海角大神

It鈥檚 an unseasonably warm Saturday afternoon in December, and the circus is in town. That is, Donald Trump is here to perform in a 鈥渢own hall鈥� before the 4,200 people who have filled the Convocation Center at the University of South Carolina Aiken.聽

But the show isn鈥檛 just Mr. Trump. It is also the many raucous fans in 鈥淢ake America Great Again鈥� baseball caps and T-shirts who have come to see the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination. It is the vendors hawking buttons with messages about unleashing bombs on Islamic State. It is the Muslim activists and young anarchists here to disrupt and, inevitably, get tossed out of the arena.聽

And it is the other attention seekers 鈥� both pro- and anti-Trump 鈥� who have come to catch The Donald鈥檚 eye in quieter fashion, like bodybuilders Ronnie and Kathy Rowland with their 鈥淲e Pump for Trump鈥� poster and Tom O鈥橞rien, whose handmade sign says 鈥満＝谴笊駍 Love Muslims鈥� on one side and 鈥淟ove Your Neighbor鈥� on the other.聽

Like characters in a TV series, everyone plays his or her part and follows the script. In fact, Showtime has turned the entire 2016 race into a television reality show of sorts called 鈥淭he Circus,鈥� with weekly installments showing behind-the-scenes action and characters the audience identifies with and follows. 鈥淲ith Trump in the picture, it鈥檚 an obvious sell,鈥� says Walter Podrazik, coauthor of the book 鈥淲atching TV.鈥澛�

At the town hall in Aiken, Trump didn鈥檛 make much news 鈥� perhaps by design. Like any seasoned showman, the billionaire real estate mogul/reality TV star knows when to push and when to hang back. Days before, Trump had dropped the bombshell proposal to ban Muslims temporarily from entering the United States, and he was still reaping the reward 鈥� yet another bump in support from Republican voters.聽

If Trump wins the GOP nomination, he will have pulled off the political coup of the modern era: Through sheer force of personality and a message that both capitalizes on the public鈥檚 fears and mirrors them, an outsider with no experience in government will have taken over the Republican Party and placed himself, improbably, one step away from the presidency.聽

鈥淧resident Trump鈥� is no longer a long shot. But even if he falls short,聽his place in history is already sealed. He has shaken the Republican Party to its core, and taught the political class some hard lessons about American voters along the way.聽

Donald Trump, celebritician

In an important way, Trump鈥檚 campaign is not unique. Throughout American history, demagogues like Huey Long, George Wallace, and Pat Buchanan have seized voters鈥� attention with incendiary rhetoric and shaken their parties鈥� establishments. They have ridden populist waves amid times of insecurity, both economic and physical, and raised fear even as they sought to allay it. Trump, in that respect, is the latest in a grand American tradition.聽

And though he has never officially run for office before now, one can argue that Trump is not new to the game. In 1987, a 鈥淒raft Trump鈥� effort caught his attention 鈥� and, he said later, may have 鈥減lanted the seed.鈥� In 2000, Trump quit the Republican Party and launched an exploratory campaign for the White House under the Reform Party, founded by another outspoken businessman-turned-presidential-candidate, Ross Perot.聽

In 2011, once again a Republican, Trump did a test run as a presidential candidate, giving speeches in key early states, before opting out. But he foreshadowed the Trump candidacy of 2015-16, going long on bravado and short on policy detail.聽

Still, exploring a campaign and making a few speeches isn鈥檛 the same as actually running. And in a way, the success of Trump鈥檚 campaign shouldn鈥檛 be viewed through the lens of politics.

鈥淲hat鈥檚 unique and interesting about Trump, and what may sustain his candidacy, and what also changes the political landscape, is that Trump is not a politician,鈥� says cultural historian Neal Gabler. 鈥淗e鈥檚 the first celebrity to run for president.鈥�

Even Ronald Reagan, a Hollywood celebrity before getting into politics, established his bona fides for the Oval Office by first serving two terms as governor of California. Trump jumped into the 2016 presidential race with no political credentials. Even his executive experience as a billionaire businessman is less central to his political success than his celebrity, says Mr. Gabler. Voters know him as the star of the long-running reality TV show 鈥淭he Apprentice鈥� and from seeing his name plastered on buildings, not from what goes on inside the C-suite.

The word 鈥渃elebrity鈥� is often defined as 鈥渇amous for being famous鈥� 鈥� and like other celebrities of our time (see the Kardashians), Trump is a master at holding people鈥檚 attention.聽

鈥淐elebrity is a narrative form, and it鈥檚 sustained by narrative,鈥� says Gabler, author of the 1998 book 鈥淟ife the Movie: How Entertainment Conquered Reality.鈥� 鈥淭rump鈥檚 genius is that he鈥檚 always sustaining the narrative 鈥� every week, virtually every day.鈥�

The political process, too, is a narrative, an ongoing story of campaigning, debates, primaries, conventions, and finally, Election Day. 鈥淭rump is writing that story, and the other guys don鈥檛 get it,鈥� Gabler says. 鈥淭he other guys are playing the game by the old political rules.... Celebrities have their own terms. They can say whatever they want, and do whatever they want, because they鈥檙e not politicians.鈥澛�

This is not to diminish the role of Trump鈥檚 business success as a key selling point in his campaign. Voters often cite his ability 鈥渢o get things done鈥� when asked to explain their support. But the political graveyard is full of successful businessmen (like Mitt Romney) who lacked the charisma needed to generate excitement.

Add to the mix Trump鈥檚 innate ability to read the mood of a certain slice of the electorate 鈥� white, tea party-oriented, working-class voters 鈥� and deliver a message that resonates.

鈥淚t鈥檚 just a whole other reality TV show; it just so happens it鈥檚 on Fox or CNN,鈥� says Henry Barbour, Republican National Committeeman from Mississippi. 鈥淵ou turn on your TV in the morning, and Donald Trump鈥檚 face might not be there but you hear his voice, because he鈥檚 apparently sitting there in his slippers talking to some morning reporter.鈥�

Whether Trump can keep it up, blending the celebrity and political narratives, is an open question. What鈥檚 clear is that Trump jumped into a presidential cycle that seems tailor-made for his simple, self-assured style 鈥� with big promises that are light on detail and heavy on bombast 鈥� as Americans grapple with a future that feels uncertain.

鈥淓very election has a different dynamic,鈥� says Al Cardenas, former chairman of the American Conservative Union and a supporter of former Florida Republican Gov. Jeb Bush for president. 鈥淒onald Trump just hit the sweet spot.鈥澛�

Republican activists鈥� views are mixed on Trump鈥檚 lingering effect, if he鈥檚 not the nominee. Some say his nationalist appeal 鈥� and the ugly expressions of racism and xenophobia he has incited 鈥� will tarnish the party for years to come. Others say his impact will be limited. The eventual nominee will become the party鈥檚 standard-bearer, setting the tone and agenda for Republicans in the general election.聽

But if Trump wins the nomination, Mr. Cardenas says, 鈥渨e鈥檙e practically handing over to Hillary Clinton the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. His style of campaigning and the substance of his remarks further shrink our party at a time when it needs to demographically expand.鈥澛�

Fox Populi聽

At nearly every campaign event, Trump points at the reporters in the back of the hall and lets them have it, calling them 鈥渓iars鈥� and 鈥渟cum.鈥� At least he doesn鈥檛 wish them dead, he told people at a recent rally, but he made a show of considering the idea of killing reporters.聽

So when this reporter approached attendees at the Aiken event, it was with some trepidation. But only one wouldn鈥檛 talk. And of those who talked, only one wouldn鈥檛 give her name 鈥� a nurse who keeps her support for Trump quiet, because she says her colleagues would be upset if they knew about it. Most called themselves committed Trump supporters, and had ready answers to the question, 鈥淲hy?鈥�

鈥淏ecause he鈥檚 for America,鈥� says Mike Carroll, a mortgage underwriter from Aiken. 鈥淚鈥檓 tired of hearing people say what I want to hear just to get my vote. Donald Trump is genuine.鈥澛�

Mr. Carroll, in fact, disagrees with Trump鈥檚 idea of banning Muslims from entering the US. 鈥淏ut at least he means what he says. And I understand the fear. Every time I turn on the TV, there鈥檚 another terrorist attack.鈥澛�

