From heckled to shut out: Covering campaigns is getting harder
| Allentown, Pa.
Hopping out of a black SUV, Doug Mastriano ducks into a side entrance of the Lehigh Valley Active Life center in Allentown, where several hundred supporters have gathered for a 鈥渕eet and greet.鈥� The Pennsylvania state senator and Republican gubernatorial candidate never so much as glances at the half-dozen journalists a few yards away. It all happens so quickly, the photojournalist beside me doesn鈥檛 even have time to put her camera in focus.聽聽
For the past hour, two men in black blazers named Michael and Mark (neither would share their last names) have stood by the doors watching us as we wait in the parking lot. As soon as Mr. Mastriano is inside, Michael escorts me and the other reporters to the back of the event space, where there鈥檚 a designated press area: a small rectangle outlined in orange duct tape. He tells us we aren鈥檛 allowed to leave this area without permission. When a German reporter goes to use the restroom, Michael follows him.
At the front of the hall, Mr. Mastriano is shaking hands with supporters. We can hardly see, much less hear any of the interactions. When he finally takes the stage after about 30 minutes, a radio reporter asks if she can place her recorder up front. Absolutely not, says Michael.聽
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onMore candidates, particularly on the Republican side, deny access to reporters, while fewer voters respond to polls. That undermines our ability to understand 鈥� and accurately convey 鈥� what鈥檚 really going on.
鈥淏ut you have us here, theoretically, to cover the event,鈥� she says, trying to explain that if she can鈥檛 get good audio clips, she can鈥檛 do her job.聽聽
鈥淚 don鈥檛 know what to tell you,鈥� Michael responds. 鈥淏ut I know that your phone won鈥檛 be on that podium.鈥�
The Mastriano campaign鈥檚 well-documented聽 鈥� which has duly covered the candidate鈥檚 presence at the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in his state, and his 鈥� is somewhat of an outlier. But only somewhat.
Ask any political journalist today, and聽: The process of covering campaigns, sometimes even just tracking down the candidates, has become聽. The extreme partisanship gripping the nation is causing many campaigns to adopt greater security measures, as politicians face real threats. And partisan echo chambers are giving candidates on both sides of the aisle less of an incentive to cooperate with reporters aiming for balanced (read: not wholly positive) coverage. The potential for a small verbal slip to go viral on social media makes the downsides of press interviews seem to outweigh the benefits.聽 聽
The challenge looms larger, however, on the Republican side. Many GOP candidates now routinely echo former President Donald Trump鈥檚 verbal attacks on reporters, with 鈥渇ake news鈥� a reliable applause line at rallies. And some are taking that scorn to new levels. In Arizona, gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake reportedly to capture her testy exchanges with journalists and repurpose the conservations for campaign materials.聽
Republican candidates and the media have had contentious relationships for decades. But are noting that this election cycle feels different. The lack of access in some places has left reporters struggling to see what鈥檚 happening on the ground, creating a discomfiting sense of uncertainty. Is there a big 鈥渞ed wave鈥� coming on Nov. 8, in Pennsylvania or elsewhere? We don鈥檛 really know.聽
Can we trust the polls?聽
Of course, certain data points 鈥� like fundraising, party support, and polling 鈥� can provide at least a partial picture. The site FiveThirtyEight currently has Mr. Mastriano鈥檚 opponent, Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro, ahead by an聽. Mr. Shapiro has reported $44 million in spending, a state record, while Mr. Mastriano, a retired Army colonel, has spent less than $3 million. Equally telling, the Republican candidate has received no obvious support from his national party.聽聽
鈥淩epublicans pulled the plug from Mastriano鈥檚 campaign a long time ago,鈥� says Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report.聽
Polls tell a different story in the state鈥檚 hugely consequential Senate race, where Republican candidate and celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz has been closing the gap with Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in the final weeks. Several recent surveys now have Dr. Oz within the margin of error and that Republicans are pouring in an additional $6 million to try to get their candidate across the finish line. Still, Mr. Fetterman remains the Democrats鈥� best chance to pick up a Senate seat in a cycle that is聽
But that鈥檚 all assuming the polls are accurate 鈥� and if the past few elections are any indication, they may not be. One of the biggest challenges today, , is capturing enough Trump supporters, many of whom won鈥檛 respond to the news organizations or universities that conduct most nonpartisan surveys. In 2016, polls famously underestimated Mr. Trump鈥檚 levels of support in key states, leading reporters, strategists, and much of the public to expect a Hillary Clinton victory. Then in 2020 鈥� despite concerted efforts by pollsters to correct the problem 鈥� it essentially happened again, with many polls predicting a bigger win for Joe Biden than actually materialized.聽聽
That鈥檚 where traditional journalism can still play a key role. Political reporters can often sense momentum building by paying attention to the energy and size of crowds, talking to voters, and interacting with candidates.聽
News coverage of campaigns 鈥渟upplements what we learn from polling,鈥� says Berwood Yost, director for the Center of Opinion Research at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. 鈥淢astriano seems to not be holding any events for anyone except for those who are following him and doesn鈥檛 talk to the media. I don鈥檛 know if we鈥檙e missing his support because of that.鈥�
On a recent trip to Pennsylvania, Democratic staffers for races up and down the ballot were generally responsive to queries about campaign events. Mr. Fetterman鈥檚 press team was quick to send details about a rally in Bucks County that was also listed on multiple websites. The candidate didn鈥檛 take any questions from journalists there, but at least the campaign allowed us to talk to voters. A staffer shuttled reporters to the stage while Mr. Fetterman was speaking so we could take a photo.
By contrast, none of the campaigns for Mr. Mastriano, Dr. Oz, GOP candidate Lisa Scheller in the 7th District, or GOP candidate Jim Bognet in the 8th District responded to calls, Facebook messages, or emails. I found the time and location for Mr. Mastriano鈥檚 Allentown event in a post in a Pennsylvania voter Facebook group.聽聽
Michael and Mark told me the restrictions were for Mr. Mastriano鈥檚 safety. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 know you, and you don鈥檛 know me,鈥� said Mark.
But being so tightly cordoned off meant I couldn鈥檛 report on voters鈥� questions to Mr. Mastriano, or what he was promising them he鈥檇 do in office. And I certainly couldn鈥檛 ask him any questions about his policy proposals, such as banning abortion with no exceptions and overhauling the state鈥檚 voter registration process.
Typically at rallies I try to gauge the enthusiasm of supporters. If multiple attendees tell me it鈥檚 their first time at a political event or supporting a certain party, that鈥檚 often suggestive of a coming surge.
Yet even when I can talk to voters these days, often they don鈥檛 want to talk to me. Particularly since Mr. Trump began encouraging his audiences to boo the reporters in attendance, journalists have faced a drumbeat of hostility from everyday Americans.聽
As I stood with the other reporters in the parking lot waiting to be let in to Mr. Mastriano鈥檚 event, supporters yelled 鈥渇ake news!鈥� and 鈥渓amestream media!鈥� at us before walking inside.聽
A foregone conclusion 鈥� maybe
Veteran pollsters in Pennsylvania say there鈥檚 no doubt about Mr. Mastriano鈥檚 prospects 鈥� he鈥檚 going to lose.聽
鈥淸Mastriano鈥檚] support is Donald Trump鈥檚 base,鈥� says Terry Madonna, a senior fellow at Millersville University and a longtime Pennsylvania polling expert. 鈥淏ut here鈥檚 the thing: In Pennsylvania, if you鈥檙e a Republican, you can鈥檛 just win with rural and small-town voters. You need to get suburban support.鈥澛�
As Mr. Madonna explains, former President Trump lost Pennsylvania in 2020 despite maintaining his support among the rural, small-town voters he鈥檇 won over four years earlier, because Mr. Biden was able to in Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs.聽
In order to win statewide in Pennsylvania, a state that still has more registered Democrats than Republicans, GOP candidates have to 鈥渞each beyond the [party鈥檚] base,鈥� agrees Mr. Yost.
To that end, Mr. Mastriano鈥檚 strategy of stiff-arming the media may be hampering his ability to reach the suburban voters he needs to win over.聽
鈥淢astriano has problems because he is going to get beat significantly among those independent voters. How do you get past your base if you鈥檙e not talking to those people?鈥� says Mr. Yost. 鈥淚f you don鈥檛 engage with the media, I鈥檓 not sure you can build the momentum.鈥澛�
Still, Mr. Mastriano鈥檚 Allentown event didn鈥檛 exactly feel like a campaign that was cratering. Almost every seat in the community center鈥檚 huge rec room was filled. There was cheering, fist pumping, and a 40-minute line to take a selfie with the candidate.聽
After reading about on the steps of the Capitol in Harrisburg, I hadn鈥檛 expected to see so many people or so much enthusiasm. That doesn鈥檛 necessarily mean there鈥檚 a big red wave building, or one that would be sizable enough to lift a candidate who鈥檚 been labeled an extremist even by some fellow Republicans. But it鈥檚 also possible the press could be missing something.聽
Mr. Mastriano did not respond to repeated requests for comment.
