had it so bad, but truly, truly, as nearly everyone will tell you, we have never had it so bad,鈥� says Sully Abu, a Lagos-based journalist and co-founder of FrontFoot Media Initiative, a journalism nonprofit. In that context, he says, Mr. Obi 鈥渉as fired the popular imagination.鈥�
Historically, Nigeria鈥檚 presidency has bounced between Mr. Buhari鈥檚 party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), and its rival People鈥檚 Democratic Party (PDP). The APC鈥檚 candidate for president this year, former Lagos state Gov. Bola Tinubu, is literally campaigning on the slogan 鈥淚t鈥檚 my turn.鈥� And the PDP has put forward former Vice President Akitu Abubakar, who has run for president five times before. Like about half of Nigeria鈥檚 population, both men are Muslim, as is Mr. Buhari.聽
In this context, Mr. Obi has successfully marketed himself as new blood. He is a 海角大神 running on the ticket of the Labour Party, a lesser-known party with minimal representation in the Senate or House of Representatives.
鈥淗e is the candidate that the major candidates did not take seriously, but as time has gone on, it has proved a fatal error on their part,鈥� says Tunde Ajileye, a Lagos-based partner at SBM Intelligence, a geopolitical research consultancy.聽
Will young people turn out?
For a so-called outsider, Mr. Obi has a long track record in Nigerian politics. He was governor of his home state of Anambra, in Nigeria鈥檚 southeast, for nearly a decade. And in 2019, he ran as the PDP鈥檚 vice presidential candidate.聽
Still, young Nigerians have been energized by his promises to clean up corruption and create jobs.聽
鈥淧eople want something different,鈥� says Amaka Anku, head of Africa Practice at Eurasia Group, a geopolitical risk firm based in Washington, D.C. 鈥淭hey feel like the old rulers have not brought development.鈥�
For many, the tipping point came in October 2020, when young people launched mass protests seeking the disbandment of a police unit notorious for harassment, illegal arrests and detentions, rape, extortion, and extrajudicial killings. The movement quickly expanded to include demands for better governance. At least 51 civilians and 18 members of the security forces were killed in the protests.聽
At the time, Mr. Obi publicly expressed , known locally by the hashtag #EndSARS after the name of the rogue police unit. And as a presidential candidate, he has made it part of his promise to 狈颈驳别谤颈补.听
Going into voting day, some have Mr. Obi leading the presidential race. To win in the first round, a candidate must garner the most votes, including at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the country鈥檚 36 states and the capital, Abuja. So a runoff election is a possibility.
Experts say that to win the election, Mr. Obi will need a , many of whom have never voted before. Indeed, 84% of the 10 million people who registered to vote ahead of this election are .
Analysts also warn that a lack of strong party machinery may set Mr. Obi back. His main competitors鈥� older and more established parties have more local branches, women鈥檚 and youth groups, and 鈥� importantly for election day 鈥� agents stationed at polling centers to act as observers to the voting and counting processes.
鈥淚f you don鈥檛 have that, boots on the ground,鈥� cautions Ms. Anku, the Eurasia Group analyst, 鈥渋t is very difficult to turn voting intentions into votes.鈥�
The 鈥済ospel spreader鈥�
For some voters, that kind of existing political infrastructure is reassuring. Shola Adebanjo, a high school teacher in Ogun state, says Mr. Obi is a 鈥渟ocial media politician鈥� whose promises to voters are unrealistic. Mr. Tinubu, on the other hand, 鈥渋s ready to lead this country,鈥� he believes.聽
Mr. Obi is relying heavily on his informal network of 鈥淥bidients鈥� to turn out the vote for him Saturday. Mr. Uka, for instance, has a day job in printing on Victoria Island, the main business and financial center of Lagos. But he 鈥渟preads the gospel鈥� of Mr. Obi every chance he gets.
鈥淚 walk on the road, I do it. I stay with friends, I do it, I stay with family 鈥� every opportunity,鈥� he says.
At Lekki New Market, he approaches two hairstylists at an informal roadside salon. He shows them a mock ballot paper and explains to them how to identify Mr. Obi鈥檚 party and mark their vote.
Then he bends, turning to speak to the 2-year-old child of one of the women.
鈥淭here is hope for you,鈥� he tells him. 鈥淭ell your mummy, tell your daddy: vote Peter Obi.鈥�
Ikenna Omeje contributed reporting to this article.
