Trump, Sanders win in N.H. Democratic, Republican Parties lose.
If nothing else, the results of the New Hampshire primary were an epic defeat for the diverse coalitions that constitute the institutional Democratic and Republican parties.
Are the two big political organizations that have long governed America actually falling apart? That鈥檚 highly unlikely. But the Granite State vote surely shows that, in today鈥檚 wired world, party leaders may need to take more heed of restiveness in the ranks.
Consider what happened from the point of view of national committee office suites. On the Democratic side, the party鈥檚 long-preferred presidential contender 鈥� an experienced politician endorsed by many (if not most) top officials 鈥� lost to an independent senator who only recently signed up as a party member.
On the Republican side, a businessman and political neophyte loathed by a significant percentage of party members stomped the rest of the field. Oh, and he鈥檚 a former Democrat with suspiciously moderate positions on some key issues.
Some conservatives fear that if this candidate wins the nomination he could redefine the GOP鈥檚 ideology in his own image, possibly splitting the party in two, while leading it to a crushing defeat in the fall.
鈥淚f the results of the vote in New Hampshire鈥檚 Republican primary are not yet sending shudders down the spines of establishmentarian GOP voters and leaders, they are deluded,鈥� writes right-leaning Noah Rothman today .
What鈥檚 going on? Aren鈥檛 the parties, defined as a loose grouping of organizations and individuals with deep political interest, really in charge of picking presidential candidates?
That鈥檚 the thesis of the influential political science book, which holds that unelected insiders 鈥� lawmakers, lobbyists, consultants, partisan media, and so forth 鈥� effectively select candidates before voters reach the ballot box. They endorse candidates, raise money, and generally send lots of intramural messages that ensure they all coordinate around a favored choice.
The election of 2016 hasn鈥檛 disproved this idea, yet. But it has pointed out that party elites aren鈥檛 all-powerful in this regard. They鈥檙e not always able to work things out among themselves.
On the Democratic side, the party may yet triumph. Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming establishment choice. She scores 466 on the FiveThirtyEight data site鈥檚 endorsement tracker, which assigns points according to the status of who鈥檚 doing the endorsing. Bernie Sanders? His score is two.
Senator Sanders, a longtime independent, is more likely to call himself a 鈥渄emocratic socialist鈥� than a 鈥淒emocrat.鈥� His liberal ideology produced a smashing triumph in New Hampshire, a state with a high percentage of liberals.
Clinton is still favored to grind out a nomination victory, piling up delegates when the race turns to states with a higher percentage of moderate and minority voters, such as South Carolina. But her New Hampshire loss and tissue-thin victory in the Iowa caucuses show that鈥檚 no sure thing.
Her struggles make University of Miami political scientist Gregory Koger wonder why Democratic Party insiders coordinated on Clinton so strongly and so early.
鈥淥ne can never know, but it seems likely that some of the strong candidates who did not run, such as Elizabeth Warren or Joseph Biden, would do a better job of co-opting Sanders鈥檚 economic agenda while highlighting his weaknesses as a candidate,鈥� says Professor Koger in an e-mail.
But if Democratic Party insiders converged too soon on a candidate who鈥檚 turned out to be weak, their Republican counterparts have the opposite problem 鈥� they haven鈥檛 yet converged at all.
Much of the GOP elite knows whom they don鈥檛 like, of course. The National Review, an influential conservative journal, devoted virtually an entire issue to an anti-Donald Trump message. Others, such as former Sen. Bob Dole, say they dislike Ted Cruz so much that the unpredictable Mr. Trump might be preferable.
But the Republican Party as a whole has not rallied around an establishment champion to counter the insurgent threat. Jeb Bush? Too Bushian. Chris Christie? Bridgegate 鈥� and he dropped out anyway. John Kasich? A moderate squish, in some eyes.
Following his strong third-place finish in Iowa, Marco Rubio seemed the man for the moment. But the moment may have passed in the flash of a bad debate answer. Now the three remaining contenders for the so-called 鈥渆stablishment鈥� lane of the nomination process will stumble on toward South Carolina, and perhaps beyond, fighting each other while Trump and Cruz speed ahead.
Party coordination can go too far. That鈥檚 what used to happen. Much of today鈥檚 open nomination system, with its caucuses and primaries, stems from reforms made in the wake of the 1968 elections, when Hubert Humphrey won the Democratic nomination without appearing on a single state primary ballot.
But the rise of Trump, an unprecedented candidate who at times promises change that is not within the power of a president to deliver, shows what can happen in coordination鈥檚 absence.
鈥淜asich would be a fine nominee if Republicans would just coordinate on him,鈥� Jonathan Ladd, a political scientist at Georgetown University, said during a live blog of election results on Vox Tuesday night. 鈥淵ou hear me Republicans, coordinate! For the love of God, coordinate!!!!鈥�
