With midterms looming, Democrats play defense on crime
| Bristol, Pa.
Heading into Senate candidate John Fetterman鈥檚 rally on a recent Sunday, Democratic voter Kate Sommerer waves dismissively at the protesters across the street. The group, some wearing orange prison jumpsuits, are waving posters that read: 鈥淰iolent Criminals 4 Fetterman鈥� and 鈥淔elons 4 Fetterman.鈥�
鈥淚t鈥檚 because they don鈥檛 have anything else to go on,鈥� says Ms. Sommerer, rolling her eyes.聽鈥淚 think [the race] is going to be tighter than what we initially thought,鈥� she adds. 鈥淏ut I still think John鈥檚 going to pull it off.鈥�
In the final stretch before Election Day, the race for Pennsylvania鈥檚 open Senate seat has tightened considerably, with the independent Cook Political Report recently moving it back to 鈥渢ossup鈥� status. Mr. Fetterman, the hoodie-wearing lieutenant governor who previously held a double-digit lead in the polls, was forced to limit his public schedule throughout the summer while recovering from a stroke. And lately, he has been thrown on the defensive over one issue in particular: crime.
Why We Wrote This
Republicans running on crime is nothing new. But as many Democratic-run cities struggle with elevated levels of violence and disorder, the GOP message may be resonating.
It鈥檚 not just Pennsylvania. In contests across the country, Republicans are making violent crime 鈥� and charges that Democrats are unable or unwilling to curb it 鈥� a central focus of their campaigns.
In many ways, it鈥檚 an age-old political play 鈥� one that Democrats say often has racist undertones. Richard Nixon famously promised to restore 鈥渓aw and order鈥� after the civil rights clashes of the 1960s. Two decades later, George H.W. Bush released his controversial Willie Horton ad about a Black inmate who committed a rape after being granted a weekend furlough by Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis. More recently, Donald Trump made urban crime a central focus of both his campaigns, frequently highlighting violent offenses by unauthorized immigrants among others.
Crime is not the uppermost concern for most voters right now. In the New York Times/Siena poll released this week, voters from both parties overwhelmingly listed the economy and inflation as the most important issues facing the country, while the percentage choosing crime as the top issue was in the low single digits.
Still, recent shifts in the polls in several key races suggest the GOP鈥檚 attacks could be helping to move the needle. Many large Democratic-controlled cities in swing states have struggled with higher levels of crime and homelessness 鈥� as well as a general sense of disorder 鈥� since the pandemic. And several Democratic candidates are being forced to explain or distance themselves from previously held positions on things like bail reform or the controversial push to 鈥渄efund the police.鈥澛犅�
In Pennsylvania, where the number of Philadelphia homicides is already close to surpassing last year鈥檚 record high, Republican nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz has spent millions on ads calling Mr. Fetterman 鈥渟oft on crime.鈥� The Oz campaign has on the Pennsylvania Board of Pardons, where he secured releases for many nonviolent offenders but also for some convicted murderers.
鈥淟ieutenant Governor Fetterman has some outlandish views on crime and punishment, and he has not been shy about talking about them for many years. The ads you see running against him on crime are just clips of audio he鈥檚 said himself,鈥� says Chris Nicholas, a GOP political consultant and former campaign manager for the late Sen. Arlen Specter. 鈥淎dd that to the fact that violent crime in Pennsylvania is on the rise. ... You have the perfect storm for Republicans in this Senate race.鈥澛犅�
A pattern from Wisconsin to Oregon
A similar dynamic is unfolding , where Democrat Mandela Barnes 鈥� also his state鈥檚 lieutenant governor 鈥� is now trailing incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, after holding slim leads in polls over the summer. As the homicide rate in Milwaukee , Republicans have been emphasizing Mr. Barnes鈥� past support for 聽and eliminating聽.
Mr. Barnes has had to play defense. 鈥淚鈥檒l make sure our police have the resources and training they need to keep our communities safe,鈥� Mr. Barnes says to the camera while unpacking groceries
Even in deep-blue Oregon, polls show the Republican candidate for governor currently is leading amid a campaign focused largely on crime. Portland was the site of prolonged clashes between antifa, the radical left-wing groups, and law enforcement beginning in the summer of 2020. The city鈥檚聽violent crime rate rose 38% last year, and聽homelessness and drug overdoses are up sharply.聽
In Pennsylvania, 鈥淏ig John鈥� Fetterman cuts a unique figure among Senate hopefuls with his Carhartt sweatshirts, goatee, and tattoos. The former mayor of Braddock, a small, mostly Black city outside Pittsburgh,聽he blends progressive positions on issues such as marijuana legalization and LGBTQ equality with more pragmatic stances on guns and hydraulic fracturing. Supporters hail him as a rare Democratic candidate with an Everyman persona who can appeal to both urban and suburban elites as well as working-class union members.
鈥淗e鈥檚 a good person. He was the mayor of a small town and seven people got murdered and he has them all tattooed up his arm. He鈥檚 passionate,鈥� says Fetterman supporter Lisa Nastasiak. Mr. Fetterman鈥檚 right arm is in fact memorializing residents lost to violence during his tenure as mayor. He frequently cites the fact that Braddock went for more than five years without a homicide due to gun violence while he was mayor.聽聽
But Mr. Fetterman鈥檚 past comments in favor of decriminalizing all drugs, , and particularly his efforts to release convicted offenders from prison, have made him vulnerable to Republican attacks.聽In a review of three primetime Fox News programs during the month of September, Media Matters for America found Mr. Fetterman鈥檚 name was 鈥� more than triple the mentions of Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, the second-most mentioned Democratic candidate.聽
Mr. Fetterman addressed the attacks in a 10-minute rally appearance, in front of roughly 1,000 voters in a park above the Delaware River in politically crucial Bucks County.
鈥淲e鈥檙e still standing,鈥� he said, in his slower, post-stroke cadence. 鈥淲e鈥檙e more than standing, we鈥檙e winning.鈥� Mr. Fetterman raised $22 million in the third quarter, a new Pennsylvania record . And he is still leading Dr. Oz in the polls, albeit by much smaller margins.
Perhaps more important, in a , 65% of Democrats said they supported Mr. Fetterman 鈥渆nthusiastically.鈥� Just 38% of Republicans said the same about Dr. Oz, a聽Turkish American surgeon who rose to fame as a regular guest on 鈥淭he Oprah Winfrey Show鈥� in the early 2000s. A longtime New Jersey resident, Dr. Oz also starred in his own daily talk show, during which he gave health advice that鈥檚 by many in the medical community.
The Oz campaign did not respond to repeated requests for comment.聽
The suburban vote and abortion
As in most elections, the outcome in many close statewide races this year may hinge on the suburbs. While the violent crime in Philadelphia may not directly affect Bucks County鈥檚 small, suburban towns, that doesn鈥檛 mean the issue isn鈥檛 a potent one, says Bucks County Republican Committee Chair Pat Poprik.聽
鈥淲e鈥檙e law enforcement people here,鈥� says Ms. Poprik. 鈥淭he people of Bucks County feel it when they go into the city, and they don鈥檛 want it here.鈥澛�
There鈥檚 some evidence Philadelphia鈥檚 rising crime rates have begun to concern not just Republicans but Democrats. In mid-September, both parties in the state legislature voted to hold Larry Krasner, Philadelphia鈥檚 progressive district attorney, in contempt for failing to comply with a subpoena from a newly formed Select Committee on Restoring Law and Order. Republican lawmakers have been trying to impeach Mr. Krasner 鈥� who filed his own contempt motions against the Philadelphia Police Department last year 鈥� accusing him of failing to enforce the law.
Earlier in the summer, following the Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade and the right to an abortion, Democrats had begun to feel cautiously optimistic. Despite history showing the president鈥檚 party almost always loses seats in the first set of midterm elections, the sudden focus on abortion 鈥� which believe should be legal 鈥� seemed to be energizing women voters, as state after state banned the procedure.
Still, some strategists warned against relying too heavily on it. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a good issue,鈥� Democratic strategist James Carville . 鈥淏ut if you just sit there and they鈥檙e pummeling you on crime and pummeling you on the cost of living, you鈥檝e got to be more aggressive than just yelling abortion every other word.鈥�
At the Fetterman rally, the candidate鈥檚 wife, Gisele, reminds the crowd that her husband 鈥渦nderstands that our basic rights, including abortion rights, are on the line.鈥� Other Democratic candidates for statehouse races also mention abortion. Even Mr. Fetterman鈥檚 response to Dr. Oz鈥檚 crime attacks flows into an inevitable segue.
鈥淟et me ask you: What has Dr. Oz ever known about crime, or fighting crime, living in a mansion in New Jersey? Oz might be a joke 鈥� but it鈥檚 really not funny because abortion rights are on the ballot right now,鈥澛爏ays Mr. Fetterman to the cheering crowd.
鈥淸Dr. Oz] spent his career lying about magic pills, and now he鈥檚 spending his entire campaign lying about my record on crime,鈥� he says. 鈥淚鈥檓 running on my record on crime.鈥澛�
