海角大神

Who鈥檚 up and who鈥檚 down in the race for the 2016 GOP nomination? Don鈥檛 blame us for asking 鈥� that contest is well under way whether voters like it or not. As we and many others have written, right now US politics is in the midst of the 鈥渋nvisible primary,鈥� in which big donors, campaign consultants, and top party figures line up behind their candidates of choice. They鈥檙e setting the table before the entertaining feast of the actual primaries begins.

That said, some new ratings are out that we find pretty interesting. They鈥檙e from the of the always quotable Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. He chops the Republican field into layers, and in his top tier Dr. Sabato puts New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (No. 3, and falling); Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky (No. 2, and rising); and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin (No. 1, and 鈥渉uh鈥�?).

That鈥檚 right, Gov. Scott Walker. Remember him? He鈥檚 a hero to the right for winning a big victory in Wisconsin by limiting the bargaining powers of some public-sector labor unions. 鈥淐rystal Ball鈥� likes his combination of executive experience, tea party bona fides, and political resilience. But it鈥檚 possible he鈥檇 be unpalatable to national voters, write Sabato and co-political scientists Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley.

鈥淲e like Walker鈥檚 potential as a candidate, but just because he tops our list doesn鈥檛 make him the frontrunner: This is a very big and fluid field,鈥� the trio write.

Sabato鈥檚 second tier consists of Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida (widely seen as hurt by his attempt to garner GOP support for immigration reform); Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas (not beloved by the Republican establishment); and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio (supported "Obamacare" Medicaid expansion, ouch).

Perhaps more interesting is the 鈥渨ild card鈥� tier: former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin (two serious Badger State candidates?), and Jeb Bush, who needs no further description.

OK, to review all this, we鈥檇 agree Governor Christie is falling. Bridge-gate is developing a life of its own and may turn out to be rare 鈥済ate鈥� that actually affects a politician鈥檚 fortunes. Senator Rand rising? Don鈥檛 see it. He鈥檚 got a devoted following and draws some liberal support for his anti-National Security Agency surveillance stand, but his noninterventionist foreign policy limits him in the GOP primaries.

Governor Walker? Wisconsin Democrats dislike him intensely. Come to think of it, that probably helps him 鈥� for now.

As for former VP candidate Ryan, he might be underestimated here. He鈥檚 the flavor of the week in some GOP circles. 鈥淚s Paul Ryan the man to beat in 2016?鈥� writes Allahpundit Friday at the right-leaning .聽鈥淗e鈥檚 as personally likeable as any of his rivals, and he is, technically, now 鈥榥ext in line鈥� in a party that tends to go that route when making hard choices in the primaries.鈥澛�

And Jeb Bush may be limited only by his own ambition (and by the fact that his mom keeps implying he shouldn鈥檛 run). He鈥檚 an establishment guy the conservatives mostly respect who is keeping himself out of current policy disagreements.

鈥淏ush is an obvious prospect. Despite the baggage his name carries in some circles, the reservoir of goodwill among Republicans for Bush is deep, and his popularity with the suit-and-tie crowd is high,鈥� of National Journal.

Yeah, yeah, but what do the polls say?

At this point, polls aren鈥檛 that indicative, given that they generally reflect name recognition and that it鈥檚 such a long time until voting actually starts.

But if you look at the of 2016 GOP candidates, No. 1 is ... Mike Huckabee. He鈥檚 the choice of 15 percent of self-identified Republican voters.

OK, he has been included in only a few polls, so maybe there are not enough data. Go down the list, and the alternate No. 1 is who you鈥檇 probably expect, Christie, at 12.8 percent. Ryan, Bush, and Paul are bunched closely behind him.

Walker is way down the list, at 5.3 percent. Well, at least he鈥檚 ahead of Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.

As political scientist Jonathan Bernstein pointed out Thursday, most of the ranking now going on is just punditry, meaning guesswork. He鈥檇 lump everybody who has conventional credentials for the job, and is within the GOP mainstream on policy, into one top tier and leave it at that.

Currently there is 鈥渘o one who seems to have any objective case to be in the lead,鈥� on Bloomberg Opinion.