Wisconsin recall paradox: Why Obama outpolls Romney despite Walker win
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| Washington
President Obama got some good news in the Wisconsin recall election, even as the Democrats failed to oust Republican Gov. Scott Walker: The president polled ahead of Mitt Romney by a wide margin 鈥 51 percent to 44 percent, according to the exit poll conducted by Edison Research. 聽聽
That spread matches Governor Walker鈥檚 seven-point margin over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, the Democratic nominee in Tuesday鈥檚 recall election. Five months before the general election, Wisconsin voters also preferred Mr. Obama over Mr. Romney to deal with the economy, 43 percent to 37 percent, according to the ABC News exit poll. On 鈥渉elping the middle class,鈥 Obama beat Romney, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, 47 percent to 36 percent.
Obama鈥檚 lead over Romney is smaller than his 14-point victory over John McCain four years ago in Wisconsin, a battleground state that political observers still tend to see as leaning Democratic. But given the struggling economy, it鈥檚 no surprise that Obama has lost altitude there, as he has nationally.
Still, 鈥渋n a race portrayed as potentially indicative of the president鈥檚 fortunes five months from now, it showed that he can remain competitive even in the face of the still-weak economy he鈥檇 pledged to repair,鈥 writes ABC pollster Gary Langer.
So why the apparent disconnect?
First, there鈥檚 a big difference between a recall vote and a regularly scheduled election. A solid majority of Wisconsin voters 鈥 60 percent 鈥 said recall elections are appropriate only in cases of 鈥渙fficial misconduct,鈥 according to the Edison exit poll. Some 27 percent said recalls are OK for any reason, and 10 percent said they鈥檙e never acceptable.
In addition, Wisconsin has a strong bipartisan tradition, with a history of ticket-splitting. According to the Washington Post, Walker won 17 percent of Obama supporters, while Mayor Barrett won 6 percent of Romney supporters. Exit polling showed 54 percent of Wisconsin voters approved of Walker鈥檚 performance on job creation and 52 percent approved of the recent changes to state law limiting the ability of government workers to collectively bargain over pay and benefits. Wisconsin鈥檚 unemployment rate, 6.7 percent in April, is below the national average.
Team Obama took some comfort in the exit polls. On Tuesday night, top campaign strategist David Axelrod tweeted, 鈥淏ad night in Boston...WI raises big questions for Mitt,鈥 with a link to a news report on exit polling showing Obama beating Romney in Wisconsin. Romney鈥檚 campaign headquarters is in Boston.
But there鈥檚 no denying bad news in the mix for Obama in Walker鈥檚 victory. The labor movement鈥檚 failure to oust the Wisconsin governor has only enhanced its image of decline.聽 And a dispirited labor movement, important for Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts, can鈥檛 help but hurt Obama. The November outcome is expected to hinge on which side does a better job of turning out its base voters.
Democrats sought to minimize the blow to labor and how it could affect Obama鈥檚 reelection prospects.
鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 help Obama, but it also doesn鈥檛 hurt much,鈥 said a Democratic strategist, speaking on background. 鈥淭here鈥檚 no question that labor makes a difference, but it鈥檚 more of a long-term problem.鈥
One Republican analyst sees bigger implications for labor and Obama.
鈥淭he loss will ... drive a wedge between President Obama and organized labor, which cannot be pleased at the indifference Obama showed toward this race,鈥 writes Peter Wehner on the Commentary magazine website, noting that Barrett was one of Obama鈥檚 earliest supporters in 2007. 鈥淭he president wasn鈥檛 there when organized labor needed him. They are likely to return the favor in November.鈥
Indeed, Obama opted not to campaign for Barrett, and endorsed him only the day before the election, via Twitter. But then, Romney did not campaign for Walker, either.聽