Most of those interviewed liked the Muslim ban. 鈥淚f I had a belief that was dangerous to your family, would you let me in?鈥� says Sam Reid, a first responder, carrying his infant foster son. 鈥淭his is our home.鈥澛�

Then there鈥檚 Pam Newton, who鈥檚 still 鈥渃hecking Trump out,鈥� but loves the Muslim ban. In fact, she鈥檚 ready to go one step further and just 鈥渓ock down鈥� US borders altogether. 鈥淭here鈥檚 no way to screen [people], so we shouldn鈥檛 let anybody in,鈥� says Ms. Newton, an Aiken resident who works for a doctor.聽

Economic worries also loom large. Newton is upset about her child, who has racked up $200,000 in student loans. Carroll, the mortgage underwriter, says the economy around Aiken is 鈥渁 little shaky.鈥� But after the San Bernardino, Calif., attacks by a radicalized Muslim couple that killed 14 people on Dec. 2, fear of terrorism has shot to the top of voters鈥� concerns. And Trump鈥檚 numbers have only strengthened, both in South Carolina and nationally.聽

Ronnie Rowland, the bodybuilder with the 鈥淧ump for Trump鈥� sign, isn鈥檛 shy about expressing his views on Muslims, both at the Aiken event and in a follow-up e-mail.

鈥淚 believe the people that are calling Trump racist are very confused,鈥� he writes. 鈥淭hey are so worried about being politically correct or coming across as a bigot that they can鈥檛 see the big picture. These people obviously don鈥檛 understand that all of the male Muslims coming out of the Middle East who are for sharia law are radicals!鈥澛�

Tom O鈥橞rien, a children鈥檚 camp director from Columbia, S.C., disagrees. Standing at the back of Trump鈥檚 town hall, waging a silent protest, he holds a two-sided sign preaching love and tolerance toward Muslims. Midway through the event, Mr. O鈥橞rien hoists the sign and aims it straight at Trump. Security personnel confront him, but he鈥檚 not ejected from the hall 鈥� just moved off to the side.聽

After the event, O鈥橞rien explains that he鈥檚 concerned Trump鈥檚 anti-Muslim rhetoric could radicalize young people. But he doesn鈥檛 have much hope in any of the presidential candidates, of either party. 鈥淚 believe that Jesus is king, right now,鈥� he says, 鈥渁nd I just want to speak truth to power.鈥澛�

The mind beneath the hair

To understand Trump, the man himself suggests reading 鈥淭he Art of the Deal.鈥� His bestselling first book oozes self-confidence, via a list of business lessons that apply to his approach to politics, including think big, know your market, be flexible, and have fun.

鈥淢oney was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score,鈥� he writes. 鈥淭he real excitement is playing the game.鈥�

That Trump is super-competitive is well known, as were his father and grandfather, also both successful businessmen.聽

鈥淚t鈥檚 part of their family culture: Push the envelope, never give up, and keep going,鈥� says biographer Gwenda Blair, author of the newly reissued book 鈥淭he Trumps: Three Generations of Builders and a Presidential Candidate.鈥澛�

Another Trump rule: Never apologize. Even when caught red-handed saying something false, such as his assertion that 鈥渢housands鈥� of Muslims cheered in Jersey City after 9/11, Trump simply reaffirmed the claim. In multiple interviews with Trump, Ms. Blair also discovered that he can be remarkably unreflective about himself. When she asked how going to military school affected him, for example, all he would say is, 鈥淕ot a great education.鈥�

鈥淗e had no interest in looking back, he had no insight, he had no interest in his own history, he had no rear-view mirror. It was all going forward,鈥� says Blair. More recently, though, Trump has opened up to the press about his brother Freddy, who was an alcoholic and died young.

And his worldview has always been about winning and losing. 鈥淗e鈥檚 a winner, everyone else is a loser 鈥� that鈥檚 it,鈥� she says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not about compassion, it鈥檚 not about empathy, it鈥檚 not about understanding, it鈥檚 not about being part of a community or having a social contract or consensus or inclusivity. None of that. It鈥檚 about winning.鈥�

Blair describes Trump as a 鈥渞eal micromanager.鈥� 鈥淗is father was relentless, and famous for being relentless, on every tiny detail,鈥� says Blair. 鈥淒onald鈥檚 exactly the same. He does not delegate much.鈥澛�

That鈥檚 not to say that Trump, clearly a shrewd operator, couldn鈥檛 learn to delegate if he were to become president, appointing people who would carry out his broad policy outlines. But he might find the glacial pace of government frustrating. And the politics of the presidency, including dealing with Congress, would be a whole new world for him.聽

Then there鈥檚 the hair, his most distinguishing physical feature, which Trump himself makes fun of 鈥� and which everyone else is allowed to mock, too. That鈥檚 by design, Blair says.聽

鈥淚t鈥檚 irresistible,鈥� she says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 also insidiously disarming. It makes people in the audience feel, 鈥榃e鈥檙e all in this joke together, this kind of caricature of a guy.鈥� But at the end of the day, he鈥檚 still in charge. He鈥檚 the guy who closes the deal.鈥澛�

Is Trump even a Republican?聽

Trump鈥檚 improbable rise in the polls is based on a series of vague promises: He鈥檚 going to build a big wall on the Southern border, and make Mexico pay for it. He鈥檚 going to ban foreign Muslims from entering the US, at least temporarily. He鈥檚 going to 鈥渕ake America great again.鈥澛�

Talk to a member of the 鈥淩epublican establishment鈥� about Trump, and the frustration is palpable. Nearly three years after the GOP issued a 100-page 鈥渁utopsy鈥� on what went wrong in the 2012 election, some of the report鈥檚 key goals seem as distant as ever, including the call for comprehensive immigration reform and outreach to women, minorities, and young voters.

Mr. Barbour of Mississippi, one of the authors of the 2013 report, insists Trump hasn鈥檛 hijacked the Republican Party, but when asked if Trump is a 鈥渓oyal Republican,鈥� he doesn鈥檛 hesitate: 鈥淥f course not!鈥�

鈥淗e鈥檚 a very successful guy who鈥檚 had different views from Democrat to Republican, liberal to conservative on lots of different issues, and I think he suits himself and suits his own purposes,鈥� says Barbour.

Indeed, under different circumstances, Trump might well have run third-party. Ditto Bernie Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont running for the Democratic nomination. But in America鈥檚 two-party system, the only way to make the debates 鈥� and chart a serious path to the presidency 鈥� is by running for one of the major-party nominations.

Trump is, in a way, apolitical. At times, he has sounded like President Obama, as when he spoke positively about 鈥渟ingle-
payer,鈥� government-run health care, a model that both Trump and Mr. Obama say is no longer doable here. He has donated to Democrats as much as Republicans, because that鈥檚 what businesspeople do 鈥� they hedge their bets.聽

鈥淚 tell Trump supporters that he gave money to [Democrats] Terry McAuliffe and Rahm Emanuel and they just shrug,鈥� says a young conservative activist, shaking her head in disbelief.聽

That Trump isn鈥檛 a typical politician is well established. He doesn鈥檛 play by the rules, because he doesn鈥檛 have to. As a billionaire willing to spend his own money, he鈥檚 not dependent on donors, and as a celebrity, he鈥檚 shameless in his ability to attract attention 鈥� and play the media.聽

But even if Trump exists outside conventional politics, the other candidates can still learn a thing or two from him, Republicans say.聽

鈥淚 think the enduring lesson of Trump is going to be his plain-speaking way against political correctness, and I think Ben Carson has done that, too,鈥� says Ari Fleischer, former press secretary to President George W. Bush and coauthor of the GOP鈥檚 2013 autopsy. 鈥淭he call to ban Muslims in my book goes way too far and is wrong, but it shouldn鈥檛 surprise people, when the public is so anti-politician, for the public to reward someone who doesn鈥檛 talk like a politician.鈥澛�

Mr. Fleischer warns that if Trump were to win the nomination he would 鈥渢otally change鈥� what it is to be a Republican. 鈥淚t becomes an anti-trade party. It becomes Donald Trump鈥檚 personality,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a lot of things I don鈥檛 like and I鈥檓 uncomfortable with.鈥澛�

But Fleischer says Trump would bring 鈥渟omething the Republicans have wanted for decades, and that is greater appeal to working-class Americans, including Democrats and independents.鈥�

Barbour, too, focuses on Trump鈥檚 simple style.聽

鈥淭rump talks to people in everyday terms that people get; he doesn鈥檛 try to get too far down into the weeds,鈥� says Barbour.

In that respect, Trump is following the 2008 playbook of then-Sen. Barack Obama, who rode a vague message of 鈥渉ope and change鈥� all the way to the White House. Today, voters are ready for change again, but Trump鈥檚 marketing of hope and change is strikingly different. He starts not from a Reaganesque place of smiling optimism, but from the scowling visage he often wears in public 鈥� and which graces the cover of his latest book, a campaign manifesto called 鈥淐rippled America.鈥澛�

Trump begins the book by discussing why he chose a photo that is 鈥渟o angry and so mean looking.鈥� He could have used a 鈥渂eautiful鈥� picture, he writes, but decided it wouldn鈥檛 be appropriate 鈥� because the nation is 鈥渃rippled.鈥� The solution? Elect him, and President Trump will make America great again.聽

Trump is nothing if not relentlessly on message, another lesson for politicians: Know what your campaign is about, and pound that message home until everyone can recite the words along with you.

But what鈥檚 also clear is that Trump has tapped into a strain of xenophobic thought that critics decry as un-American and has also given oxygen to fringe elements, including white nationalists.

This blaming of the 鈥渙ther鈥� 鈥� today, it鈥檚 Muslims and Mexicans 鈥� and calls for action, such as the Muslim ban and perhaps a registry of Muslims, have led to charges that Trump is a fascist, marching to the same tune as France鈥檚 National Front leader Marine Le Pen and Hungary鈥檚 right-wing populist prime minister, Viktor Orb谩n. Protest cries of 鈥渇ascist鈥� are standard fare at Trump rallies.聽

The difference, though, between Trump and the European nationalists is that Trump doesn鈥檛 adhere to a well-defined ideology. His brand is more 鈥淭witter populism鈥� than 鈥淭rump doctrine.鈥澛�

鈥淗e鈥檚 demonstrated that he鈥檚 quite adept and instinctive at playing on the fears of people,鈥� says Cardenas. 鈥淓very time he鈥檚 had the opportunity to say something outlandish, and which plays on the fears of the primary electorate, it鈥檚 further enhanced his campaign.鈥�

How far Trump will go remains the great mystery of 2016. Every time the pundits declare his support has hit a ceiling, it rises. Then there鈥檚 the question of whether he can inspire previous nonvoters to caucus and vote for him 鈥� new voters who could prove the pollsters wrong yet again. Data show that certain types of Democrats 鈥� those who are registered as Democrats but self-identify as Republicans 鈥� are his strongest supporters. But one metric, Trump鈥檚 big crowds, doesn鈥檛 guarantee anything. Many in attendance are still shopping for a candidate, or from out-of-state, or there just to 鈥渟ee history,鈥� as software engineer Jim Thomas put it at the Aiken rally. Questions also persist about how well-organized Trump is on get-out-the-vote.

So far, though, the candidate has defied convention at every turn, and only gotten stronger. One test will be how he handles losing, if he does, in the kickoff Iowa caucuses. After all, Trump is all about winning. But biographer Blair sees plenty of examples from Trump鈥檚 past of when he 鈥渓ost鈥� 鈥� start with the four bankruptcies and the ill-fated ownership of a professional football team 鈥� but just kept plowing forward. No shame, no regrets.聽

Many observers expected that Trump would have faded by now amid questions about his electability. His celebrity candidacy would have given way to more conventional politicians, the thinking went.聽

鈥淣ormally, you reach critical mass where people wake up 鈥� the lights come up in the theater, and they say, 鈥楧o we really want this?鈥� 鈥� says Gabler, the cultural historian. 鈥淭hat may still happen.鈥澛�

Or it may not.聽

The narrative of Trump as superhero, who can swoop in and fix all problems, still has a grip on a sizable chunk of the Republican electorate. And disgust with politics as usual may be strong enough to win him the GOP nomination 鈥� and perhaps even the White House.聽