Prosperity or civil liberties? Tanzanian opposition demands both.
| Johannesburg
On the first full day he was president of Tanzania, in November 2015, John Magufuli walked unannounced into the country鈥檚 Ministry of Finance in Dar es Salaam and began asking questions.
鈥淲ho sits there?鈥� he asked, according to a , pointing to one of many empty desks in the ministry. 鈥淎nd who sits there, and there 鈥� and where are they now?鈥�
The message was clear. If you worked for Tanzania鈥檚 government, and you didn鈥檛 work hard, you were being put on notice. Over the next three years, Mr. Magufuli鈥檚 administration slashed 16,000 鈥済host workers鈥� from the government鈥檚 payroll, canceled foreign trips for public servants, and hundreds of thousands of dollars from an Independence Day celebration to cholera prevention efforts.
Why We Wrote This
Tanzanian President John Magufuli鈥檚 economic policies have borne fruit, but his crackdown on critics has galvanized the opposition. Can they carve out more space for democracy?
And his government鈥檚 austerity, he often repeated, was making Tanzania richer. In 2019, the World Bank the country 鈥渓ower middle income鈥� for the first time in its history.
But Dr. Magufuli鈥檚 well-earned reputation as 鈥渢he bulldozer鈥� extended beyond a no-nonsense approach to corruption and bureaucratic bloat. He also began shutting down media outlets and jailing critics. He cracked down on Tanzanians he deemed immoral, outlawing female contraceptives, banning pregnant girls from school and passing laws curtailing the rights of LGBTQ people.
Dr. Magufuli appears poised to sweep to victory again today in presidential elections fraught with allegations of suppression and intimidation of his opponents.聽
But if the results of the poll are more or less a foregone conclusion, observers say the election still marks an important moment for the country. In particular, the bold support that many Tanzanians have shown for the opposition, despite the risks, suggests that Dr. Magufuli鈥檚 bulldozing blend of economic austerity and political repression has begun to backfire, pushing more and more Tanzanians away from a party that has ruled the country since its independence in 1961.
鈥淭anzanians have been asked to choose between economic growth and civil liberties, and many of them rightly see that as an unfair choice,鈥� says Ringisai Chikohomero, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa, who studies Tanzanian politics. 鈥淪o you have many ... who celebrate being lifted out of poverty, but the consequence of that is that they鈥檝e also begun to demand more when it comes to political freedoms.鈥�
Those demands, during this election campaign, have been loud, with Tanzanians turning out by the thousands for opposition rallies. 鈥淲e鈥檙e looking at how far are we able to take this democratic notion. We鈥檙e asking what we want for our country, what kind of government, what kind of leadership,鈥� says Elsie Eyakuze, a political analyst and columnist in Dar es Salaam.
Those questions have generally been met with severe repression. Over the past five years, Dr. Magufuli鈥檚 government has shut down publications and critical of its policies. When the International Monetary Fund questioned data pointing to booming economic growth last year, Mr. Magufuli simply the release of its report.
Then, during the coronavirus pandemic, the government publications and journalists who challenged its official line 鈥� that it had completely contained the virus by May. (In fact, it had simply stopped recording new cases). Ahead of the election, Dr. Magufuli and assigned foreign journalists government minders to keep an eye on them. Earlier this week, police killed three people at an anti-government demonstration on the island of Zanzibar.
Meanwhile, Dr. Magufuli鈥檚 administration has tightened its grip on the country鈥檚 courts, limiting citizens鈥� ability to sue over unconstitutional laws, and making it possible to jail and deny bail to people charged with certain offenses 鈥� a tactic that is frequently used to wear down government critics.
鈥淵ou don鈥檛 win an election on the day of the vote. You win the day you start to make it impossible for the opposition to compete on equal footing,鈥� says Fatma Karume, the former head of the Tanganyika Law Society, the bar association for mainland Tanzania. She herself has tasted the government鈥檚 wrath: she was permanently for bringing an 鈥渦nprofessional and disrespectful鈥� case against the country鈥檚 attorney general.
At the same time, support for the opposition cannot be measured only by its percentage of the final vote tally, she says. Throughout the election season, Tanzanians have shown outspoken support for Dr. Magufuli鈥檚 main challenger, Tundu Lissu, of the Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) party, who was the target of an assassination attempt by unknown attackers in 2017 and campaigned this year with a bullet still lodged near his spine.
Mr. Lissu drew huge crowds to his campaign rallies despite government attempts to suppress them by tear-gassing supporters, briefly suspending his campaign in early October for using 鈥渟editious language,鈥� and seven members of the opposition youth wing for 鈥渞idiculing the national anthem and flag鈥� when they sang Tanzania鈥檚 national anthem while lifting their party flag.
It is nearly impossible to gauge the level of support for Chadema and Mr. Lissu, given the lack of credible and independent polling in Tanzania. However, the party won 42% of the vote in the last election, whose fairness was also disputed, and many point to the government鈥檚 suppression of opposition rallies and refusal to let many opposition parliamentary and local council candidates stand in today's elections as evidence that it is concerned about their rising power.
鈥淚n this campaign, Tanzanians have been saying that they deserve certain rights, and that they won鈥檛 be bullied out of them so easily,鈥� says Ms. Eyakuze, the political analyst. 鈥淪o if they want to attend a rally, they鈥檙e not willing to give up their right to do that just because the government is making it difficult.鈥�
Ms. Karume says she is hopeful those gestures of support for the opposition won鈥檛 be lost on Dr. Magufuli if he is elected to a second term.
鈥淚鈥檓 hoping he will recognize that people are demanding he change course,鈥� she says. 鈥淣ot selfishly, but for the sake of the country鈥檚 future.鈥�
