Rand Paul vs. Ted Cruz: Who's winning tea party voters?
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| Washington
Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Ted Cruz of Texas are both favorites of the tea party wing of the Republican Party. If both run for president in 2016, as seems likely at the moment, they鈥檇 vie for the same conservative voters as a base upon which to build a winning GOP primary coalition.
Given that potential White House candidates are jockeying right now for support from key donors and party figures, it鈥檚 not too early to ask this question: Which of these two men is currently winning the most tea party support?
Despite their similar electoral roots, they are very different politicians, of course. And they鈥檙e taking two different roads to building name recognition and support in advance of the official White House race.
The libertarian-oriented Senator Paul is emphasizing his vision of a changed, more inclusive Republican Party. And he鈥檚 doing so in a pretty blunt way. , Paul said the GOP will not win the White House again in his lifetime absent radical change.
鈥淎nd it has to be a transformation. Not a little tweaking at the edges,鈥 Paul told Mr. Beck in a segment aired on TheBlazeTV.
That means some kind of immigration reform, though Paul hasn鈥檛 outlined specifics on this issue beyond opposition to the indefinite jailing of detainees.
鈥淚f you want to work and you want a job and you want to be part of America, we鈥檒l find a place for you,鈥 Paul said in an .
Deemphasizing the war on drugs could win support in minority communities, which have a disproportionate share of their population jailed on drug charges, according to Paul. When the Kentucky senator speaks before audiences of young voters, he talks about civil liberties, not taxes.
Senator Cruz is taking a more confrontational approach. Where Paul has endorsed minority leader Mitch McConnell against a tea party primary opponent, angering some conservatives, Cruz won鈥檛 support Texas colleague Sen. John Cornyn (R), who also faces a tea party primary challenge.
Cruz clashed openly with establishment GOP leaders last week when he forced them to break his filibuster to allow a final vote on a bill to raise the national debt ceiling. Senator McConnell had hoped the legislation would pass without Republican fingerprints, avoiding a messy fight that might spook financial markets.
Afterwards, the Lone Star lawmaker was unrepentant. Lots of GOP senators misrepresented their intentions to constituents, he said, vowing they鈥檇 fight the debt ceiling when they had no intention of doing any such thing.
鈥淚t鈥檚 like they think the American people are just a bunch of rubes, that we don鈥檛 remember what they say,鈥 Cruz told conservative radio talk host Mark Levin late last week.
Such defiance thrills insurgent-minded conservatives. that Cruz is so popular in Texas that a number of Republican candidates now prominently feature photos of themselves with Cruz on their web sites 鈥 even though Cruz hasn鈥檛 actually endorsed them.
As for Paul, his endorsement of establishment leader McConnell shows he鈥檚 bailed on bringing big change to Washington,
鈥淲hen it comes to actual accomplishments that have changed the way things are done in Washington or even within the Senate GOP caucus, Paul鈥檚 cabinet is pretty empty,鈥 writes Mr. Wolf.
But here鈥檚 the kicker: Right now Paul leads Cruz in polls of GOP voters. has Paul as the presidential nominee choice of 11.2 percent of Republicans, as opposed to 8.2 percent for Cruz.
Paul appears to have an edge among conservative and tea party voters as well, though the data here is a bit thin. In , 10 percent of self-described tea party supporters picked Paul as their presidential choice. Nine percent picked Cruz. Paul won eight percent of 鈥渟trong Republicans鈥 in the McClatchy data; Cruz won six percent, which is within the poll margin of error.听
has similar results. Among self-described 鈥渧ery conservative鈥 voters, Paul bests Cruz as a nominee choice by 15 to 11 percent. (Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee beats both men in this category with 20 percent of the 鈥渧ery conservative鈥 respondents.)
PPP finds Paul鈥檚 favorability ratings higher than Cruz鈥檚 among conservative voters, as well.
It鈥檚 early yet, though, and these results might just reflect the fact that Rand Paul鈥檚 father Ron Paul ran for president last time around and the family brand remains well-known in GOP circles. It鈥檒l be interesting to see how the Paul/Cruz matchup develops in months ahead.