Seizing Venezuela鈥檚 Maduro, Trump implements his corollary to Monroe Doctrine
-
Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
With his dramatic weekend actions in Venezuela, President Donald Trump has commenced implementation of his vision for Latin America and the Western Hemisphere, presaged in his recently announced National Security Strategy.
In that document, released last month, the Trump administration declared that the United States will 鈥渁ssert and enforce a 鈥楾rump Corollary鈥� to the Monroe Doctrine鈥� 鈥� a 21st-century addition to the 19th-century vision for hemispheric relations.
The corollary proclaims a more aggressive stance toward perceived national security threats in the region and a willingness to take military and other coercive actions in pursuit of U.S. interests.
Why We Wrote This
What was behind the seizure of Venezuela鈥檚 Nicol谩s Maduro? The Trump administration鈥檚 hemispheric strategy recalls the 1904 Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, which asserts a U.S. right to intervene in Latin America in cases of 鈥渃hronic wrongdoing.鈥�
Saturday鈥檚 actions 鈥� the abduction of President Nicol谩s Maduro in Caracas to face federal drug-trafficking charges in the U.S., and the deadly bombings of military installations and some civilian buildings across the country 鈥� had 鈥淭rump Corollary鈥� written all over them.
As did the president鈥檚 repeated references to Venezuela鈥檚 oil wealth and assertions that U.S. oil companies will return to revive the country鈥檚 oil production and take back what he said the U.S. is owed.
For the administration, the 鈥淭rump Corollary鈥� is a dusting off and updating of Monroe鈥檚 , which asserts a U.S. right to intervene in Latin America in cases of 鈥渃hronic wrongdoing.鈥�
Yet for some analysts, the developments of recent weeks are less about drugs and oil 鈥� although those factors are not negligible 鈥� than about a reasserting of American power.
鈥淲hat has become clear over the past month of the new National Security Strategy and assertion of the Trump Corollary 鈥� the boat strikes and other military actions in the Caribbean, and now the actions inside Venezuela Saturday 鈥� is how this is all about power and the Trump administration reasserting that might makes right,鈥� says Britta Crandall, a political scientist specializing in Latin American studies at Davidson College in North Carolina.
鈥淒riving this escalation and emerging vision for the region is a worldview defined much less in terms of the strategic alliances built up over decades,鈥� she adds, 鈥渁nd more by the exercise of power in the pursuit of U.S. national interests.鈥�
The world will have its first opportunity to collectively respond to the U.S. actions when the United Nations Security Council meets in emergency session Monday. Also on Monday, Mr. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, are expected to be arraigned in federal court in Manhattan in New York.
Mr. Trump and other administration officials took the position they had warned Mr. Maduro as they proclaimed U.S. hegemony in the region.
鈥淭he Monroe Doctrine is a big deal, but we鈥檝e superseded it by a lot, by a real lot,鈥� Mr. Trump said in remarks to the press Saturday. 鈥淎merican dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again.鈥�
Assertions that, going forward, it will be 鈥淎merica鈥檚 interests first鈥� in the hemisphere were underscored by administration officials on Sunday news programs.
Addressing Venezuela鈥檚 oil wealth and U.S. plans to take control of it to affect Venezuelan policy, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on ABC News鈥� 鈥淭his Week,鈥� 鈥淲e鈥檙e hopeful ... that it does positive results for the people of Venezuela.鈥� But, he added, that 鈥渦ltimately, most importantly, [it would be] in the national interest of the United States.鈥�
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem told 鈥淔ox News Sunday鈥� that the U.S. would insist on leadership in Venezuela that will be 鈥渁 partner that understands that we are going to protect America.鈥� She said the U.S. is 鈥渘ot going to allow you to continue to subvert American influence and our need to have a free country ... to work with.鈥�
Saturday鈥檚 military intervention sent shock waves through Latin America and indeed the entire hemisphere.
鈥淭his action underscores that the U.S. is very blatantly looking to the countries to the south in the pursuit of resources and certain key minerals,鈥� says Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. 鈥淭he U.S. will be looking for the same 鈥榗oerced obedience鈥� from the region, and especially from smaller countries, that it imposed in the case of tariffs.鈥�
In terms of individual countries, Cuba (and its communist regime) could be the first to feel a real impact from the Venezuela intervention, some analysts say, suggesting that financially beneficial arrangements between the two countries, including state-to-state payments, are unlikely to last.
鈥淚f you consider the number of Cubans working in Venezuela who have been a significant source of hard currency for the island, it seems likely that this is going to hit hard and fast,鈥� says Dr. Freeman.
Cuba has gradually reduced its dependency on Venezuelan oil over the past decade as production has declined. But a blow to income could further impair Cuba鈥檚 already strained services, especially electrical generation.
鈥淚f blackouts start to hit the capital,鈥� Havana, Dr. Freeman says, 鈥渢hat could lead to huge demonstrations and political instability.鈥�
Others say Venezuela鈥檚 neighbor Colombia, led by leftist anti-Trump President Gustavo Petro, may also have something to worry about.
鈥淟eaders in the Western Hemisphere are looking at the world differently today and realizing that the norms we鈥檝e lived by have been eroded and changed,鈥� says Dr. Crandall. 鈥淏ut I think at the top of the list of those concerned would have to be Petro,鈥� especially after Mr. Trump warned him Saturday to watch himself, she says.
In remarks at his Mar-a-Lago resort, Mr. Trump repeated unfounded claims that Mr. Petro 鈥渉as factories where he makes cocaine.鈥� He also cited the fact that Colombian cocaine is being shipped to U.S. markets.
Beyond the hemisphere, analysts say the two key world leaders to watch for their response to the Venezuela intervention will be China鈥檚 Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
鈥淭he big powers, and especially China and Russia, are likely to draw two very different lessons about the U.S. from all of this,鈥� says Michael Desch, an international affairs professor at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana.
鈥淔irst lesson is that America鈥檚 big stick is back, and so they are going to have to take America鈥檚 perception of outside malefactors in the region into account,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut the alternative is that they see the U.S. applying a spheres-of-influence approach to relations with its near region,鈥� he adds, 鈥渁nd they seize it as an opportunity to apply something similar鈥� in their own spheres.
鈥淒oes this set the stage for a 鈥榅i-roe鈥� doctrine that China applies to Taiwan and elsewhere in the region?鈥� he quips. Or as others have speculated, does the arrest of Mr. Maduro encourage Mr. Putin to consider swooping into Kyiv to abduct Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy?
For many foreign policy analysts, Mr. Trump鈥檚 surprising declaration Saturday that the U.S. will 鈥渞un鈥� Venezuela raises questions about whether Mr. Trump, who came into office eschewing 鈥渇orever wars,鈥� is tempted to try his hand at nation-building.
After the setbacks and failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, could Mr. Trump be tempted to demonstrate his prowess with nation-building 3.0?
Mr. Rubio appeared to back away Sunday from his boss鈥檚 vow to 鈥渞un鈥� Venezuela. But benefiting Mr. Trump if he does choose that road is that Venezuela has a solid base of political and economic institutions to build upon, despite the deterioration under Mr. Maduro and his mentor and predecessor, Hugo Ch谩vez.
鈥淰enezuela is not Afghanistan,鈥� Dr. Crandall says.
Others suggest that Mr. Trump is likely to lose interest in 鈥渞unning鈥� Venezuela, especially as he realizes that the country鈥檚 dazzlingly vast oil reserves are not going to be tapped for billions in revenue anytime soon.
Dr. Desch, citing the president鈥檚 鈥渢rack record鈥� in Gaza and elsewhere, says, 鈥淚 suspect that before long, the president will declare victory in Venezuela and move on to something else.鈥�
