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Donald Trump is likely to win the New Hampshire primary. Let鈥檚 stop a second to let that sink in.

A year ago that seemed an impossible accomplishment. Six months ago it looked highly improbable. Now it鈥檚 maybe inevitable 鈥� Mr. Trump has a 17-point lead in the final RealClearPolitics rolling average of New Hampshire state polls.

Yes, you never know until actual voting starts, and in early primary states lots of voters make up their minds at the last minute. Tomorrow we might be opining about how surprise winner John Kasich shocked the world.

But right now it appears the blustery businessman will actually triumph in a storied electoral contest. If he does, congratulations to him. What happens next?

Given how wrong we鈥檝e been about Trump in the past we鈥檙e leery of making a hard prediction. However, there are warning signs in New Hampshire and other early voting states that indicate the Trump phenomenon may have peaked and he鈥檚 vulnerable to a rival or rivals who can consolidate anti-Trump sentiment.

The first is that he seems to have hit his voter ceiling. He鈥檚 pulling in about 30 percent of the New Hampshire GOP electorate, according to polls, and he needs to do better than that down the line if he鈥檚 going to win.

Why? Because winnowing works. Two or three candidates are likely to drop out following the Granite State vote. More will follow after the Republican South Carolina primary on Feb. 20. By the end of March, it鈥檚 quite likely that the GOP race will be down to Trump, Ted Cruz, and one (or two) party establishment favorites to be named later.

If Trump鈥檚 ceiling is 30 percent, he can鈥檛 win in a two, or even three-person race. And in the of major surveys he鈥檚 now dropped to 29.5 percent.

Second, Trump鈥檚 firewall, the South, is beginning to look less Trumpian. Though it has many lower-income, less-educated voters, a group disproportionately drawn to the real estate magnate, the most recent polls show him slipping in key Southern states.

He still leads in Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina, but his numbers are down in all three and below 30 percent in all cases, notes . He鈥檚 tied for second in Arkansas, behind Ted Cruz.

鈥淎ny one of these surveys in isolation wouldn鈥檛 be a big deal for Trump 鈥� But the fact that he鈥檚 under 30 percent in four Southern states suggests that he鈥檚 vulnerable in the region,鈥� writes FiveThirtyEight鈥檚 poll expert Harry Enten.

Third, Trump鈥檚 been exposed as a loser, as well as (maybe) a winner. His surprisingly poor showing in the Iowa caucuses punctured the myth of a Trump steamroller winning all the way to the Cleveland national convention.

All this doesn鈥檛 mean Trump is doomed. We鈥檝e learned our lesson about predicting his inevitable Icarus-like fall.

What it does mean is that Trump鈥檚 way forward is unclear. And when the end comes for a candidate in a primary race, it comes quickly. A surprise New Hampshire defeat, for instance, would be a Trump disaster.

鈥淟osing a presidential primary is often like going bankrupt. It happens slowly, then all at once,鈥� wrote Vox founder Ezra Klein last month might lose.