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At this point, Watergate looks downright quaint.聽

Engulfed by scandal, President Richard Nixon was on the verge of impeachment and certain Senate conviction when he resigned, never to run for office again. His successor, President Gerald Ford, pardoned Mr. Nixon in an act of mercy toward a broken man and a bid for national healing.聽

That was nearly 50 years ago. Today, a former president under fire has a wholly different makeup, and the politics are diametrically opposite: A twice-impeached, four-times criminally indicted Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win the GOP鈥檚 presidential nomination next year. And it鈥檚 entirely possible he could win the 2024 election. He and President Joe Biden are locked in a statistical dead heat,聽.

What鈥檚 more, Mr. Trump faces felony charges, both federally and in Georgia, that go right to the essence of democracy: alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. In that light, presidential historians say, the United States is at a turning point, with two possible outcomes.聽

The charges could prompt a 鈥渞esurgence of democratic norms and principles,鈥� says聽Lindsay Chervinsky, a senior fellow at the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University.聽

Or we could be seeing the precursor to a presidency unlike any in American history, including Mr. Trump鈥檚 first term. If he does return to office, Dr. Chervinsky says, 鈥渉e鈥檚 made it very clear that he will go after his political enemies and he will not be held accountable in any way by our democratic institutions.鈥�

The idea of a second Trump administration, for now, remains a big 鈥渋f.鈥� It鈥檚 still early in the 2024 presidential cycle, and many voters haven鈥檛 fully tuned in 鈥� even including the fact that the first GOP debate is taking place Wednesday. Mr. Trump has said he will not participate. In addition, the timeline for his criminal cases remains fluid. Though聽聽for next year 鈥� one in March, another in May 鈥� it鈥檚 possible that pretrial motions could delay all four cases until after the election.

Add to the mix, too, the Justice Department鈥檚 appointment of a special counsel for Hunter Biden, the president鈥檚 son, over tax and gun charges. Questions persist over whether President Biden had knowledge of or benefited from his son鈥檚 business dealings. The president has denied the allegations. But a House GOP investigation has kept the issue in the news, deflecting some attention from Mr. Trump鈥檚 legal woes.

Still, the Biden administration 鈥� via Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith 鈥� and the Georgia and Manhattan prosecutors have set a significant precedent with their indictments of the former president.

鈥淚n the same way Ford set one in 鈥�74, this sets a very different one,鈥� says Julian Zelizer, a presidential historian at Princeton University.聽

AP/File

President Gerald Ford signs a document granting former President Richard Nixon a full pardon at the White House in Washington, Sept. 8, 1974.

In particular, 鈥渢he cumulative effect of all four, even the state and local indictments, will set a precedent that if you abuse your power, if you鈥檙e seen as going beyond what鈥檚 permissible, the law will come after you even after you鈥檙e president,鈥� Dr. Zelizer says.聽

Mr. Trump鈥檚 criminal indictments are: a Manhattan case over alleged hush payments to a porn star; a federal case over retention of classified documents; a federal case over alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election; and a Georgia case over an alleged conspiracy to overturn that state鈥檚 2020 election result.聽

In all, Mr. Trump faces 91 charges, the potential for financial ruin, and the possibility that he goes to prison for the rest of his life. Mr. Trump is widely seen as wanting to regain the presidency in part so he can pardon himself if convicted 鈥� though that would not be possible in nonfederal cases, in Georgia and Manhattan.聽

To many in the GOP primary electorate, most crucially Republicans who may have been inclined to back a fresh face in 2024, a sense of 鈥減iling on鈥� appears to have engendered sympathy. Polls show Mr. Trump鈥檚 dominance of the GOP field聽, right as his first criminal indictment was about to land.聽

But Mr. Trump鈥檚 resilience as a force in American politics goes well beyond renewed cries of 鈥渨itch hunt.鈥� It goes back to his debut as a presidential candidate in 2015, when he railed against Mexicans 鈥渂ringing crime鈥� into the U.S. and American jobs leaving the country.聽

At the time, many political observers thought Mr. Trump would flame out, but in fact, he was remaking the Republican Party before our very eyes, with his performative skills and message of conservative populism.聽

Just 2 陆 years prior, the GOP ticket was led by avatars of old-style Republicanism, dominated by fiscally conservative elites: former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.聽

Suddenly, the watchwords were 鈥淎merica First鈥� and 鈥渂uild the wall,鈥� and working-class white voters switched parties in droves. Today, many of those same voters are among Mr. Trump鈥檚 most avid supporters.聽

鈥淗is appeal never surprised me,鈥� says Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center and not a Trump fan. 鈥淗e was the person who actually was listening or somehow intuited what this segment of voters cared about.鈥�

Politics is a market, Mr. Olsen says. 鈥淓ventually somebody figures out that there鈥檚 an underserved constituency, and they serve it 鈥� and that changes things.鈥澛�

From former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to Hungarian President Viktor聽Orb谩n and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right-wing populism is a global phenomenon, and Mr. Trump fits right in.聽

But right-wing populism, in and of itself, doesn鈥檛 present a threat to American democracy, he says. It鈥檚 in the criminalization of political opposition 鈥� and the demise of the idea of a 鈥渓oyal opposition.鈥澛�

鈥淚f you cannot see the opposition as loyal,鈥� Mr. Olsen says, 鈥渢hen logic drives you to suppress the opposition in ways that mean they can鈥檛 win. That鈥檚 the threat to American democracy.鈥