In Texas redistricting fight, are hardball politics proving a winning strategy?
| Austin, Texas
It has been a quiet week at the Texas Capitol. That might be about to change.
Democratic lawmakers, who fled the state on Aug. 3 to block a controversial redistricting effort, said Thursday they鈥檙e 鈥渂ring this battle back to Texas,鈥� after seeing encouraging signs that other states are supporting their cause. Also on Thursday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that legislators in his state plan to submit new congressional maps favoring Democrats to voters on Nov. 4.聽
Redistricting has long represented zero-sum politics in its purest form. From blue states to red states, the majority party often uses the redistricting process to maximize 鈥� or at least protect 鈥� its position as the majority party. Traditionally, this process occurs once a decade, but that can sometimes result in a map that favored the majority party early in the decade becoming unfavorable by the end of the decade.
Why We Wrote This
Redistricting has long represented zero-sum politics. The current political fight in Texas over redistricting, as well as the efforts it has inspired in California and other states, is a sign that hard-nosed politics are now, more than ever, the norm.
Texas Republicans want to address that issue before the 2026 midterms, by redrawing maps mid-cycle to secure five additional Republican seats in Congress. It鈥檚 an aggressive move, and it has prompted an aggressive response from Democratic lawmakers.聽
With the anticipated return of the protesting lawmakers, the GOP-friendly map is expected to be adopted. But the high-profile struggle in Texas 鈥� featuring lawsuits, fines, and threats of arrest 鈥� is a sign that hard-nosed, zero-sum strategies are now, more than ever, the currency of the realm in American politics.
鈥淐ompromise is increasingly seen as a dirty word, and [a word] that synonymizes with capitulation,鈥� says Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University in Houston.
But there are signs that this winner-take-all approach isn鈥檛 settling well with the general public.
A YouGov聽 this month found that a majority of Americans disapprove of the redistricting effort by the Texas GOP, though a majority of Republican voters approve of the effort. Respondents were more mixed in their opinions of the Democrats鈥� quorum break. A recent poll of likely midterm voters in Texas 鈥� conducted by Z to A Research, a firm with ties to the Democratic Party 鈥� found that a majority of voters want the state鈥檚 current special session to prioritize disaster relief in response to a devastating flash flood on July 4. A majority of likely voters oppose the redistricting effort in this special session, according to聽.
Pressing for more Republican seats
The Texas legislature concluded its regular business in early June. The redistricting legislation is being considered as part of a 30-day special session that began in late July. In mid-July, President Donald Trump said he wants聽a 鈥溾�� of the state鈥檚 congressional map so that Republicans can win more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, where the GOP holds a seven-seat majority.
The incumbent president鈥檚 party traditionally struggles in midterm elections, and with such an election next year, the White House 鈥� beginning聽, according to The New York Times 鈥� began to urge Texas Republicans to use mid-decade redistricting moves to prevent Democrats from winning a House majority and stymieing Mr. Trump鈥檚 agenda.
For some GOP lawmakers in Texas, that is reason enough to adopt more Republican-friendly maps.
鈥淚t鈥檚 what my voters want,鈥� says state Rep. Brian Harrison, who represents a House district south of Dallas. Mr. Trump won the state by 14 points last year, he notes, and his constituents 鈥渨ant bold Republican leadership.鈥�
鈥淭he future of our country hangs in the balance. The stakes couldn鈥檛 be higher,鈥� he adds.
But there are other reasons, too. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott聽 that redistricting is on the special session agenda to address concerns that the current congressional map is unlawful.
Some Texas Republicans claim they are following a precedent set by leaders in blue states, where Democratic lawmakers have aggressively gerrymandered Republicans out of power. Republicans here also say they are responding to changes in voter behavior in recent elections, particularly聽among Hispanic voters.
Chuck DeVore, a Republican who served in the California State Assembly in the early 2000s before moving to Texas, says that the congressional map in California is even more favorable to Democrats than the current Texas map is now or would be if the legislature approves the new map proposed this month.
Texas Republicans 鈥渄rew very conservative, meaning low-risk, lines in 2022,鈥� he says.
Ironically, Mr. DeVore adds, the proposed map that has sparked such partisan fury in the state could backfire on Republicans. 鈥淵ou have this potential pickup of five [seats], but I would argue you have more seats that are competitive compared to today,鈥� he says.
Fighting words
The quorum break in Texas has prompted weeks of inflamed rhetoric and fiery accusations from members of both parties.
State Democratic leaders have called the redistricting effort 鈥渃orrupt鈥� and said that they are 鈥渇ighting for America.鈥� In turn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton asked the state Supreme Court last week to permanently expel 13 absent Democrats from office. Gov. Abbott has brought a similar request to the courts. (The court has delayed ruling on the two cases.) Republican Sen. John Cornyn has asked the FBI to help find quorum breakers and said the bureau has agreed to help, though it鈥檚 unclear whether federal agents could make any arrests.
Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows, meanwhile, has said he has asked state troopers to track down quorum breakers. He鈥檚 also issued civil arrest warrants for Texas Democrats in Illinois, though an Illinois judge this week that his court lacks the authority to enforce civil warrants issued in Texas. Speaker Burrows also announced a range of financial penalties 鈥撀爄ncluding daily fines and the withholding of direct deposit paychecks聽鈥� against quorum breakers.
Strange as it might now seem, the Texas House of Representatives has historically been the institution in which compromise and bipartisanship have been most prevalent. Part of this is by design. Chamber rules have allowed members of the minority party to hold influential positions on committees. A rule that the chamber must achieve a quorum of two-thirds of its members has also incentivized Republicans and Democrats in the past to find common ground.
Texas is one of only four states with such a quorum requirement, and it is this requirement that has enabled walkouts to occur throughout state history. This is the second such walkout in four years, and it鈥檚 a sign that polarization has been taking an increasingly powerful hold on the legislature.
鈥淭he one institution where Democrats have played a larger role in the policymaking process has been the House,鈥� says Dr. Jones. 鈥淲hat we鈥檙e seeing is, even there, Democrats are starting to break with the norm of working with [Republican] leadership.鈥�
The spiral of polarization appears poised to expand beyond Texas. Governor Newsom held a rally on Thursday to launch his own redistricting effort to add five Democratic-leaning seats to his state鈥檚 congressional map. Republican lawmakers in other states, such as Missouri and Ohio, are eyeing mid-decade redistricting for their own maps.
Rep. Harrison 鈥� who was elected in Texas four years ago, after serving in the first Trump administration 鈥� says he鈥檚 drawing inspiration from what his Democratic colleagues have been doing.
鈥淚n my four years, I鈥檝e only seen one party fight aggressively for the future, and it鈥檚 not been the Republicans,鈥� he adds.
鈥淚鈥檓 sick and tired of Democrats fighting more aggressively than Republicans.鈥�
